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Informist, Thursday, Jun. 4, 2026

By Arundathi A R

MUMBAI – As the conflict in West Asia took a new turn with the US attacking Iran's Qeshm Island Tuesday and crude oil prices staying at higher levels, analysts see investors taking a cautious stance because of which the domestic stock indices are likely to open lower Thursday. However, US President Donald Trump Wednesday also said talks with Iran are going "very well" and could yield results over the weekend. The GIFT Nifty June futures contract movement also suggested a slightly lower opening for the indices. The benchmark indices are also expected to track the early fall in other Asian markets.

"I hear the negotiation itself is going very well actually," NDTV World reported Trump saying. "It could happen... over the weekend." Trump also said he wanted to separate the US-Iran talks from those on the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to the report. "I'd like to separate it, I'd like to have a separate thing, because it is, it is separate," the president said. "We actually spoke with Hezbollah for the first time, ever."

According to Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi, while contact with the US has not been cut off, no progress has been made either in the peace negotiations, Al Jazeera reported. In another development, the US House of Representatives passed a measure that sought to stop Trump from taking further military action against Iran, according to a BBC report.

Though the Brent Crude August futures fell over 1% to $96.72 a barrel from Wednesday's close, there is an element of caution as the price remains above $95 a barrel. In a week, the August futures have gained over 6%. Investors will monitor the crude oil price trend as it is seen dictating the market's direction.

At 0743 IST, the GIFT Nifty June futures contract was down 0.1% from Wednesday at 23301.50 points. This movement hints at a lower opening for the equity market, as the level is down more than 100 points from the Nifty 50's previous close of 23405.60 points. "The Nifty (50) index once again bounced back from the lower band support of a downward-sloping consolidation range," Vipin Kumar, technical and derivatives analyst at Globe Capital Market, said. "Immediate supports are placed at the 23200–23000 spot levels, while resistances are around the 23800–24000 spot zones."

Equity markets in June are expected to remain range-bound with a selective positive bias, supported by resilient domestic
fundamentals, strong institutional liquidity, and continued government-led capital expenditure, Religare Broking said in a market report Wednesday. However, the geopolitical concerns, volatility in commodity prices, and currency movements are expected to keep the overall sentiment cautious. "Quality and earnings execution are likely to remain the key drivers of returns," the brokerage said in its report.

Foreign investors net sold shares worth INR 56.17 billion Wednesday, down from INR 83.63 billion on the previous day. Domestic investors continued supporting the equity market by net buying shares worth INR 57.41 billion. The foreign institutional investor flows rose over 73% in a week.

"A depreciating INR, elevated crude oil prices, persistent FII outflows, and an unstable Middle East (West Asia) remain the key headwinds to keep an eye on," Vipin Kumar said. Investors are also likely to remain cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee's decision on the repo rate Friday. The GDP for the March quarter and the provisional estimate for the financial year 2025–26 (Apr-Mar) will be released Friday by the statistics ministry.

Among Asian indices, which were all in the red in early trade, South Korea's KOSPI was the big loser, down over 2% after rising for three sessions in a row. All three major US indices also closed lower Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down over 1%.  End

US$1 = INR 95.7050

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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