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Informist, Tuesday, Jun. 2, 2026

 

By Taniva Singha Roy

 

MUMBAI – Crude oil prices are expected to remain firm in June, supported by persistent supply-side concerns despite tentative progress for a ceasefire between the US and Iran, analysts said. While easing geopolitical tensions could cap gains, the damage to energy infrastructure across West Asia is likely to keep prices elevated for an extended period, they said.

 

"I don't see oil prices falling below $80 a barrel. The market may gradually move higher and retain an upward bias. Even if a deal is signed, the downside will remain protected due to supply concerns and production losses resulting from the West Asia conflict," Manoj Jain, analyst at Prithvi Finmart, said.

 

According to the median estimate of an Informist poll of nine brokerages, the June crude oil contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India is seen in a range of INR 7,900-INR 9,500 per barrel. The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange is expected to trade between $80.0 and $98 per barrel.

 

At 1640 IST, the most-active July NYMEX crude oil contract was down 1.1% at $91.09 per barrel, while the most-active June MCX crude oil contract fell 1% to INR 8,446 per barrel.

 

The US and Iran have reportedly reached a preliminary agreement to extend the ceasefire and potentially ease restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the agreement still requires formal approval of US President Donald Trump and has not been fully confirmed by Iranian authorities.

 

Analysts said supply concerns are likely to continue supporting prices. The International Energy Agency expects global oil supply to decline by 3.9 million barrels per day in 2026 to 102.2 million barrels per day, even assuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalise from June.

 

Geopolitical risks remain elevated as the US Central Command recently reported intercepting Iranian drones, missiles and small boats to ensure safe passage for US-flagged vessels in the region. Meanwhile, a major fire at the Fujairah Oil Industrial Zone in the UAE, which authorities attributed to an Iranian drone strike, has heightened concerns over the security of one of the world's most critical energy transit routes.

 

Oil prices are expected to rise due to the uncertainty regarding the Strait of Hormuz. It gets aggravated by Houthi rebels, warning that they could shut down the Bab-al-Mandab strait, with one official stating that "no force would be able to reopen it". "The closure of the straits will lead to higher inflation, and the chances of central banks increasing the rates will be stronger," Smit Bhayani, research analyst at Nirmal Bang Securities, said.

 

"With Trump's comments offering cautious optimism but stopping well short of a concrete diplomatic breakthrough, oil volatility looks set to persist," Kaynat Chainwala, assistant vice president, Commodity Research at Kotak Securities, said in a note.

 

Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Advisory, expects crude oil prices to remain supported by supply disruptions. "Even if a peace deal materialises, substantial damage has already been inflicted on oil infrastructure and refineries. Restoring production and refining capacity will take time, which should keep prices on an upward trajectory," he said.

  

Analysts also pointed to weather-related risks. A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico could disrupt refinery operations and crude production, further tightening supplies. Demand is also expected to remain resilient as several countries have drawn down their strategic reserves. Kedia said the damage to Qatar's energy infrastructure could take up to 18 months to fully repair, potentially constraining regional supplies over the medium term.

 

Market sentiment turned sharply bullish after reports said that Iran had suspended communications with the US in response to Israel's expanding military operations in Lebanon. The development renewed fears of supply disruptions in West Asia, triggering fresh buying in energy markets.

 

However, weak demand from China and Europe continues to pose a downside risk to prices. Nevertheless, any disruption to West Asian oil supplies is likely to offset demand concerns and keep the market supported, Kedia Advisory said, citing Goldman Sachs.

 

The following are the estimates of brokerages for crude oil prices in June:

 

Brokerage	MCX support (in INR)	MCX resistance (in INR)	NYMEX WTI support (in $)	NYMEX WTI resistance (in $)
Arthavrksh Financial Services	7,400	7,900	90	98
IndusInd Securities	7,500	10,000	75	105
Kedia Advisory	7,780	9,550	84.6	97.4
Kotak Securities	8,200	9,200	86	96
LKP Securities	7,500	9,500	80	98
Nirmal Bang	7,500	10,000	80	102
Prithvi Finmart	8,000	9,440	80	104
SMC Global Securities	8,000	9,200	78	95
Ventura Securities	8,000	9,975	85	105
MEDIAN	7,900	9,500	80	98

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.26

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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