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Informist, Thursday, May 21, 2026

 

By Arundathi A R

 

MUMBAI – Analysts see the benchmark equity indices stuck in a range in the near term amid lack of fresh triggers. They also expect the negative bias in the market to continue, after it closed marginally lower Thursday. Crude oil price, rupee level, and March quarter corporate results will continue to be major factors determining the market's direction.

 

"The overall sentiment continues to remain weak, with the possibility of further downside in the short term," Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities, said in a note. "On the lower end, 23400 (points) is likely to act as a crucial support level; a decisive breach below this mark may trigger panic selling in the market. Conversely, the index needs to move decisively above 23800 (points) to witness a directional rally and improve the near-term sentiment." Thursday, the Nifty 50 closed at 23654.70, down 4.30 points. The BSE Sensex settled 0.2% lower at 75183.36, down 135.03 points.

 

"The worst is already priced in the market, and it is expected to start recovering during the coming weeks," Rohit Srivastava, market strategist and founder of Indiacharts, said. He expects the Nifty 50 to head up to 25800 points in the next move up in June. "We don't see it going below 23300 level," he said.

 

The Nifty 50 is expected to give double-digit returns in one year, investment advisory firm smallcase said in a webinar Thursday. The equity market is fairly valued, with select spaces to do well in the financial year 2026–27 (Apr-Mar), it said. The firm expects the power and banking sectors to outperform others in FY27.

 

Srivastava expects foreign investors to enter the Indian equity market only with a significant change in the tax regime. The continuing US-Iran conflict and resultant changes in crude oil price will make barely any impact on them, he said. Wednesday, foreign investors net sold shares worth INR 15.97 billion, while shares worth INR 19.68 billion were bought by domestic investors.

 

India is likely to remain the fastest growing major economy for the next 25 years, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said Thursday. The free trade agreements New Delhi has signed will attract a lot of investments in infrastructure, which will help faster growth in infrastructure, Goyal said. The Indian economy is estimated to have grown 7.6% in FY26 and its GDP growth projection for FY27 being raised to 6.5% from 6.4% by the International Monetary Fund amid the West Asia war is reflective of the country's growing ability to engage with the world, the minister said.

 

"USDINR (dollar-rupee) is close to its peak near 97, and we do not see it going any higher," Srivastava of Indiacharts said. The rupee bucked a nine-day fall and rose against the dollar after the fall in crude oil price. The currency settled at 96.2000 after hitting a high of 96.0425 a dollar in early trade. At 1654 IST, the July futures contract of Brent crude was up over 2% at $107.20 a barrel.

 

Hindalco Industries, Eicher Motors, and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries will be in focus as they will announce their March quarter earnings Friday. The consolidated on-year revenue growth of Eicher Motors for the March quarter is expected to be at a six-quarter low, as dispatches of its Royal Enfield motorcycles underperformed the industry due to production constraints. The company's consolidated net profit for the quarter is expected at INR 14.39 billion, up 5.6% on year.

 

Sun Pharmaceutical is expected to report a year-on-year rise in net profit and revenue, led by its India formulations business and specialty products. The company is expected to report a rise of nearly 11% on year in consolidated net profit for the March quarter to nearly INR 27.86 billion. Its revenue is seen at INR 145.94 billion, up nearly 13% on year.  End

 

US$1 = INR 96.20

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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