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Informist, Monday, Jun. 1, 2026

 

By Shweta

 

NEW DELHI - The Indian economy remained resilient in the March quarter amid the war in West Asia, even as the pace of growth likely slowed. According to the median of an Informist Poll of 16 economists, India's GDP growth slowed down to 7.3% in the March quarter from 7.8% a quarter ago. GDP had grown 7.0% a year ago.

 

At 7.3%, GDP growth in the March quarter would be the lowest in three quarters but in line with the government's implied growth estimate. It would be much higher than the Reserve Bank of India's December forecast of 6.5%.

 

"The global energy shock will clearly weigh on momentum, though it hit only in the last month of the quarter and was partly offset by indirect government subsidies that limited the pass-through of fuel prices," Moody's Analytics said in a note.

 

Since the start of the war in West Asia on Feb. 28, the Indian government has taken measures to limit the impact on consumers, such as excise duty cuts on petrol and diesel. Oil companies kept retail fuel prices steady in India during March and April — petrol and diesel pump prices were raised by over INR 7 per litre in May — even as global energy prices spiked.

 

"Mainly, it is under control. We did not see much impact of the war in West Asia. However, there was some slowdown due to transportation," Gaura Sen Gupta, chief economist at IDFC FIRST Bank, said. "Also, the corporate quarterly performance was good despite the higher input cost."

 

Gross value added growth in the March quarter is seen in line with GDP growth at 7.3%, according to the poll. "The sectoral composition points to an uneven growth mix," ANZ Banking Group said.

 

"Industrial activity appears to have softened, with slower manufacturing volumes, exports and margin pressures weighing on output," economists at ANZ Banking Group said in a note. "Services remained a key support but have moderated sequentially, indicating some loss of momentum in trade- and contact-intensive segments."

 

If GDP growth is indeed 7.3% in the March quarter, it would translate into full-year growth of 7.6% for 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), assuming no change in growth prints for Apr-Dec. The National Statistics Office's second advance estimate, released in February, pegged FY26 GDP growth at 7.6%. This implied the Indian economy would expand 7.3% in Jan-Mar.

 

The government will release the GDP data for the March quarter and provisional estimates for FY26 at 1600 IST Friday, after the RBI's Monetary Policy statement. The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep the repo rate steady at 5.25% on Friday, but calls for a rate hike to defend the rupee have increased.

 

GDP data for the March quarter was earlier scheduled to be released on the last working day of May. The statistics ministry has changed the release date to Jun. 7, saying that many companies furnish their financial statements for Jan-Mar near the end of May.

 

The following table details the GDP growth estimates of economists:

 

Organisation	Jan-Mar GDP growth
Pantheon Marcoeconomics	6.1%
Standard Chartered Bank	6.6%
India Ratings and Research	6.7%
Capital Economics	6.8%
ANZ Banking Group	7.0%
ICRA	7.0%
ICICI Bank	7.1%
State Bank of India	7.2%
Kotak Mahindra Bank	7.3%
Moody's Analytics	7.3%
Nomura	7.3%
HDFC Bank	7.3%
IDFC FIRST Bank	7.4%
QuantEco Research	7.4%
ICICI Securities Primary Dealership	7.6%
YES Bank	7.7%

 

End

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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