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Informist, Friday, May 22, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended at a 10-day high Friday following aggressive dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. This was the second time this week that the RBI stepped up dollar sales after the Indian unit fell to a record low of 96.96 a dollar on Wednesday. Forward market rates implied the rupee weakening beyond the psychologically crucial 100-per-dollar mark. Dealers estimated that the RBI sold around $2 billion on Friday. 

 

"The RBI was in the market since morning. First it came at 96.25 (a dollar) level, then at 95.85 and finally, after 3 PM (0300 IST), it came at 95.70 level and moved the rupee by 10-12 paise," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "The RBI is intervening aggressively because it wants the rupee to go down (appreciate) before the buy-sell swap auction on Tuesday."  

 

The Indian unit settled at 95.69 a dollar Friday, close to the day's high of 95.68. The rupee rose 51 paise from its previous close of 96.20 per dollar. The Indian unit rose above the 96-per-dollar level Friday, shortly after it fell close to 97 per dollar Wednesday. Asian currencies traded on a mixed note against the dollar, with the South Korean won the worst performer and the Indian rupee the best. 

 

Crude oil prices fell sharply on Thursday after Iran said it is reviewing the proposal sent by the US to end the war. However, investors remained sceptical about the outcome of the peace deal between the two countries. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil prices for July delivery rose to $105.3 a barrel from $102.58 Thursday. Crude oil prices fell nearly 6% this week amid rising hopes of a peace deal. "Volatility will prevail in the market till oil prices subside and there is an end to the war," the dealer said.

 

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday said there has been "slight progress" in talks with Iran to end the war. Meanwhile, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said 35 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz with Iran's permission in the last 24 hours.

 

Domestic equities gained slightly, with the Nifty 50 and Sensex ending 0.3% higher each, supporting the Indian currency, dealers said.  

 

However, gains for the Indian unit were limited as some banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of importers seeking to make the most of the rupee's appreciation, dealers said. "Importers have to make onshore payments for month-end, so they were bidding. But they were not very aggressive as the market is expecting the rupee to rise further after the buy-sell swap auction," said a dealer at a private-sector bank.

 

The dollar index rose slightly as investors were cautious and shifted toward the currency for its safe-haven appeal, which also weighed on the rupee. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 99.34, higher than 99.19 Thursday and 99.07 Wednesday. "The dollar demand is still there in the market. The rupee is like spring now. The more it goes up, the dollar demand will push it down," a dealer at a public-sector bank said.  

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6900	96.2600	95.6800	96.3025	96.2000
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	319.50	330.00	338.5	317.27	332.80

 

FORWARDS 

The one-year dollar rupee forward premiums fell to a one-week low as dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions. However, banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers amid a sharp rise in the rupee in the spot market, limiting the fall in forward premiums. Dealers said banks were selling in the forward premium market, ahead of the RBI's $5 billion buy-sell swap auction Tuesday, which put further pressure on forward premiums. 

 

A fall in US Treasury yields contained the fall in forwards. At 1530 IST, US Treasury yields were at 4.56%, compared with 4.57% Thursday and 4.59% Wednesday.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.34%, down from 3.45% Thursday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 319.50 paise, down from 332.80 paise Thursday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Monday, the rupee will track movement in crude oil prices and the developments in talks between the US and Iran. Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Persistent foreign portfolio outflows may also add pressure on the Indian unit. MUFG Bank said in a note that it expects the Indian currency to trade between 95–96 per dollar, given the de-escalation in tensions in West Asia. 

 

However, most market participants expect the RBI to continue intervening by selling dollars once the rupee comes under extreme pressure. Dealers also expect the RBI to roll out more relief measures in 2–3 weeks if the rupee is under extreme pressure. "... we expect the RBI and the Indian government to take further measures to try to support the Indian rupee, by shoring up capital inflows, managing capital outflows, while controlling import needs such as through fuel conservation measures," MUFG Bank said.  

 

Dealers see technical resistance for the Indian currency at 95.45 a dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.30-96.00 against the dollar Monday.  

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index up as investors track W Asia situation

 

	AT 1435 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3426	1.3439	1.3413	1.3432
EUR/USD	1.1606	1.1620	1.1602	1.1618
NZD/USD	0.5857	0.5879	0.5859	0.5873
AUD/USD	0.7130	0.7153	0.7128	0.7147
USD/JPY	159.0920	159.1420	158.9600	158.9500
USD/CAD	1.3786	1.3795	1.3775	1.3770
EUR/JPY	184.6430	184.8205	184.5900	184.7049
CHF/USD	1.2720	1.2729	1.2696	1.2684
EUR/CHF	0.9122	0.9141	0.9122	0.9133

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose on Friday as investors closely tracked the developments in West Asia, with the US signalling that there's some progress in the peace talks. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there were "some good signs" that peace talks with Iran were progressing. However, he added that US President Donald Trump had "other options" if a peace deal was not reached. Investors are showing restraint in optimism around the US statement suggesting progress in negotiation as US President Donald Trump has swung between threats and progress in no time. 

 

The dollar index was 99.27 against 99.19 Thursday and 99.07 Wednesday.

 

The pound sterling was marginally up against the dollar despite weak UK retail sales data, indicating the chilling effect of the US-Iran war on the economy. Retail sales volumes slid 1.3% in April from March, the biggest monthly decline since May 2025 and sharper than the 0.6?cline expected by economists. Fuel sales fell sharply with volumes plunging by more than 10%.

 

The euro was marginally up even as S&P Global flash Purchasing Manager's Index data released on Thursday indicated that the Euro Area economy fell in May at its fastest pace since late 2023. The fall was largely due to high living costs driven by rising fuel prices amid the West Asia war that impacted demand for service and pushed input-price inflation up. S&P Global's ‌Flash Euro Zone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 47.5 in May from 48.8 in April.

 

The Japanese yen was 0.1% up against the dollar as intervention expectations by the Bank of Japan supported the currency, but high crude oil prices continued to weigh on the currency. The Swiss franc was up 0.2% against the dollar and the Swedish Krona was also up 0.2% against the dollar. (Suryash Kumar)

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India Rupee:1-yr premium dn as RBI sells fwd dlrs; importer demand caps fall

 

 

	AT 1400 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.8850	96.2600	95.7950	96.3025	96.2000
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	321.50	330.00	338.50	317.27	332.80

 

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell to a one-week low as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise the impact of its recent spot interventions, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars in maturity across tenures, some dealers said. The spot rupee breached 96.00 a dollar and rose to a high of 95.79 a dollar during the day amid central bank's intervention.

 

Dealers said banks are selling at the highs in the forward premium market, ahead of the RBI's $5 billion buy-sell swap auction Tuesday. "The whole rally is all about covering for ($)5 billion swap until Tuesday...Market will be selling highs..after that we have to see how war related news flows," a dealer at private-sector bank said. 

 

 

Considering that spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. 

However, the fall in one-year dollar-rupee forward premium was limited as banks bought forward dollars for importers, noting the relatively higher levels in the Indian unit, dealers said. So far this month, the one-year forward premium has risen almost 24 basis points as of Thursday. 

 

At 1400 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 3.35%, down from the previous close of 3.45%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 321.50 paise, against Thursday's close of 332.80 paise. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Rises above 96/$ as RBI sells dlrs; importers' demand weighs

 

	AT 1245 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.8625	96.2600	95.8350	96.3025	96.2000

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar Friday and breached the 96.00-a-dollar level as the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars aggressively through state-owned banks, dealers said. "The RBI is very much in the market, they are selling heavily at various levels, from 96.30 (a dollar), 96.08," a dealer at a public sector bank said. The rupee rose to a high of 95.8350 a dollar Friday. The RBI sold dollars heavily after the rupee neared the key psychological mark of 97 per dollar on Wednesday.  

 

Crude oil prices were muted around $105 a barrel as investors remained sceptical due to lack of significant progress regarding peace talks between the US and Iran. Tehran Thursday said it was reviewing a proposal from the US to end the war. Pakistan, which has been the mediator between both countries, is engaged in "intense mediation activity", while a senior Iranian official said a deal was close, media reports said. US President Donald Trump said he would wait for a couple of days, after which the US military would strike Iran if it failed to give "an acceptable deal".

 

However, gains in the Indian unit were limited as banks bought dollars actively on behalf of importers, who wanted to make the most of the rupee's appreciation, they said. "RBI is helping, but there is heavy demand at around 95.85 (a dollar)," a dealer at private sector bank said. "Currently, the low is 95.80 (a dollar). If this level breaks, 95.55 is possible."   

 

A rise in domestic equity indices also supported the rupee, they said. At 1230 IST, the Sensex and Nifty 50 were 0.5% higher than the previous close. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 95.80-96.30. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.80 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - May 22

 

MUMBAI – At 1120 IST, the rupee was at 95.8325 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 96.2600 a dollar, against the previous close of 96.2000. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages.

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	96.70	96.50	95.85	95.60
Private-sector bank	96.50	96.40	95.95	95.80
Private-sector bank	96.50	96.35	95.80	95.65
Foreign bank	96.60	96.40	95.80	95.55
Brokerage firm	96.88	96.60	95.90	95.60
Brokerage firm	96.50	96.40	95.70	95.50

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Steady as oil stays below $105/bbl, hopes pinned on peace deal

 

	AT 0920 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.2500	96.2600	96.1725	96.3025	96.2000

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was steady against the dollar Friday as crude oil prices stayed below $105 a barrel after Iran said it was reviewing the US' proposal to end the war, media reports said. "Although there are no clear indications, news that the peace deal is in the final stages kept the market sentiment mostly positive overall," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

US President Donald Trump Wednesday said negotiations with Iran were in the final stages. He also said the US military was ready to bomb Iran if it failed to submit 'an acceptable deal' soon. At 0800 IST, Brent crude oil prices for July delivery were at $104.02 a barrel, up from $102.58 Thursday. Crude rose slightly Friday after Iran's Supreme Leader issued a directive that its near-weapons-grade uranium must remain inside the country and not be transferred abroad. Brent crude oil prices hit a low of $102.17 a barrel Thursday. 

 

However, banks are likely to buy dollars actively for importers, which may put pressure on the rupee. "Importers will come in as it is Friday and month-end too. But they may wait for developments on the West Asia war before rushing in," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

Dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to intervene if the rupee falls under extreme pressure. "The RBI's move is going to decide the downside level of the rupee today. If they come in, the rupee could break 96.00. However, they are likely to protect 96.40 level, just like it did yesterday (Thursday)" the dealer said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 96.00-96.40. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.35 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - May 22

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT
Public-sector bank	96.00	96.50
Private-sector bank	96.10	96.70
Private-sector bank	96.05	96.50
Foreign bank	95.80	96.40
Brokerage firm	95.95	96.50
Brokerage firm	95.90	96.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Indonesian rupiah down even as central bk hikes rate

 

MUMBAI – The Indonesian rupiah was down against the dollar even after Bank Indonesia hiked interest rates by 50 basis points to 5.25% aimed at supporting the currency. Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo said the rupiah is still expected to face pressure through June amid high crude oil prices and strong domestic foreign exchange demand. The rupiah was down 0.1% against the dollar. 

 

A rising dollar index also weighed on Asian currencies, with the US dollar boosted by strong economic data, high US treasury yields and relatively higher crude oil prices. The dollar index was at 99.26 against 99.19 Thursday and 99.07 Wednesday. The S&P Global flash manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index for May indicated strong business activity in the US economy as it rose to 55.3, the highest level since May 2022. A value of above 50 means growth in manufacturing.

 

The South Korean won was marginally down against the dollar as foreign investors sold local equities and high treasury yields also pulled down the currency. The Malaysian ringgit was broadly steady against the dollar as easing geopolitical tensions and strong macroeconomic fundamentals of the Malaysian economy hold the currency on a strong footing.

 

The Philippine peso was 0.1% higher against the dollar as likely intervention by Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas strengthened the currency. Further, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Eli Remolona said that peso at 63.50 against the dollar might be fine as long as the depreciation is measured and not inflationary, Bloomberg reported, citing local news media.

 

The Thai Baht was 0.2% down against the dollar, while the Hong Kong Dollar was marginally down against the greenback. Bucking the trend were the Taiwanese Dollar and Chinese Yuan, both up 0.1% and 0.03% respectively, against the dollar. (Suryash Kumar)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.69

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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