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Informist, Monday, Jun. 1, 2026

By Arundathi A R

MUMBAI – Analysts expect the headline stock indices to fall further Tuesday as global uncertainties persist. The rebound in crude oil prices is also expected to turn market sentiment negative. Technically, a fall below the current support band of 23300–23100 points will invite further downside momentum in the market. At 1654 IST, the Brent crude oil August futures contract was up over 3% at $94.09 per barrel.

"The index has now retreated towards the critical 23300–23100 support band, which remains the key level for the medium-term trend," Jigar Patel, senior manager at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, said. "As long as this zone holds, the broader structure remains constructive. On the upside, 23800 is the immediate hurdle while a decisive move above 24100 is required to trigger the next leg of the rally." Monday, the Nifty 50 settled 0.7% lower at 23382.60, down 165.15 points.

For the Indian markets, the key now is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Emkay Global Financial Services said in its strategy report Sunday. "If the deal goes through in the coming days, we would expect Brent to correct sharply toward $75-80/bbl, along with rupee appreciation, and the peace trade in India (OMCs, discretionary, aviation, autos) to re-rate meaningfully," it said in the report.

It also said that the focus will now shift to the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee's decision. "We expect the RBI to remain on hold next week, which is positive for the consumption recovery story and the earnings cycle," according to Emkay Global.

Brokerage Motilal Oswal Financial Services Monday said the March quarter earnings of the companies under its coverage were better than expected. Banking, financial services, and insurance, metals, oil marketing companies, technology, telecommunications, and automobile sectors drove the healthy performance for the quarter, it said. However, it sees weakness in the corporate earnings going ahead. According to the brokerage, the Nifty 50 constituents collectively posted a single-digit rise in bottom line for the eighth consecutive quarter, something that has happened for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. The large-cap companies under its coverage posted 12% year-on-year earnings growth while mid-cap companies showed improvement and delivered growth of 36%.

The aggregate earnings of companies for the March quarter covered by Motilal Oswal rose 16% on year, which was higher than the estimate of an 8% year-on-year gain. The bottom line of BFSI companies grew 18% on year, higher than the estimate of 11% growth, according to the brokerage. Metals and oil marketing companies beat the estimates for profit by a wide margin. Metal companies posted an aggregate profit growth of 50% on year, sharply up from the view of a 24% growth on year. The profit of downstream oil companies was up 62% on year, beating an estimate of 7% year-on-year growth. 

On Friday, foreign institutional investors were net sellers of shares worth INR 211.06 billion. Domestic investors net bought shares worth INR 167.64 billion. "The sudden spike in volatility was largely attributed to the MSCI May 2026 index rebalancing, which triggered heavy passive institutional flows during the closing session (of Friday)," Ajit Mishra, senior vice-president of research at Religare Broking, said.

According to global equity research firm Bernstein, earnings downgrades in the Indian corporate sector have resumed, with the estimates for the financial year 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) trimmed by 3% so far. "Macro support looks thin in the near term," NDTV Profit posted on its X account, citing the brokerage. The brokerage expects earnings risks to skew to the downside, even without a geopolitical shock.

Global brokerage CLSA said artificial intelligence has necessitated a pricing model shift from seat-based to consumption-based for Indian IT companies, according to the post on X by NDTV Profit. The latest guidance and earnings-per-share numbers continue to be robust, according to the brokerage. It also sees IT companies with strong partnerships with software-as-a-service providers to have healthy demand for product engineering and implementation-related work.

The Indian rupee settled at 94.9900 a dollar Monday. It settled above the 95-per-dollar level for the first time since May 8. "Rupee is expected to trade within a range of 94.50–95.50, with focus shifting to this week's key US data, including Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment figures, which will influence dollar direction and global currency sentiment," Jateen Trivedi, commodity and currency research analyst at LKP Securities, said in a note.  End

US$1 = INR 94.9900

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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