More Stories

Informist, Friday, May 29, 2026

By Divya Moolayattil

MUMBAI – The rupee posted its biggest single-day gain in nearly two months against the dollar Friday as the Reserve Bank of India intervened aggressively through dollar sales, dealers said. The RBI likely sold around $3 billion in the spot market Friday, dealers said. A drop in Brent crude oil price also supported the Indian unit, they said. 

"The movement in the rupee is purely due to intervention. Now, as monetary policy is nearing, the RBI wants the rupee to be stronger. If we see the Japanese yen and many countries, they are following the same trend," a dealer at a public-sector bank said.  The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee will give out the interest rate decision on Jun. 5. 

Friday, the rupee settled at a three-week high of 95.0000 per dollar after briefly rising above the 95-per-dollar mark, touching a high of 94.9550 per dollar. The rupee ended 0.7% higher than Wednesday's close. Asian currencies traded mixed on Friday, with the Indian rupee the best performer and the South Korean won the worst.  

The rupee opened on a strong footing against the dollar Friday as the RBI likely intervened in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened, dealers said.

The central bank marked its presence in the spot market and pushed it higher during the day, according to dealers. Market participants were caught off guard by the RBI's heavy intervention at the current levels, and rushed to trim their long dollar positions, further boosting the Indian unit. Stop losses on long dollar bets were triggered at multiple dollar-rupee levels, they said. Some dealers said the RBI may be aiming to push out speculative bets building up against the rupee, through its aggressive intervention. 

Further, Brent crude oil price fell over 6% from Thursday's high of $98.20 a barrel amid rising hopes of ceasefire extension between the US and Iran, supporting the Indian unit, dealers said. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil prices for July delivery were $91.90 per barrel, down from $93.71 Thursday and $94.29 Wednesday. 

Some dealers said the rupee also likely gained support from inflows related to MSCI rebalancing. "There were quite a lot of inflows today due to MSCI rebalancing. This, along with oil and the RBI's intervention at multiple levels, gave a huge push to the rupee," a dealer at a foreign bank said.

In the MSCI's rebalancing May cycle, shares of five major companies, Adani Energy Solutions, Federal Bank, Indian Bank, Multi Commodity Exchange, and National Aluminium Co, were added to its global standard index. On the other hand, shares of Hyundai Motor India, Jubilant Foodworks, Kalyan Jewellers India and Rail Vikas Nigam were excluded from the index. The rebalance will be effective from Friday.

However, gains for the Indian unit were limited as banks bought dollars for oil marketing companies and other importers, noting the sharp rise of the rupee, dealers said. "There wasn't much demand (for dollars) in early trade, but as the rupee started appreciating, the importers came in. They were also in wait-and-watch mode, expecting the dollar-rupee to fall even more," the dealer said. 

The dollar index rose as investors shifted to safe-haven assets amid uncertainty over the peace deal, with Trump yet to sign the ceasefire agreement, weighing on the rupee, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the dollar index rose to 99.08, compared to 98.99 Thursday. Further, domestic equities fell sharply, with the Nifty 50 and Sensex falling 1.5% and 1.4%, respectively, which also weighed on the Indian currency, dealers said. 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell slightly as banks sold forward delivery, expecting the rupee to rise further amid hopes of a peace deal between the US and Iran, dealers said. The one-year forward premium hit a low of 289.68 paise or 3.05% earlier in the day.

However, the fall in forward premium was limited as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, noting a sharp rise in the rupee in the spot market, they said. A fall in US treasury yield also supported premiums, dealers said. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.45% Thursday from 4.48% Wednesday. 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.10%, down from Wednesday's close of 3.11%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 294.48 paise, against 297.29 paise Wednesday.

OUTLOOK

Monday, the rupee will take cues from movement in crude oil prices and developments in the ceasefire deal between the US and Iran, which could pave the way for a permanent truce, dealers said. "I think all attention will be back to the peace deal and news during the weekend," a dealer at a foreign bank said.

Market participants expect the RBI to continue to sell dollars through public-sector banks, but not aggressively, dealers said. "The RBI may take a back foot now and let the market factor play out, considering the optimism in the market," the dealer said. "The market is also awaiting policies from the government, which could support the rupee."

Informist had reported earlier in May that the RBI and the finance ministry have received proposals from market participants to lower the withholding tax rate on government bonds to attract foreign investment and help protect its foreign exchange reserves. Some market participants are also expecting the RBI to announce measures to attract dollar inflow into the country through the Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Banks) and Non-Resident External deposit routes. 

Dealers expect banks to continue to buy dollars on behalf of importers and foreign portfolio investors, which will weigh on the rupee. Dealers now see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 94.80 per dollar, a break above which may push the Indian unit to 94.50. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.80-95.35 against the dollar Monday.

India Rupee -World FX: Dollar index up; market remains cautious on ceasefire

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose on Friday as investors closely tracked developments in West Asia, with the US signalling it is closing in on an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire by 60 days. However, the agreement is yet to be approved by US President Donald Trump. Details of the agreement emerged Thursday after the fragile ceasefire weakened as both sides traded strikes this week. At 1438 IST, the dollar index was 99.17 against 98.99 Thursday and 99.22 Wednesday. 

Crude oil prices fell to a six-week low of $92.33 a barrel Friday. At 1438 IST, Brent crude oil prices for July delivery were $93.55 a barrel, slightly down from $93.71 Thursday. A sharp fall in oil prices supported many global currencies. 

The euro was broadly steady against the dollar Friday as investors remained cautious, pending Trump's approval for the ceasefire extension. Investors await Germany's preliminary CPI data for May due later in the day. Germany is the biggest bloc in the Eurozone. The pound sterling edged down against the dollar for the third consecutive day Friday. 

The Japanese yen was steady despite Tokyo's CPI inflation falling to 1.3% in May from a year earlier, down from 1.5% in April, marking the sixth straight month of slowdown. Meanwhile, factory output rose 0.8% in April from the previous month, beating market expectations of 0.9% drop.

The Swedish krona, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar each rose 0.3%, and the Swiss franc was up 0.2% against the dollar on Friday. Market participants are closely watching Canada's GDP data, which will be released later in the day. (Divya Moolayattil)

India Rupee: 1-year premium off lows as importers buy fwd dlrs at low levels

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium came off earlier lows as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower levels and the appreciation of the rupee, dealers said. The one-year forward premium hit a low of 289.68 paise or 3.05% earlier in the day. 

The rupee surged 0.5% against the dollar in the spot market as the Reserve Bank of India intervened heavily through dollar sales, dealers said. A fall in US treasury yield also supported premiums, dealers said. The 10-year US treasury yield fell to 4.45% Thursday against 4.48% Wednesday.

The premium declined earlier as banks sold dollars for forward delivery as they expect the rupee to appreciate due to optimism over a peace deal between the US and Iran, dealers said. Investors are hopeful about a 60-day extension of the ceasefire between the US and Iran, giving the warring nations time to thrash out a permanent deal, which restores peace in West Asia. "The one-year forward premium fell on the possibility of a peace deal," a dealer at a foreign bank said.

At 1400 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 3.11%, flat from Wednesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 296.48 paise, against 297.29 paise at close Wednesday. (Suryash Kumar)

India Rupee: Remains sharply up as RBI likely intervenes heavily, crude down

MUMBAI – The rupee continued to rise against the dollar as public sector banks likely sold dollars aggressively on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The Indian unit was also supported by a fall in crude oil prices as the US and Iran close in on an agreement to extend the ceasefire by 60 days. 

"We are seeing some intervention but not sure of the levels," a dealer at a private sector bank said. The central bank also likely intervened in the the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened, according to dealers.

However, as expected, demand for dollars from importers, especially oil importers, limited gains for the Indian unit, dealers said. "Banks on behalf of importers continue to buy dollars on dips (in dollar-rupee)," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

Market participants are closely tracking evolving developments related to the war in West Asia. US Vice President J.D. Vance told reporters Thursday that the US and Iran were "very close" to an agreement, but the exact text of it and larger questions about Iran's nuclear programme were preventing progress in negotiations. "It's hard to say exactly when or if the president is going to sign" the agreement, Vance said. 

At 1227 IST, Brent crude oil for delivery in July traded at $92.60 per barrel, down over 1% from Thursday. It hit a low of $92.33 a barrel during the day. 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 95.30-95.80. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.30 a dollar. (Suryash Kumar)

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - May 29

MUMBAI – At 1101 IST, the rupee was at 95.4825 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.5500 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.6900. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

(Suryash Kumar and Divya Moolyattil)

India Rupee: Rises on RBI's likely dlr sales in spot, NDF, fall in crude oil

--Dealers: Some PSU banks' dollar sales, likely for RBI, support rupee 

--Dealers:PSU bks selling dlrs, likely for RBI, at multiple dlr-rupee levels

MUMBAI – The rupee rose against the dollar as the Reserve Bank of India likely intervened through dollar sales in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened, dealers said. The central bank was also likely intervening in the spot market, they said. 

"Rupee was around 95.90 in offshore in the morning but opening was around 95.55, looks like RBI came there," a dealer at a private sector bank said. Some dealers said the RBI was likely intermittently selling dollars in the spot market. 

A fall in Brent crude price on growing optimism around a ceasefire extension between the US and Iran, which may gradually lead to a permanent truce between them, also supported the Indian unit, dealers said. "The news that the US-Iran are closing in on a peace deal, a 60-day ceasefire extension is going to drive the rupee up against the dollar," a dealer at a foreign bank said.

However, US President Donald Trump still needs to approve the agreement that extends the ceasefire and "market participants are closely tracking the development related to it," the dealer added. At 1000 IST, Brent crude oil prices for delivery in July were at $92.66 per barrel, down over 1% from Thursday's closing and 5% lower than Thursday's high.

Dealers expect importers to step in through dollar purchases, fearing further depreciation of the rupee, which may exert pressure on the Indian unit. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 95.40-95.80. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.50 a dollar.  (Suryash Kumar and Pratiksha)

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - May 29

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee on Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

(Divya Moolyattil)

India Rupee - Asia FX: Most up as oil fall sharply; Malaysian ringgit gains

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar on Friday as investors' risk sentiment improved on reports that the US and Iran were closing in on an agreement to extend the ceasefire by 60 days. However, US President Donald Trump still needs to approve the memorandum of understanding which extends the ceasefire. US Vice President J.D. Vance told reporters Thursday that the two sides were "very close" to an agreement, but the exact text of it and larger questions about Iran's nuclear programme were preventing progress in negotiations. 

The South Korean won was 0.5% lower against the dollar even after Bank of Korea Thursday delivered a hawkish tone, keeping the policy rate unchanged at 2.50%. The latest policy meeting showed a divergence between the seven-member board of Bank of Korea, with the central bank signalling rate hikes ahead as high crude oil prices fuel inflation concerns.

The Malaysian ringgit rose 0.3% against the dollar as risk sentiment improved, with the US and Iran closing in on an extension of the ceasefire. The Philippine peso was up 0.1% against the dollar while the Thai Baht was marginally up against the greenback. Falling crude prices have strengthened Asian currencies, which are heavily dependent on crude oil imports for their energy needs. 

The Taiwanese dollar and Chinese yuan were marginally up against the dollar. The Indonesian rupiah was marginally down against the dollar.  (Suryash Kumar)

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Saji George Titus

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.