More Stories

Informist, Tuesday, May 26, 2026

 

--IMD Singh: Monsoon not hitting Kerala on Tuesday

--CONTEXT: IMD had forecast monsoon onset over Kerala on May 26

 

By Shreya Shetty

 

MUMBAI – The onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala will not occur on Tuesday, missing the forecast issued earlier by the India Meteorological Department, according to Bikram Singh, director of the weather department's regional meteorological centre, Mumbai.

 

In its forecast on May 15, the Indian weather department had said monsoon is likely to hit Kerala on May 26, with a model error of plus or minus four days. However, looking at the current weather condition, monsoon advancement will not occur on Tuesday, Singh said. "There is no weather activity in favour of onset on Tuesday," he said.

 

"The weather department will release a statement in the next one or two days, if the onset is delayed beyond the model error of plus four days," Singh said.

 

The southwest monsoon onset wave remains in the same position as on Saturday, according to the weather department's daily forecast on Monday. Conditions are favourable for further advancement of the monsoon into more parts of the southeast Arabian Sea, the Comorin Area, the Bay of Bengal, and the remaining parts of the Andaman Sea in the next two to three days, the department had said.

 

"I don't see monsoon onset on May 26. There might be rainfall today in Kerala but yesterday (Monday) it was really dry there," said Mahesh Palawat, vice-president of the Department of Meteorology and Climate Change at private weather forecasting agency Skymet. "The wind pattern is also not matching the criteria, the westerlies... most criteria are not matching for an onset, so I don't see it happening on May 26," he told Informist. The advancement of monsoon could be possible in the next four days, matching the Indian weather department's margin of error of plus four days, he added.

 

Most weather stations in Kerala have not recorded any rainfall in the past 24 hours, according to data from the weather department's regional meteorological centre in Thiruvananthapuram.

 

At present, the department uses criteria that was adopted in 2016 for declaring the onset of the monsoon over Kerala, which is based on the daily rainfall at 14 stations in Kerala and the neighbouring area, along with wind-field and outgoing long-wave radiation over the southeast Arabian Sea. If after May 10, around 60% of the 14 designated stations--Minicoy and Amini in Lakshadweep, Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Allapuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, and Kannur in Kerala, and Kudulu and Mangalore in Karnataka--report rainfall of 2.5 millimetres or more for two consecutive days, the onset over Kerala will be declared on the second day, provided the wind-field and outgoing long-wave radiation conditions are met.

 

The outgoing long-wave radiation measures the amount of terrestrial radiation released into space and, by extension, the amount of cloud cover and water vapour that intercepts that radiation in the atmosphere. The criteria emphasise the sharp increase in rainfall over Kerala along with the setting up of large-scale monsoon flow and extension of westerlies up to 600 hectopascal. 

 

The delay in monsoon onset is further reaffirmed by the late advancement of the wave over Sri Lanka. According to Sri Lanka's meteorological department, the southwest monsoon began gradually establishing over the country on Tuesday, which is three to four days after the normal onset date of May 22. After its onset over Sri Lanka, the monsoon wave typically takes around a week to reach Kerala.

 

In 2025, the southwest monsoon hit the Kerala coast on May 24, eight days ahead of its normal date of Jun. 1 and by May 29, the monsoon current covered southern and northeast India entirely, and parts of east and central India. However, after May 29, the monsoon was in a weak phase and resumed advancing only on Jun. 16. The monsoon covered entire India on Jun. 29, nine days before the normal date of Jul. 8. Normally, beginning Jun. 1, the southwest monsoon advances northwards and covers the entire country around Jul. 8.  End

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.