More Stories

Informist, Saturday, May 30, 2026

MUMBAI – Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean are showing positive anomalies, signalling the development and strengthening of the El Nino climate pattern in the second half of 2026, which is likely to stretch into early 2027. The five-year average predicted temperature in the same region relative to the whole tropics also indicates a preference for El Nino conditions in 2027 and 2028, particularly from December 2027 to February 2028, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

The five-year average temperature in the central tropical Pacific Ocean has a 64% calibrated probability of being above average, indicating a small signal for dominance of El Nino in 2027 and 2028, the meteorological body said in a report titled 'Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026-2035'. However, the organisation said the skill for forecasting two years ahead is low and suggested only medium confidence in the forecast.

Global mean temperatures are expected to continue at or near record levels in the five-year period starting 2026, according to the report. The annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2026 and 2030 is forecast to be between 1.3 and 1.9 degrees Celsius higher than the average over the years 1850-1900, according to the report.

At a 91% probability, it is very likely that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030. This level was also temporarily exceeded in 2024, when the global average surface temperature was about 1.55 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline. There is also an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will set a new annual record, which is currently held by 2024.

"There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year," Leon Hermanson, lead author of the study, was quoted as saying in the report.

The precipitation forecast for the next decade shows, compared to the projections, less rainfall over the Amazon and the eastern Indian Ocean, as per the report.

The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update looks at the observed climate over the past five years and gives regional predictions for temperatures and precipitation over the next five years. The update is produced by the UK's Met Office in its role as the World Meteorological Organization's Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction.

The update provides a synthesis of predictions contributed by 13 different institutes, including four global producing centres--Barcelona Supercomputer Centre, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Germany's Deutscher Wetterdienst, and the UK's Met Office. Confidence in forecasts of the annual averaged global mean near-surface temperature is high since hindcasts show very high skill.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Rajeev Pai

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.