India Rupee Review
Falls for 3rd day as importers buy dlrs; RBI checks fall
This story was originally published at 17:11 IST on 4 June 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Thursday, Jun. 4, 2026
By Divya Moolayattil
MUMBAI – The rupee fell against the dollar for the third consecutive day and closed at a two-week low as banks bought dollars for importers, who feared further depreciation of the rupee amid uncertainty related to peace talks between the US and Iran, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars through state-owned banks, which limited the fall of the Indian currency, they said.
"The market was choppy today because there was force from both sides. The importers were buying (dollars) and RBI was selling (dollars) at 95.75 (a dollars)," a dealer at a private sector bank said.
The Indian unit settled at 95.7850 a dollar on Thursday. almost 0.1% lower than its previous close of 95.7050. The Indian currency moved in a range of 20 paise during the day. Asian currencies traded mixed on Thursday, with the Indonesian rupiah falling and the Philippine peso gaining the most.
The rupee was also supported by a slight fall in crude oil prices owing to the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, dealers said. US President Donald Trump Wednesday said the peace talks between Iran and the US could yield results as soon as this weekend. "In theory, they're pretty close to signing a paper. We've actually gotten along with them very well," Trump said Wednesday.
However, Iranian officials said while talks were ongoing, no progress had been made so far. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were at $95.95 a barrel, down from $97.81 Wednesday. Brent crude oil prices rose to a high of $98.99 a barrel Wednesday.
Market participants said the rupee was also supported by expectations that at Friday's Monetary Policy Committee decision, the RBI will introduce measures to attract capital inflows. The Indian unit rose to 95.5900 a dollar earlier in the day.
Informist and other media reported earlier in the day, citing sources, that the Union Cabinet Wednesday gave green signal to a plan to lower the capital gains tax and withholding tax on government bonds to attract foreign investment and help protect its foreign exchange reserves. Other measures widely anticipated include schemes incentivising foreign currency non-resident deposit and interest subvention scheme for external commercial borrowings, dealers said.
Additionally, most traders have priced in that the RBI will keep the repo rate and stance unchanged on Friday, while some anticipate a change in stance. Nineteen of the 24 economists and market participants polled by Informist expect the Monetary Policy Committee to hold the repo rate at 5.25% at the end of its three-day meeting Friday.
The Nifty 50 and the Sensex closed marginally higher Thursday, which also supported the Indian unit, dealers said. "There was a correction in equities after it saw huge outflows in the past two days, which helped the rupee," the dealer said. Foreign portfolio outflows from equities for just three days in June were $1.24 billion, which is one-fourth the outflows seen in entire May.
The rupee was also supported by a fall in the dollar index on Thursday as investors' risk appetite improved amid signs that the war in West Asia would end soon. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 99.29, down from 99.55 Wednesday.
Meanwhile, persistent dollar purchases on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, led the Indian unit to give up all gains, dealers said. However, the central bank's active intervention ensured it did not fall past the key 96-per-dollar mark, they said.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 95.7850 | 95.7000 | 95.5900 | 95.7900 | 95.7050 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 285.46 | 281.07 | 285.46 | 277.48 | 283.25 |
FORWARDS
The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium erased earlier losses and ended higher Thursday as banks bought forward dollars for importers, fearing further depreciation of the rupee and noting the relatively lower levels, dealers said. Premium fell to an over two-month low earlier in the day as the RBI likely sold dollars for long-term forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions, dealers said.
The RBI was likely selling dollars for maturity in 12-18 months, they said. This week, the RBI has been aggressively selling forward dollars for long-term delivery, dealers said. Considering spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, postponing the drain on systemic liquidity.
The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.98% at 1530 IST, up from Wednesday's close of 2.94%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 285.46 paise, against 283.25 paise Wednesday.
OUTLOOK
On Friday, the rupee is expected to open largely steady owing to caution ahead of of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee decision at 1000 IST, dealers said. Dealers expect the rupee to appreciate sharply during the day if the RBI announces measures to attract inflows into the India, they said.
"We expect the rupee to rise to 94.50 (a dollar), but the rise will depend on the quantam of the measure. The rupee can rise further and touch 94.00 (a dollar) if the RBI surprises and hikes rates," a dealer at a private sector bank said.
Dealers say the rupee will drop up to around 50 paise if the central bank holds rates and does not announce any rupee-supportive measures. However, many expect the RBI to step in aggressively and protect the 96.00 a dollar level to curb the fall of the rupee.
The rupee will also continue to take cues from crude oil price movement and track developments related peace talks between the US and Iran, dealers said. Dealers now see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 96.00 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.50–96.00 against the dollar Friday.
India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index falls as mkt sentiment improves, oil down
| AT 1446 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3434 | 1.3437 | 1.3412 | 1.3417 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1618 | 1.1620 | 1.1595 | 1.1596 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5868 | 0.5877 | 0.5861 | 0.5859 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7131 | 0.7140 | 0.7123 | 0.7128 |
| USD/JPY | 159.8540 | 160.0770 | 159.6050 | 160.0180 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3910 | 1.3925 | 1.3890 | 1.3886 |
| EUR/JPY | 185.7320 | 185.7672 | 185.3490 | 185.5900 |
| CHF/USD | 1.2650 | 1.2656 | 1.2622 | 1.2615 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9184 | 0.9193 | 0.9177 | 0.9182 |
MUMBAI – The dollar index fell as market sentiment improved after Israel and Lebanon agreed to resume ceasefire, clearing the main obstacle for negotiations between the US and Iran. US President Donald Trump said Wednesday talks with Iran could yield results over the coming weekend after Iranian officials said there has been no progress in talks so far. At 1420 IST, the dollar index was 99.44, down from 99.54 Wednesday. The oil prices fell to $96.77 a barrel from Wednesday's high of $98.99 a barrel.
Meanwhile, the US House of Representatives voted to restrict Trump's ability to continue the Iran War without congressional approval. The measure passed with a 215 to 208 vote, with four Republicans joining Democrats to support it.
The euro fell 0.1% against the dollar as the Eurozone's retail sales fell by 0.4% in April against a rise of 0.8% in the March. The pound sterling fell 0.2% against the US unit.
The Japanese yen continued its losing streak for the fourth day and was down marginally against the dollar. The Canadian dollar fell 0.3%, marking four consecutive days of fall.
The Swiss franc fell 0.3% as the Swiss Consumer Price Index increased by 0.2% to 101.3 points in May from April. Core inflation was also unchanged, at just 0.3%. Swedish krona fell 0.3% against the dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: 1-yr premium at 2-mo low as RBI likely sells long-term fwd dlrs
| AT 1336 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 95.7525 | 95.7000 | 95.5900 | 95.7725 | 95.7050 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 279.77 | 281.07 | 283.57 | 277.48 | 283.25 |
MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums edged lower across tenures Thursday, with the one-year premium hitting an over two-month low, as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for long-term forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions, dealers said. The RBI was likely selling dollars for maturity in 12-18 months, they said. The one-year premium hit a low of 2.90% during the day.
"RBI's intervention was not much, just to keep the rupee around 95.75 (a dollar). Overall sentiment in the market is slightly positive on the war front, which is keeping the rupee range bound," a dealer at a public sector bank said. This week, the RBI has been aggressively selling forward dollars for long-term delivery, dealers said.
The rupee fell slightly in the spot market on Thursday, prompting the central bank to likely intervene through dollar sales, dealers said. Considering spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, postponing the drain on systemic liquidity.
However, banks bought forward dollars for importers, fearing further depreciation of the rupee, amid uncertainty around peace talks between the US and Iran, which limited losses for the forward premiums, dealers said. "Market is buying, but not very actively, ahead of MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) decision, as few expect a rate hike and others don't," the dealer said. Nineteen of the 24 economists and market participants polled by Informist expect the Monetary Policy Committee to hold the repo rate at 5.25% at the end of its three-day meeting Friday.
At 1336 IST, the 10-year benchmark US Treasury yield rose to 4.49% from 4.48% Wednesday, which also weighed on forward premiums, they said.
At 1336 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.92%, against Wednesday's close of 2.94%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 279.77 paise, against Wednesday's close of 283.25 paise. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Falls as importers buy dlrs; RBI's likely intervention supports
| AT 1239 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 95.7400 | 95.7000 | 95.5900 | 95.7450 | 95.7050 |
MUMBAI – The rupee erased earlier gains and fell slightly against the dollar Thursday as banks bought dollars for oil marketing companies and other importers, dealers said. "The importers started coming in at 95.60 (a dollar). As the rupee rises, importers will buy at dips and dollar-rupee will bounce back again," a dealer at a foreign bank said.
However, losses for the Indian unit were limited as some state-owned banks stepped in to sell dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The central bank is likely looking to prevent the Indian unit from falling past the 96.00-per-dollar mark, they said.
The Indian unit rose to a high of 95.5900 a dollar earlier in the day as crude oil prices fell slightly after Israel and Iran agreed to resume a ceasefire after a series of negotiations in Washington, dealers said. Brent crude oil edged down to $96.91 a barrel at 1207 IST from $97.81 Wednesday. It had touched a high of $98.99 a barrel the previous day. "Crude has not gone up but did not come down much either. Hence, a tight range is expected unless any fresh news comes ahead of MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) tomorrow (Friday)," a dealer at a private sector bank said.
The Indian currency was supported as market participants expect the RBI to come up with measures to boost the Indian currency at its Monetary Policy Committee decision on Friday, dealers said. "The market expects the RBI to keep rates unchanged, but unveil measures to attract inflows in the market," the dealer said. "The rupee will rise depending on the quantum of the measure that RBI will announce."
However, uncertainty around the peace talks between the US and Iran kept traders cautious. US President Donald Trump Wednesday said the talks were going on and could yield results as soon as the weekend after Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signalled there has been no progress in the talks.
Domestic equities inched up during the day, which also supported the Indian unit, dealers said. At 1142 IST, the Nifty 50 and Sensex were up 0.2?ch Thursday. "There were huge outflows from equities in the last two days, so there is a correction now, which helped rupee," a dealer at another private sector bank said. Foreign portfolio investors pulled out $1.24 billion from equities in just three days in June, which is nearly a fourth of the FPI outflows from equities seen in May.
For the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 95.55-95.85 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.80 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jun 4
MUMBAI – At 1112 IST, the rupee was at 95.6425 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.7000 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.7050. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:
| Participant | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| Public-sector bank | 95.90 | 95.80 | 95.50 | 95.40 |
| Private-sector bank | 96.00 | 95.90 | 95.55 | 95.45 |
| Private-sector bank | 95.95 | 95.80 | 95.60 | 95.40 |
| Foreign bank | 95.90 | 95.80 | 95.60 | 95.50 |
| Brokerage firm | 96.10 | 95.90 | 95.50 | 95.35 |
| Brokerage firm | 96.20 | 95.97 | 95.40 | 95.30 |
(Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Steady as Israel, Lebanon resume ceasefire, crude oil falls
| AT 0930 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 95.7225 | 95.7000 | 95.6950 | 95.7450 | 95.7050 |
MUMBAI – The rupee was broadly stable against the dollar as investors' hopes of an early end to the military conflicts in West Asia rose after Israel and Lebanon resumed their ceasefire, removing a major hurdle in the path of the US-Iran peace talks. "Market sentiment is slightly positive due to the ceasefire. Also, the US doesn't look keen to continue the war, so it is expected to end soon," a dealer at private-sector bank said.
Brent crude oil fell slightly to $96.78 a barrel at 0910 IST from $97.81 Wednesday. It had touched a high of $98.99 a barrel the previous day. US President Donald Trump Wednesday said the talks are going on and could yield results as soon as the weekend. However, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that while communication with the US is on, there has been no progress in the talks.
Meanwhile, the US House of Representatives voted to restrict Trump's ability to continue the war without congressional approval. The measure was passed with a narrow 215-208 vote, with four Republicans joining Democrats to pass it.
The rupee is likely to fall during the day, however, as banks buy dollars for oil marketing companies and other importers, dealers said. "95.70 (a dollar) is not a great level for importers, we may still see some buying. Importers could buy actively at 95.60 (a dollar)," one dealer said.
Dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to step in actively if the rupee approaches 96.00 a dollar. However, it may sell dollars through state-owned banks a little to support the rupee, they said.
For the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 95.60-95.90 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.80 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jun 4
MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| Private-sector bank | 95.90 | 95.50 |
| Private-sector bank | 95.90 | 95.50 |
| Foreign bank | 96.00 | 95.50 |
| Foreign bank | 95.90 | 95.50 |
| Foreign bank | 95.85 | 95.00 |
| Foreign bank | 95.90 | 95.60 |
| Broking firm | 95.95 | 95.40 |
(Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed as war escalates, peace talks uncertain
MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded mixed in early trade Thursday as oil prices edged down, but stayed higher amid mixed signals from the US and Iran on the status of peace talks, with US President Donald Trump saying talks were ongoing after Iran signalled there was no progress in the talks.
Trump said Wednesday talks with Iran are going "very well," and could yield results over the coming weekend even as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the communication with the US is still on but there has been no progress so far.
Meanwhile, Iran launched deadly attacks in the Persian Gulf Wednesday after the US military shot down Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz and struck Iran's Qeshm Island a day earlier. Repeated military exchanges between Washington and Tehran, as well as Israel's escalating campaign in Lebanon, have strained efforts to end the war. At 0715 IST, Brent crude oil for August futures were $96.47 a barrel, slightly down from $97.81 Wednesday. Brent crude had touched $98.99 a barrel Wednesday. Crude oil prices have risen nearly 5% from Friday.
Meanwhile, the US House of Representatives voted to restrict Trump's ability to continue the Iran War without congressional approval. The measure passed with a 215 to 208 vote, with four Republicans joining Democrats to vote for the measure.
The South Korean won rose slightly after Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol said Korea will take actions to address excessive volatility in the foreign exchange market. The won had fallen almost a percentage point Wednesday and ended up being the worst performer among Asian peers.
The Philippine peso rose slightly against the dollar. The Malaysian ringgit fell the most among Asian currencies, and was down 0.4% against the dollar. The Taiwanese dollar rose slightly and the Chinese yuan fell marginally against the dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)
End
US$1 = INR 95.7900
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Avishek Dutta
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