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Informist, Thursday, May 21, 2026

By Astha Oriel 

NEW DELHI – Hindalco Industries Ltd. is likely to report a moderate decline in its consolidated bottom line year-on-year for the March quarter despite a rise in its top line, according to brokerages tracking the company. The company's bottom line is expected to be weighed down by cost pressures and the impact from the fire incident in Oswego plant of Novelis Inc., analysts said. The company's consolidated volumes are expected to rise driving the overall revenues.

The company's net profit is expected to decline nearly 10% on year and rise nearly 1% sequentially for the reporting quarter, according to the average of estimates from 11 brokerages. Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. has the highest top line estimate of INR 56.12 billion, whereas the lowest estimate is INR 31.61 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. This is likely to be the second consecutive quarter of a year-on-year decline in the mining major's bottom line. However, the decline in net profit would be slower than the December quarter.

"Though Hindalco may likely exhibit a recovery over Q3, we remain cautious given the energy cost implications in Novelis due to the ongoing war," ICICI Securities said in its earnings preview note.

The company's net sales are expected to rise over 9% on year and nearly 7% sequentially to INR 709.27 billion, according to the average of brokerages' estimates. Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. has the highest estimate of net sales at INR 807.40 billion, whereas the lowest estimate is INR 337.64 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd. The mining major is likely to report the slowest year-on-year increase in net sales in five quarters, as per analysts consensus.

The company's standalone aluminium volumes are expected to be 339,000–446,300 tonnes for the March quarter, according to estimates by five brokerages. In the year-ago quarter, the aluminium upstream volume was 332,000 tonne, whereas aluminium downstream volume was 105,000 tonne. The company's copper volumes are estimated to be 120,000–135,000 tonnes, compared with 135,000 tonne in the year-ago quarter, according to four brokerages.

The company's consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected to rise nearly 54% on year and nearly 6% sequentially to INR 85.64 billion, according to average of estimates by 10 brokerages. Systematix Shares and Stocks India Ltd. has the highest estimate of EBITDA at INR 97 billion, whereas the lowest estimate is INR 47.35 billion by JM Financial.

Nuvama Wealth Management expects the India business EBITDA to increase 9% led by higher aluminium price. The company will report its March quarter earnings on Friday. For the financial year 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), the company's net profit is expected to be INR 164.96 billion, down by more than 2% on year, according to the average of estimates by three brokerages. The company's net sales are expected to be INR 2.74 trillion, up nearly 15% on year, as per the brokerages' estimates. The company's EBITDA is expected to decline more than 1% on year in FY26 to INR 350.42 billion.

Thursday, shares of the company traded over 1% higher at INR 1,099.30 on the National Stock Exchange. Shares of the company have surged nearly 21% since the company reported December quarter results on Feb. 12.

Of the 11 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, four brokerages have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 1,037 per share. This is nearly 16 lower than the current share price. Five brokerages have a 'hold' rating on the stock with an average target price of INR 920. One brokerage has a 'sell' rating on the stock with an average target price of INR 751 per share.

Following are the December quarter earnings estimates for Hindalco Ltd. from 10 brokerages in the descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

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Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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