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Informist, Monday, May 25, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar to an over two-week high Monday as Brent crude oil price fell below $100-a-barrel after US President Donald Trump Sunday said the US and Iran had largely negotiated the terms of a peace deal that would result in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, dealers said. Trump said negotiations with Iran were "proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner". He, however, asked his representatives "not to rush into a deal in that time is on [our] side."

 

At 1530 IST, the price of Brent crude oil for July delivery fell to $97.79 a barrel from $103.54 a barrel Friday. The Brent crude price has risen over 50% since the war began on Feb. 28. "The rupee recovery is also being aided by softer crude prices and improving sentiment in global markets, though movement ahead will continue to depend heavily on final developments in US–Iran negotiations and energy market stability," Jateen Trivedi, vice-president and research analyst, commodity and currency, LKP Securities, said in a note.

 

The Indian currency gained for the third consecutive day and settled at 95.2300 a dollar Monday, up 0.5% from Friday's close. The rupee rose to a high of 95.1075 a dollar during the day. Other Asian currencies gained 0.2-0.6% against the dollar, with the South Korean won being the best performer.

 

The dollar index weakened as risk appetite among investors improved on hopes that a peace deal ‌may be reached to end the war in West Asia, further supporting the rupee, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the dollar index fell to 98.99, compared to 99.22 Friday. Further, domestic equities rose sharply, with the Nifty 50 and Sensex gaining 1.3% and 1.4%, respectively, which also supported the Indian currency, dealers said.

 

However, some market participants remained cautious as Trump later Sunday said he would not rush into an agreement with Iran. Officials also said nothing is ready to be signed yet as the two sides negotiate on key issues and it may take several days to get final approvals from the respective leaderships. "The market is cautiously optimistic and till the deal is finalised, there would be demand for dollars, which will weigh on rupee," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

Gains for the Indian unit were limited by dollar purchases by banks on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, noting the sharp rise of the rupee, dealers said. "There were importers in market, but not many as US players were absent because of US holiday and even other players were absent because of Moharram. There was less liquidity in the market," the dealer said. 

 

Dealers said the Reserve Bank of India's $5 billion, three-year dollar-rupee buy-sell swap auction Tuesday will have no impact on the rupee. "Discounting for rupee is already done, so we won't see much movement due to auction," a dealer from a private-sector bank said. 

 

Some dealers speculated the RBI may have intervened intermittently through dollar sales in the spot market during the day, which also supported the Indian unit. Dealers said the central bank's intervention may be aimed at stopping speculation in the market. The RBI had intervened aggressively in the spot market last week as the rupee inched closer to the key 97-a-dollar level.

 

Governor Sanjay Malhotra said in an interview with financial newspaper Mint, reported Monday, that the RBI will do "whatever is required" to ensure orderly movement in the rupee and curb undue speculation. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2300	95.3400	95.1075	95.4450	95.6900
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	319.00	310.05	320.40	310.05	319.50

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium erased a fall and ended steady Monday as banks bought forward dollars on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said.

 

Premiums fell as banks sold forward dollars ahead of the RBI's $5 billion buy-sell swap auction, which will take place 1030-1130 IST Tuesday, dealers said. Under the buy-sell swap, the RBI will buy dollars for immediate delivery and sell them for delivery after three years. Market participants expect the swap auction to see strong participation from banks and companies.

 

Some banks also sold dollars for forward delivery, fearing further appreciation of the Indian currency, dealers said. The one-year forward premium fell to a low of 310.05 paise Monday. The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.35% at 1530 IST against 3.34% Friday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 319.00 paise, against 319.50 paise Friday. 

 

OUTLOOK

Tuesday, the rupee will continue to take cues from movement in crude oil prices and developments in the peace negotiations between the US and Iran, dealers said. "The announcement of progress on the US-Iran peace agreement will support the INR further, and updates on the same will be the major driver this week," ICICI Bank said in report.

 

Market participants expect importers to continue buying dollars amid uncertainty over the situation in West Asia, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Most dealers expect the RBI to intervene by selling dollars if the Indian unit comes under extreme pressure, but not very agressively.

 

"It is a very short week and the market is likely to move in a same range of 94.80-95.50 (a dollar) throughout the week as the deals are going to be less," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. The currency market is closed Thursday for Bakri Id.

 

Dealers now see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 95.00 per dollar, a break above which may push the Indian unit to 94.80. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.80-95.50 against the dollar Tuesday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index down on hopes of West Asia peace deal

 

	AT 1453 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3492	1.3496	1.3448	1.3443
EUR/USD	1.1642	1.1649	1.1630	1.1607
NZD/USD	0.5871	0.5881	0.5863	0.5848
AUD/USD	0.7166	0.7173	0.7142	0.7136
USD/JPY	158.9340	159.2400	158.7620	159.2020
USD/CAD	1.3816	1.3820	1.3797	1.3824
EUR/JPY	185.0410	185.0820	184.7700	184.7725
CHF/USD	1.2795	1.2798	1.2748	1.2733
EUR/CHF	0.9098	0.9129	0.9098	0.9114

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index was marginally down Monday as investors grew increasingly optimistic about a peace deal between the US and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which led to increased risk appetite and lower safe-haven demand for the dollar. At 1442 IST, the dollar index was at 99.00 against 99.23 Friday and 99.27 Thursday. However, investors are closely tracking the Federal Reserve's inflation outlook, increasingly ruling out a rate cut this year.

 

US President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were "proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner." He, however, asked his representatives "not to rush into a deal" with Iran. However, the exact mechanism through which the Strait of Hormuz will operate, allowing ships and Iran's nuclear stockpile, remains a sticking point between the US and Iran.

 

The pound sterling was up 0.4% against the dollar, while the euro was up 0.3%. The Japanese yen was up 0.2% up against the dollar, but high crude prices continue to limit gains in the yen. The Swiss franc was up 0.5% against the dollar, while the Swedish Krona was up 0.7% against the dollar. The Canadian dollar was marginally down against the greenback.  (Suryash Kumar)

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India Rupee: Off lows as importers buy fwd dlrs; RBI's FX swap auction eyed

 

	AT 1340 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.3225	95.3400	95.10750	95.4450	95.6900
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	318.50	310.05	320.40	310.05	319.50

 

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium came off the earlier lows as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. "There is paying happening at lower levels, probably on behalf of some clients," said a dealer at a foreign bank.

 

The Indian unit rose sharply against the dollar Monday to a two-week high of 95.1075 as Brent crude oil price fell below the $100 per-barrel mark on news that the US and Iran were closing in on a peace deal.

 

Premiums fell as banks sold forward dollars ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's $5 billion buy-sell swap auction, which will take place 1030-1130 IST Tuesday, dealers said. Under the buy-sell swap, the RBI will buy dollars for immediate delivery and sell them for delivery after three years. Market participants expect the swap auction to see strong participation from banks and companies.

 

After hitting a low of 3.25?rlier in the day, at 1340 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was at 3.32%, only slightly down from the previous close of 3.34%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 318.50 paise, against Friday's close of 319.50 paise.  (Suryash Kumar)

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India Rupee: Remains sharply up as Brent below $100/bbl, dollar index weak

 

	AT 1219 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2600	95.3400	95.1075	95.4450	95.6900

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained sharply higher against the dollar as Brent crude oil continued to trade below the $100-per-barrel mark, with the US and Iran closing in on a peace deal, dealers said. Weakness in the dollar index also supported, they said.

 

"Market forces are making the rupee stronger today (Monday), and it will continue to move between 95.10-95.45," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. At 1219 IST, the rupee was 95.2600 a dollar, up 43 paise from Friday's closing level.

 

US President Donald Trump Saturday said the US and Iran had largely negotiated terms of a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He said negotiations with Iran were "proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner." Trump, however, asked his representatives "not to rush into a deal in that time is on [our] side." 

 

At 1219 IST, Brent crude oil prices for delivery in July were $98.39 per barrel, down nearly 5% from Friday. It fell to an over two-week low of $97.10 a barrel during the day. A dealer at a foreign bank said the rupee might rise above the 95 a dollar mark if Brent crude oil price falls below $92 per barrel.

 

However, buying of dollars by private-sector banks on behalf of importers, limited gains for the Indian currency, dealers said. Importers bought dollars, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, they said. The Indian unit fell to a record low of 96.9600 last week.

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 95.10-95.60. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.10 a dollar.  (Suryash Kumar)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - May 25

 

MUMBAI – At 1050 IST, the rupee was at 95.1775 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.3400 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.6900. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages.

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.80	95.50	95.25	95.11
Private-sector bank	95.65	95.50	95.25	95.18
Private-sector bank	-	97.00	95.10	94.90
Foreign bank	-	95.60	95.05	-
Brokerage firm	96.70	96.10	95.40	95.00

 

(Suryash Kumar)

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Indian Rupee: Sharply up as crude oil below $100/bbl on hope of US-Iran deal

 

	AT 0927 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4125	95.3400	95.2775	95.4150	95.6900

 

MUMBAI – The rupee opened sharply higher against the dollar as Brent crude oil price fell below the key $100 per barrel mark to hit an over two-week low due to hope of a peace deal between the US and Iran, dealers said.

 

US President Donald Trump Saturday said the US and Iran had largely negotiated terms of a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. "Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly," he said in a post on Truth Social. At 0940 IST, Brent crude oil prices for delivery in July traded at $97.55 per barrel, down from $103.54 per barrel on Friday.

 

A sharp rise in domestic equities also aided the Indian unit, they said. At 0940 IST, the Nifty 50 and Sensex were up 1?ch. The foreign exchange market also reacted positively to Reserve Bank of India's Governor Sanjay Malhotra's comments in an interview to Mint, in which he said the central bank would do whatever it takes to curb undue speculation, a dealer at a public sector bank said.

 

However, dealers expect importers to step in to buy dollars, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, which may limit gains for the Indian currency. "In the later part of the day, there might be some buying of dollars by importers, which might push the rupee down against the dollar," a dealer at a public sector bank said. "If the rupee comes close to 95.50 a dollar mark, RBI might sell dollars."

 

Market participants also expect the volume in the currency market to be lower than usual as US markets are closed on Monday for Memorial Day. "Today is a dollar holiday, so market will slide downside to 95.50 levels ..since less liquidity from US players," said a dealer at a foreign bank. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 95.20-95.70. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.50 a dollar.  (Suryash Kumar)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - May 25

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT
Private-sector bank	95.00	96.00
Private-sector bank	95.10	96.50
Foreign bank	95.10	96.00
Foreign bank	95.10	95.90
Brokerage firm	95.45	95.55
Brokerage firm	95.05	95.80
Brokerage firm	95.25	96.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most rise against dollar on improved risk appetite

 

Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar as investors' risk appetite improved, with US President Donald Trump saying that negotiations with Iran were "proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner." He also asked his representatives "not to rush into a deal in that time is on [our] side." However, investors will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's stance as they increasingly rule out a rate cut by the Fed this year. 

 

Brent crude prices for delivery in July were below $100 barrel mark as hopes of the Strait of Hormuz reopening soon grew. At 0744 IST, Brent crude oil for delivery in July was at $99.41 per barrel, down over 4% from the previous day's close. The South Korean won was nearly 1% higher against the dollar. 

 

The Malaysian ringgit rose against the dollar as investor optimism about a peace deal between the US and Iran improved, with the US president signalling that the peace talks were progressing well and in an orderly manner. The ringgit was up 0.4% against the dollar. The Philippine peso was up 0.3% against the dollar, and the Thai Baht was nearly 1% higher against the greenback.

 

The Chinese yuan was up 0.2% against the dollar. However, Asian currencies may reverse their upward march against the dollar if crude prices start rising again. Most Asian economies are highly dependent on crude imports to meet their energy needs, which translates into increasing demand for dollars if crude prices rise. 

 

Bucking the trend, the Indonesian rupiah was marginally down against the dollar.  (Suryash Kumar) End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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