Earnings Outlook
Asian Paints Q4 PAT seen steady despite supply disruptions
This story was originally published at 17:55 IST on 27 May 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Wednesday, May 27, 2026
By Ruchira Kagita
MUMBAI - Asian Paints Ltd. is expected to report steady growth in net profit for the March quarter despite cost inflation stemming from supply disruptions caused by the war in West Asia. Volumes and gross margins of the country's largest paintmaker are expected to remain stable during the quarter.
Asian Paints' net profit for the March quarter is seen rising 20% on-year to INR 10.46 billion, according to the average of estimates from 13 brokerages. Estimates for net profit range from INR 11.61 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. to INR 9.76 billion by Kotak Securities Ltd.
Net sales are expected to rise by 5% on-year at INR 87.89 billion during the March quarter, according to the average of estimates. The highest estimate for net sales is INR 90.62 billion from Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd., while the lowest is INR 87.09 billion from Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd.
Nomura Equity Research expects Asian Paints' volume growth at 10% on year in the March quarter, higher than competitor Berger Paints' 8.5%. Other brokerages estimate Asian Paints' volumes to grow 9-10% on-year.
Sales of both Berger Paints and Asian Paints are pegged to be lower than the industry average during Jan-Mar, according to Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. On the volumes front, Asian Paints may post ' sales are seen to be better than those of Berger Paints.
On the volumes front, the company may see lower on-year growth than Berger Paints, according to Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. From a sector perspective, larger companies are expected to fare better than smaller peers amid rising cost pressures.
Asian Paints remains the largest paints company in the country, though its market share declined to 55.6% in the quarter ended March from 57.1% a year earlier, according to Elara Securities. The brokerage said the company's market share has "broadly stabilised".
While the adverse impact of higher energy prices is expected to remain limited in the March quarter, it will be important to assess the effect of rupee depreciation on the import-dependent company. The rupee depreciated about 5.2% against the dollar during the March quarter.
The company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation for the quarter are expected to be INR 15.93 billion, according to the average of estimates from 11 brokerages. The highest estimate for EBITDA is INR 17.00 billion by Equirus Securities, while the lowest is INR 15.19 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.
Asian Paints had guided for an 18-20?ITDA margin for 2025-26 (Apr-Mar). The company also forecast 4-5% revenue growth and 8-10% volume growth in FY26. For the upcoming quarter and FY27, the company will need to account for ongoing global supply-chain disruptions. Volume growth estimates may be revised lower for FY27, while the revenue outlook could improve as the impact of price hikes is factored in, ICICI Securities Ltd. said in a report. The brokerage added that the company's EBITDA margin could fall below 18% in FY27.
For FY26, the paintmaker's consolidated net revenue is expected to be INR 350.55 billion, up 3% on year, while net profit is seen rising 9% to INR 43.76 billion, slightly below the company's guidance. Commodity inflation and supply disruptions are likely to have weighed on earnings. Asian Paints' FY26 EBITDA margin is expected at the lower end of its guidance range.
Going forward, the company's price hikes are expected to have a positive impact. The effect of increases implemented by Asian Paints and its peers is likely to become visible in the first quarter of FY27, and paint companies may need another round of price hikes in the first half of the year to offset the impact of higher crude oil prices and derivative costs.
Asian Paints implemented 6-8% price hikes in April and announced another round of 3-5% price hikes in May. Margin pressure is expected to ease going forward, largely due to the benefits of price hikes. "... (Asian Paints) should be the biggest beneficiary of market consolidation in the near term," Nomura said in a report.
On Wednesday, Asian Paints' shares ended 0.9% higher at INR 2,671.90 on the National Stock Exchange. The company's shares have fallen over 1% since it announced its December-quarter results. Asian Paints will announce its March quarter results on Friday.
Of the 14 research reports on the company available with Informist, 10 have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock, with an average target price of INR 1,307. Two brokerages each have 'hold' and 'sell' recommendations.
The following are the estimates for the March quarter earnings of Asian Paints, in INR billion, from 13 brokerages in descending order of net profit:
|
Brokerage |
Net Sales |
Net Profit |
EBITDA |
|
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd |
87.51 |
11.61 |
16.17 |
|
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd |
87.54 |
11.00 |
15.74 |
|
Equirus Securities Pvt Ltd |
90.62 |
10.99 |
17.00 |
|
Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt Ltd |
87.93 |
10.69 |
|
|
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd |
87.31 |
10.60 |
16.07 |
|
HDFC Securities Ltd |
87.90 |
10.60 |
15.90 |
|
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd |
87.09 |
10.50 |
15.85 |
|
Nomura Equity Research |
88.12 |
10.26 |
15.86 |
|
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd |
88.20 |
10.20 |
16.00 |
|
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd |
88.00 |
10.10 |
15.98 |
|
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd |
87.35 |
9.86 |
|
|
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd |
87.50 |
9.86 |
15.19 |
|
Kotak Securities Ltd |
87.51 |
9.76 |
15.42 |
|
Average |
87.89 |
10.46 |
15.93 |
End
US$1 = INR 95.69
Edited by Saji George Titus
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