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Informist, Tuesday, Jun. 2, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply against the dollar Tuesday as banks bought dollars for importers and foreign fund outflows amid rising uncertainty around a peace deal between the US and Iran, dealers said. However, losses for the Indian unit were limited as the Reserve Bank of India actively intervened through dollar sales, they said. 

 

"There was some escalation yesterday (Monday), and it cooled down swiftly. But it is not possible to predict when war will end, so importers will hedge, when they see chances of escalations," a dealer at a public sector bank said. "There is an expected outflow of around $3 billion due to MSCI rebalancing, some of it happened Monday and Tuesday."

 

The rupee settled at 95.2650 a dollar on Tuesday, 0.3% lower than its previous close. The Indian currency moved within a 25-paise range Tuesday. Asian currencies traded on a mixed note, with the Taiwan dollar being the worst performer Tuesday. 

 

The Indian unit started the day on a weak note as lack of progress in US-Iran peace talks kept investors on the edge, dealers said. However, the market took some positive cues from US President Donald Trump's statement that negotiations were progressing rapidly. Trump said he expects to reach an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the strait "over the next week." 

 

Dealers said it was the RBI's persistent dollar sales through state-owned banks that kept the Indian unit from falling even further. "The RBI was the only seller in the market, and it was present throughout the day at multiple levels," the dealer said. "If RBI had not stepped in, then rupee would cross 96 (a dollar) easily," the dealer said. The RBI likely sold nearly $1 billion-$1.5 billion in the spot market Tuesday, dealers said.

 

The central bank has been actively intervening in the spot market for the last two weeks. The Indian unit has recovered almost 1.7% from its record low of 96.9600 a dollar, hit on May 20. 

 

Further, crude oil prices fell slightly as Trump said that Israel and Lebanon would maintain a truce after Iran threatened to pause negotiations if Israel continued strikes on Lebanon. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were $93.71 a barrel, down from $94.98 Monday. Brent crude oil prices touched a high of $97.8 a barrel Monday after Iran threatened to attack Israel. 

 

Sustained foreign portfolio outflows from Indian markets also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. Foreign portfolio investors pulled out almost $4.91 billion from Indian equities in May, of which $2.32 billion was withdrawn on Friday itself. 

 

Domestic equity indices, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex, were up 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, Tuesday. A fall in the dollar index also supported the rupee. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 99.13, down from 99.18 Monday and 98.89 Friday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2650	95.0600	95.0300	95.2825	94.9900
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	288.50	297.75	298.00	288.00	299.68

 

 

FORWARDS 

Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell sharply across tenures Tuesday as the RBI likely sold dollars for long-term forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in 12-18 months, they said. "The RBI did buy-sell swap in forwards to reduce the hedging costs and to also keep the rupee liquidity," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

However, the fall in forwards was limited as importers bought forward dollars, hedging against further rupee depreciation, dealers said. The one-year forward dollar rupee premium touched an over three-week low of 288.00 paise or 3.02% during the day Tuesday. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 3.03%, down from the previous close of 3.16%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 288.50 paise, against Monday's close of 299.68 paise.  

 

OUTLOOK 

On Wednesday, the rupee will continue to take cues from the movement of crude oil prices with the peace deal between the US and Iran continuing to be in focus, dealers said. "Higher crude prices continue to raise concerns over India's import bill and inflation outlook, keeping sentiment cautious in the forex market," Jateen Trivedi, vice-president research analyst - commodity and currency at LKP Securities, said in a note.

 

Investors will also keep a close watch on the RBI's monetary policy meeting, scheduled from Wednesday to Friday, along with key US economic data including non-farm payrolls and unemployment figures this week. "On Friday, we will get insight on the RBI's measures for the foreign exchange market. Till then, the rupee will be on a depreciating path," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

Dealers expect oil companies and other importers to continue buying dollars, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Persistent foreign portfolio outflows may also weigh on the Indian unit. Market participants expect the RBI to continue intervening through dollar sales and prevent a sharp depreciation of the rupee. 

 

Dealers now see strong support for the Indian currency at 95.30 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.00-95.50 against the dollar Wednesday. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index steady despite tensions in West Asia

 

	AT 1521 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3460	1.3476	1.3445	1.3455
EUR/USD	1.1650	1.1665	1.1642	1.1657
NZD/USD	0.5952	0.5986	0.5952	0.5982
AUD/USD	0.7177	0.7190	0.7171	0.7192
USD/JPY	159.4610	159.4980	159.3040	159.3140
USD/CAD	1.3820	1.3823	1.3790	1.3799
EUR/JPY	185.7500	185.9800	185.6330	185.7889
CHF/USD	1.2754	1.2802	1.2751	1.2791
EUR/CHF	0.9134	0.9136	0.9108	0.9112

 

MUMBAI – The dollar was steady Monday as investors were optimistic about a peace deal between Iran and the US but were also cautious because of renewed tensions in West Asia. At 1444 IST, the dollar index fell to 98.99 from 99.00 Friday.

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netayahu ordered the country's military to expand its attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. The US and Iran Sunday traded strikes, potentially complicating negotiations over a framework for a deal to end the war in the region.

 

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran's parliament and the country's chief negotiator, Monday said the US had breached its ceasefire agreement with Iran by continuing its blockade of Iranian ports and failing to restrain its ally Israel from escalating attacks in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Iran and Oman are the only two countries that have the right to "exercise sovereignty" over the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump said on social media Monday, "Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the USA." 

 

The escalation in West Asia resulted in a surge in crude oil price. At 1444 IST, Brent crude oil for August delivery was priced at $94.05 a barrel, up from $91.12 Friday.

The euro was marginally down against the dollar as Germany's manufacturing sector stalled in May amid rising costs because of the war. The headline S&P Global Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was at a four-month low of 50.1, down from 51.4 in April. Germany is the largest economy in the eurozone. The pound sterling rose 0.1% against the dollar.

 

The Japanese yen fell 0.2% against the dollar as the country's manufacturing sector grew in May at a slightly slower pace, as record export order growth was offset by surging costs. S&P Global Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was at 54.5 in May, down from 55.1 in April. 

 

The Canadian dollar was down 0.1% against the dollar. The Swiss franc fell 0.2% and the Swedish krona fell 0.1% against the dollar. Investors await US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index data due Monday and US non-farm payroll data due later this week.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: 1-year premium up as importers buy fwd dlrs noting rupee's rise

 

	AT 1415 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.8925	94.9700	94.7300	94.0375	95.0000
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	302.67	298.82	309.79	298.18	294.48

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium snapped its six-day losing streak and rose sharply as banks bought forward dollars on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels in the spot market, dealers said.

 

"Importers are hedging continuously given the better range of the rupee. Oil is also going upside, so importers will come in," a dealer at a foreign bank said. The one-year premium rose to a high of 309.79 paise or 3.27?rlier Monday. The rupee rose sharply to 94.7200 a dollar earlier in the day, likely due to the Reserve Bank of India's intervention through dollar sales and some foreign inflows, dealers said. 

 

However, a rise in US Treasury yields limited the rise in forward premiums, according to dealers. At 1331 IST, US Treasury yields were at 4.46%, up from 4.44% Friday and 4.45% Thursday.

 

At 1331 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 3.20%, up from the previous close of 3.10%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 303.07 paise, against Friday's close of 294.48 paise.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Erases gains on importers' dollar buys; RBI dlr sales support

 

	AT 1236 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.9750	94.9700	94.7300	94.9900	95.0000

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased all of its early gains against the dollar as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, noting the appreciation of the rupee, dealers said. "With oil and the rupee rising, importers have come in, the demand (for dollars) is normal," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.

 

The rupee rose to 94.7300 a dollar in early trade, likely due to the Reserve Bank of India's intervention through dollar sales, according to dealers. "RBI was unwinding short positions in the morning. Around 80-85 (94.80-94.85) the PSUs' were actively selling (dollars)," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

The RBI has been intervening in the spot market actively of late to support the rupee, with some dealers saying it sold almost $3 billion in the spot market on Friday. India's foreign exchange reserves fell to an over one-year low of $681 billion in the week ended May 22 from an all-time high of $728.49 billion in the week ended Feb. 27, just before the war in West Asia started.  

 

A surge in crude oil prices amid rising tension between Israel and Lebanon also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. At 1300 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were $93.9 a barrel, up from $91.12 Friday.

 

The rupee was also under pressure due to outflows from domestic equity linked to MSCI rebalancing, dealers said. Global index provider MSCI excluded shares of Hyundai Motor India Ltd., Jubilant Foodworks Ltd., Kalyan Jewellers India Ltd. and Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd. from the index Friday. At the same time, MSCI added shares of Adani Energy Solutions Ltd., Federal Bank Ltd., Indian Bank Ltd., Multi Commodity Exchange Ltd., and National Aluminium Co. Ltd. to its global standard index, which led to some inflows, dealers said. "There were also inflows in the morning, which pushed the rupee up along with RBI's dollar sales," the dealer said.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 94.65- 95.20. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 94.70 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jun 1

 

MUMBAI – At 1133 IST, the rupee was at 94.9000 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 94.9700 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.0000. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.45	95.10	94.75	94.65
Private-sector bank	95.40	95.00	94.75	94.50
Private-sector bank	95.30	95.10	94.65	94.50
Foreign bank	95.50	95.00	95.70	94.55
Brokerage firm	95.20	95.00	94.80	94.60
Brokerage firm	95.50	95.30	94.75	94.50

 

(Divya Moolyattil)

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Indian Rupee: Sharply up on RBI intervention; importers' dlr buys may weigh

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.7650	94.9700	94.7500	94.9700	95.0000

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply in early trade Monday as banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, to support the rupee, dealers said. "The RBI stepped in at mutiple levels, mildly. PSUs were all selling mildly. We have to see if RBI continues to support through out the day," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

A rise in crude oil prices continued to exert pressure on the rupee, dealers said. Crude oil prices rose 2% Friday as Israel ordered its military to expand invasion on Lebanon against Hezabollah. At 0920 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were $92.93 a barrel, up from $91.12 a barrel Friday. 

 

Dealers expect importers to step in and buy dollars, noting relatively better rupee levels and a rise in oil prices, dealers said. "Companies' flow will be seen today (Monday), so the rupee should soon reverse to 95.50 levels soon with no signs of war abating," a dealer at another private sector bank said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 94.65- 95.20. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 94.65 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jun 1

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee on Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT
Public sector bank	95.00	95.45
Private sector bank	95.00	95.30
Foreign bank	94.80	95.20
Brokerage firm	94.60	95.20
Brokerage firm	94.80	95.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as oil rises on US-Iran deal uncertainty

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar in early trade Monday as crude oil prices jumped more than 2?ter Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered troops to expand their invasion into Lebanon against the Hezabollah, despite a ceasefire announced more than six weeks ago. Investors were also cautious as US President Donald Trump Saturday said the US and Iran were 'close to a very good deal,' but also considered an alternative to return to the war.

 

Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were $93.3 a barrel, up from $91.12 Friday. Brent crude had fallen nearly 2% Friday on expectations that the US and Iran had reached a ceasefire agreement. Israel's escalation in Lebanon has become a major sticking point in negotiations to end the war, according to media reports. 

 

The dollar also firmed up as investors shifted to safe haven assets amid uncertainty in the US-Iran peace deal, which put pressure on Asian currencies. At 0730 IST, the dollar index rose to 99.01 from 99.00 Friday. 

 

The South Korean won was 0.5% lower against the dollar even as the country's exports rose 53.2% on year to a record high of $87.75 billion in May after chip sales hit a record on the AI investment boom, data released Monday showed. The S&P Global purchasing managers index for South Korea was 54.8 in May, up from 53.6 in April, its highest since March 2021.

 

The Malaysian ringgit was 0.1% up against the dollar and the Singaporean dollar was 0.1% down against the dollar. The Philippine peso and Thai Bat fell 0.3% against the dollar. The Taiwanese dollar rose 0.3% against the dollar. The Chinese yuan was down marginally against the dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.2650

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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