Data Alert
India Q4 GDP growth beats expectations at 7.8%, FY26 growth 7.7%
This story was originally published at 17:56 IST on 5 June 2026
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--India Jan-Mar GDP growth 7.8%
--Informist Poll estimated India Jan-Mar GDP growth at 7.3%
--Govt raises FY26 GDP growth to 7.7% from 7.6% second advance estimate
--India Jan-Mar GDP growth 7.8% vs 7.0% year ago
--India Jan-Mar GVA growth 7.9% vs 7.1% year ago
--India FY26 GVA growth 7.9% vs second advance estimate of 7.7%
--India FY26 nominal GDP growth 8.9% vs second advance estimate of 8.6%
--India Jan-Mar agriculture sector growth 3.6% vs 3.8% year ago
--India Jan-Mar mining sector growth 5.4% vs 12.9% year ago
--India Jan-Mar manufacturing sector growth 7.3% vs 11.8% year ago
--India Jan-Mar construction sector growth 8.4% vs 8.0% year ago
--India Jan-Mar services sector growth 9.9% vs 6.8% year ago
--India Apr-Jun GDP growth revised to 6.8% vs 6.7?rlier
--India Jul-Sept GDP growth revised to 8.3% vs 8.4?rlier
--India Oct-Dec GDP growth revised to 8.0% vs 7.8?rlier
--India Jan-Mar private consumption growth 7.1% vs 5.6% year ago
--India Jan-Mar gross fixed capital formation growth 10.8% vs 6.2% year ago
--India Jan-Mar govt consumption expenditure growth 4.9% vs 3.6% year ago
--India Jan-Mar industry growth 7.3% vs 10.0% year ago
NEW DELHI – The Indian economy grew faster than expected in the March quarter at 7.8%, driven by the services, manufacturing, and construction sectors and also by capital expenditure, data released Friday by the statistics ministry showed. Agriculture and mining sectors, however, weighed on the headline growth print.
Economists polled by Informist had estimated March quarter GDP growth at 7.3%. GDP growth was 7.8% in the December quarter and 7.0% in the March quarter of 2024-25 (Apr-Mar). In FY26, GDP expanded 7.7%, data showed. This was 10 bps higher than the government's second advance estimate of 7.6%.
The GDP growth estimate for the June quarter was revised higher by 10 basis points to 6.8%, while that for the September quarter was lowered by 10 bps to 8.3%. The December quarter growth estimate was also upgraded to 8.0% from 7.8%.
Data for the March quarter and FY26 is based on the new GDP series data with FY23 as the base year. The government introduced the new series, the first in over a decade, in February. An outdated base year was a key criticism of India's national accounts by the International Monetary Fund. The last time India overhauled its GDP series was in 2015, when the base year was changed to FY12 from FY05.
The latest GDP data comes hours after the Reserve Bank of India lowered the growth forecast for FY27 by 30 bps to 6.6%, citing risks from the war in West Asia and high energy prices. The March quarter data suggests that the "economy did not witness a material impact of the West Asia conflict in the quarter, which begun at end-February 2026," ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said in a note.
The services sector grew 9.9% in the March quarter, the same as in the December quarter. The sector had grown 6.8% in the March quarter a year ago.
The manufacturing sector expanded at a robust 7.3% in the March quarter, even as growth was slowest in six quarters. The electricity sector rose 4.1% in the March quarter, the fastest pace of growth in seven quarters, and the construction sector grew 8.4% in the March quarter.
The agriculture sector grew at a three-quarter-high pace of 3.6% in Jan-Mar. The agriculture sector had expanded 1.7% in the December quarter. The mining and quarrying sector rose 5.4% last quarter, up from 4.7% in the December quarter.
Growth in gross value added rose in the March quarter to 7.9% from 7.1% a year ago.
On the expenditure front, investments and private consumption showed robust growth in the March quarter. Gross fixed capital formation, which shows investments in the economy, rose 10.8% in the March quarter, the quickest pace of growth in the new GDP, which has data available since FY24. It had grown 6.2% in Jan-Mar of FY25.
Private final consumption expenditure grew 7.1% in the March quarter, though robust but the slowest in four quarters. Government consumption expenditure growth was 4.9% in the March quarter, higher than 3.6% in the year-ago quarter.
Nominal GDP growth was 9.1% in the March quarter, slower than 9.2% in the December quarter. For FY26, nominal GDP growth was 8.9%, higher than the second advance estimate of 8.6%.
"The 4Q (Jan-Mar) GDP came in higher than expected given the robust private consumption and investment," Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank, said in a note. "Going ahead, however, we remain wary on the headwinds from the geopolitical and ElNino led supply side shocks. Tightening financial conditions, higher inflation and weak monsoons could weigh across urban and rural demand. We expect GDP to hover in the 6-6.3% range, depending on how these risks play out."
The following table shows quarterly growth in gross value added at basic prices and GDP for the March quarter and previous quarters based on the new GDP series:
| Jan-Mar 2026 | Oct-Dec 2025 | Jul-Sept 2025 | Apr-Jun 2025 | Jan-Mar 2025 | Oct-Dec 2024 | Jul-Sept 2024 | Apr-Jun 2024 | |
| Agriculture | 3.6% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.6% |
| Industry | 7.3% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 9.3% |
| Mining | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 8.3% | 11.9% |
| Manufacturing | 7.3% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 4.9% | 9.4% |
| Power and gas | 4.1% | 1.5% | 3.6% | (-)2.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | -0.2% | 9.2% |
| Construction | 8.4% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 8.7% |
| Services | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% |
| Trade, hotels | 12.5% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% |
| Financial services | 10.4% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 10.3% |
| Other services | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% |
| GVA | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% |
| GDP | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% |
Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
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Reported by Shubham Rana and Shweta
Edited by Avishek Dutta
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