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Informist, Wednesday, Jun. 3, 2026

By Shreya Shetty

MUMBAI – The onset of southwest monsoon over Mumbai is expected around Jun. 14 if the monsoon trough flows normally after it advances over Kerala, according to Bikram Singh, director of the India Meteorological Department's regional meteorological centre, Mumbai. "If there is normal flow (of the monsoon trough) after it onsets over Kerala on Jun. 1, then it takes around 10 days to hit Mumbai, so onset around Jun. 14 is likely," he said. The normal date of monsoon onset over Mumbai is Jun. 11. 

According to the Indian weather department, the monsoon trough is likely to hit Kerala on Thursday, three days after its normal date of Jun. 1. Kerala is the first point of the monsoon's advancement over the Indian mainland. Normally, beginning Jun. 1, the southwest monsoon advances northwards and covers the entire country around Jul. 8. 

"Conditions are favourable for onset of monsoon over south India currently," Singh said. Unfavourable weather conditions in the past two weeks, such as weather systems over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, along with the lack of continuous rainfall over Kerala, Karnataka, and Lakshadweep Islands have kept the monsoon trough from advancing normally. 

"The monsoon trough moves in pulses. If there is stability in the movement of the trough, then monsoon advancement over Mumbai is likely on Jun. 14. If there is no stability, then we cannot say when it will arrive in Mumbai," Singh said. Earlier, based on the Indian weather department's forecast of early onset of monsoon over Kerala on May 26, Singh had forecast an earlier advancement over Mumbai as well, around Jun. 5–6. 

Since Sunday, Mumbai and its suburbs have been recording brief spells of rainfall, marking the first such instance of pre-monsoon showers over the city for the season. "There are pre-monsoon showers and thunderstorms scattered across the city and its suburbs, and they are likely to continue for the next few days. Different parts will keep seeing light rainfall here-and-there," Singh said. 

In the last 24 hours, the Santacruz weather station in Mumbai recorded 12.8 millimetres of rainfall, 6.1% below normal for the period, data from the Mumbai regional meteorological department showed. Though the brief wet spell brought relief from the hot weather in the city, humidity levels remain high, suggesting that sultry weather conditions are likely to continue over the next few days.

In 2025, the southwest monsoon had hit the Kerala coast on May 24, eight days ahead of its normal date of Jun. 1. The monsoon trough advanced rapidly over south India and hit Mumbai on May 26, 16 days before its normal onset date.  End

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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