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Informist, Tuesday, Jun. 2, 2026

 

By Afra Abubacker

 

NEW DELHI – Gold prices are likely to remain largely rangebound in June amid renewed uncertainty about a possible US-Iran peace agreement. While high crude oil prices and dampened expectations of early monetary easing in the US are likely to put pressure on international gold prices, a weak rupee may cushion domestic gold prices.

 

As per the median of estimates from 10 broking firms polled by Informist, the August gold futures contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India is expected to be in the range of INR 151,600-INR 165,000 per 10 grams in June. On COMEX, gold is seen in the range of $4,345-$4,750 per ounce during the month. At the time of writing, the August contract on COMEX was up 1.2% at $4,558.4 per ounce.

 

"The problem is that gold is hanging between US and Iran (negotiations)," Ravinder Rao, founder, Arthavrksh Financial Services, said. "One day there is news that they are coming up with a deal and the next day there are reports of tension again. Traders are confused." Rao expects COMEX gold to move in a broad range of $4,300-$4,850 in June. Any decisive move will depend on how the negotiations progress and crude oil prices move, he added.

After hitting a record high of $5,600 in late January, gold prices have entered a largely corrective phase. The yellow metal has fallen 14.5% since the US and Israel jointly attacked Iran on Feb. 28. The price of Brent crude oil has risen over 36% since the war broke out and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted.

 

While geopolitical uncertainties typically boost gold prices, the sharp increase in crude oil prices has shifted the focus towards inflation risks. This has weakened expectations of an early interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, reducing the appeal of the non-interest-yielding yellow metal. According to CME's FedWatch tool, over 98% of traders expect the US Federal Reserve to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% at its June meeting, and 8.4% expect it to raise the rate by 25 basis points at the July meeting.

 

In May, the price of gold on COMEX closed 1% lower from April's level but rose 4% on MCX. Analysts largely attributed the rise in MCX gold to India's gold import duty hike and the rupee's depreciation. The Indian currency hit a lifetime low of 96.96 against the dollar last month.

 

"The May MCX-COMEX divergence was purely policy-driven, keeping MCX structurally elevated while COMEX stayed muted. The primary drivers were a weak rupee, which has slid nearly 7% this year, and the sudden May 13 decision to more than double the import duty from 6% to 15%. This instantly pushed up the landed cost of gold, forcing MCX to rally even while international prices remained relatively quiet," Ravinder Sharma of SMC Global Securities said.

 

Sharma, however, pointed out that the duty hike had adversely hit physical demand for gold and retail outlets were forced to offer discounts. "But the hidden twist was the massive pushback from the physical market," he said. "Right after the tariff hike, retail demand tanked by about 70%, especially with official calls to hold off on gold buying. Because dealers were already sitting on massive inventory imported earlier in the year, they had no choice but to slash prices."

 

Sharma expects gold on MCX to remain stronger than on COMEX in June as well, with likely intermittent corrections. "Even if international gold prices witness consolidation or mild corrections, a weaker rupee can continue to cushion MCX gold and keep domestic prices elevated," he said. However, he stressed that sustained upside will still depend on global gold prices, rupee movement, and geopolitical developments.

 

However, Arthavrksh's Rao does not see MCX gold prices being supported by a weak rupee, as he expects the rupee to appreciate back to the INR 94 per-dollar level. He said the impact of the import duty hike has been largely absorbed by the market and expects prices to consolidate before the next major move. 

 

Motilal Oswal Financial Services sees gold prices falling to INR 138,000 if the major support at INR 147,000 is broken. On the upside, it sees prices moving to INR 170,000 if the immediate resistance of INR 165,000 is breached.

 

The Reserve Bank of India probably sold gold reserves worth $12 billion in the two weeks ended May 22 while buying $7.5 billion of foreign currency assets, Bloomberg reported. The reported value of RBI's bullion reserves fell despite the hike in import duty on the yellow metal. The hike should have boosted the value of the central bank's bullion. The fall suggested it was selling gold to protect its foreign exchange reserves.

 

Following are the estimates from 10 brokerages for gold prices in June, in alphabetical order of brokerage name:

 

Brokerage	COMEX support ($/oz)	COMEX resistance ($/oz)	MCX support (INR/10 gm)	MCX resistance (INR/10 gm)
Arthavrksh Financial Services	4,300	4,850	155,000	164,000
IndusInd Securities	4,340	4,850	150,000	170,000
Kedia Advisory	4,360	4,740	148,500	162,300
Kotak Securities	4,400	4,600	155,000	165,000
LKP Securities	4,350	4,750	155,000	164,000
Motilal Oswal Financial Services	--	--	147,000	165,000
Nirmal Bang	4,380	4,800	150,000	165,500
Prithvi Finmart	4,340	4,680	156,000	164,000
SMC Global Securities	4,430	4,650	153,200	165,000
Ventura Securities	4,300	4,750	150,000	165,000
Median	4,350	4,750	151,600	165,000

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.26

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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