RBI Report
Central bank to review growth, inflation forecasting in FY27
This story was originally published at 14:36 IST on 29 May 2026
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--RBI: Monetary policy dept to review, improve GDP growth forecasting FY27
--RBI: Monetary policy dept to review, improve inflation forecasting FY27
--RBI: Monetary policy dept to review quarterly projection model FY27
NEW DELHI – The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Department will focus on strengthening macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis this financial year, the central bank said Friday. Accordingly, the RBI will review and improve GDP growth and inflation forecasting, the central bank said in its Annual Report for FY26.
In the past, particularly in FY25, the RBI has been criticised for its growth and inflation forecasts being far away from the actual prints. The RBI currently forecasts India's GDP growth in FY27 at 6.9% and CPI inflation at 4.6%.
The RBI will also look to estimate the natural real rate of interest, and potential GDP and its growth rate, it said. It will also review the quarterly projection model and the sectoral deployment of credit to include non-bank sources, the RBI said.
The central bank last estimated India's natural rate of interest – the real interest rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary for the economy – in July 2024. The natural real interest rate rose to 1.4-1.9% during Jan-Mar 2024 from 0.8-1.0% during Oct-Dec 2021, the RBI staff had estimated. End
Reported by Shubham Rana
Edited by Avishek Dutta
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