Informist Poll
India Apr IIP growth seen lower at 3.7% as new series debuts
This story was originally published at 18:50 IST on 29 May 2026
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By Shubham Rana and Shweta
NEW DELHI – Growth in India's industrial output is likely to have moderated to a six-month low of 3.7% in April, with higher energy prices and supply disruptions caused by the war in West Asia expected to hit factory activity, according to an Informist Poll of 10 economists. Industrial output, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production, grew 4.1% in March and 2.6% in April 2025.
The April IIP print will be the first in a new series, with 2022-23 (Apr-Mar) as the base year, compared with FY12 in the old series. The new IIP series will have a broader scope and track more items, helping the government better monitor the health of the industrial sector.
According to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, the new IIP series will track production in minor minerals, rare earth minerals, gas supply, water supply, and sewerage and waste management. The new series will cover four broad sectors: mining and quarrying, manufacturing, electricity and gas supply, and water supply, sewerage, and waste management. The FY12 series only covered mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors.
The estimates for April IIP growth range from 2.7% to 5.0%. Most estimates in the poll are based on the old IIP series. The statistics ministry will release the IIP data for April Monday at 1600 IST.
IIP growth is seen moderating largely on account of a drag in mining, economists at Nirmal Bang Equities said in a note. "The manufacturing sector is expected to lead growth," they noted.
High-frequency data backed an uptick in manufacturing activity. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 54.7 in April from 53.9 in March. Motor vehicle production, as per the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, grew 26% year-on-year in April, faster than the 20% rise in March.
The output of India's eight core industries, which account for over 40% of the total weight of the old IIP, grew 1.7% in April, up from 1.2% rise in March. E-way bill generation, however, showed a slight moderation in growth. The number of e-way bills generated rose 11.8% on year in April, slower than the 12.9% growth in March.
The following is the summary of the poll on IIP growth in April:
| ORGANISATION | IIP GROWTH ESTIMATE |
| Nirmal Bang Equities | 2.7% |
| STCI Primary Dealer | 3.0% |
| ANZ Banking Group | 3.5% |
| Capital Economics | 3.5% |
| HDFC Bank | 3.5% |
| Moody's Analytics | 3.8% |
| Standard Chartered Bank | 4.8% |
| ICICI Bank | 4.9% |
| India Ratings and Research | 5.0% |
| ICICI Securities Primary Dealership | 5.0% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Saji George Titus
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