More Stories

Informist, Thursday, May 21, 2026

By Divya Moolayattil

MUMBAI – The rupee broke its nine-day losing streak and gained sharply against the dollar Thursday as crude oil prices fell below $105 a barrel. Crude oil prices fell nearly 7% Thursday after Iran said it is reviewing the US proposal to end the war. Pakistan army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir will visit Tehran on Thursday as Iran examines the peace proposal. "The sentiment in the market is leaning on a positive side for now, but until the war ends, there will be no big appreciation in the rupee," a dealer at a public sector bank said.  

US President Donald Trump Wednesday said the US is ready to wait for a few days to get the "right answer" from Iran on the peace deal. He also said Washington will bomb Tehran if it fails to submit 'an acceptable' deal. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil prices for July delivery fell to $104.28 a barrel from $105.02 Wednesday and $111.28 Tuesday. "India is one of the biggest importers of crude. As crude price rises, our current account deficit and balance of payment also go up. That is why the rupee has been the worst performer among Asian peers," the dealer said.

After hitting a high of 96.0425 a dollar in early trade, the rupee settled at 96.2000 Thursday, 62 paise higher from the previous close. Asian currencies traded on a mixed note, with Indian unit being the best performer on Thursday.

Dealers said the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars actively through state-owned banks, which gave the Indian unit a boost. "The RBI entered the market before it opened first and then came in again at 96.11 levels, which took the rupee near to 96 (a dollar)," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

However, the Indian unit erased a considerable portion of its gains as banks persistently purchased dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to make most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, they said. "Importers rushed in and were buying at every dip for their onshore payments as month-end and quarter-end is nearing," a dealer at a foreign bank said. The Indian unit hit a low of 96.5025 a dollar during the day. 

A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the rupee. At 1530 IST, the Sensex and Nifty 50 closed 0.2% down and marginally lower, respectively. Foreign portfolio investors net sold Indian assets worth $1.52 billion so far in May.  

On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of India announced a $5 billion dollar-rupee buy-sell swap with a three-year tenor to infuse liquidity in the banking system. "The RBI is giving an administrative boost, but if the war doesn't end in May, crude could rise to $130 a barrel and the situation could be worse, as many countries will tap their reserves," a dealer at public-sector bank said.

FORWARDS 

The one-year dollar rupee forward premiums fell slightly as dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions. However, banks bought dollars persistently on behalf of importers amid a sharp rise in the rupee in the spot market, which limited the fall in forward premiums. 

A fall in US Treasury yields contained the fall in forwards. At 1530 IST, US Treasury yields were at 4.58%, against 4.59% Wednesday and 4.66% Tuesday.

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.46%, down from 3.51% Wednesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 332.80 paise, down from 342.00 paise Wednesday.

OUTLOOK

On Friday, the rupee will track movement in crude oil prices and the developments in peace talks between the US and Iran. "Trump indicator will be key on the war front now. We can expect something good only if the war ends. Till then there will be no big appreciation in the rupee," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Persistent foreign portfolio outflows may also add pressure on the Indian unit. However, most market participants expect the RBI to continue intervening by selling dollars once the rupee falls under extreme pressure. 

Dealers see technical support for the Indian currency at 96.40 a dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 96.30-96.75 against the dollar Friday.  End 

India Rupee - World FX: Swiss franc up on optimism around W Asia peace deal

MUMBAI – The Swiss franc rose against the dollar despite a fall in industrial production in Switzerland in Jan-Mar. Data from the Swiss Federal Statistics office showed factory output fell 7.1% in the first quarter of the year, with pharmaceutical sector production leading the decline, falling 20%, while transport equipment manufacturing production fell 15%. The franc was 0.4% higher against the dollar as risk appetite of investors improved following US President Donald Trump's comment that Washington was in the "final stages" of negotiations with Iran.

The dollar index was at 99.14 against 99.07 Wednesday and 99.31 Tuesday. The pound sterling fell against the dollar as the UK S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index fell in May. The composite Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 48.5, against expectation of 51.7. A value of more than 50 shows expansion in business activity. The pound sterling was marginally down against the dollar.

The Japanese yen was marginally higher against the dollar, carrying momentum from Wednesday's strengthening on the back of strong Jan-Mar GDP data and fear of intervention by the Bank of Japan. The euro was 0.14% higher against the dollar as hopes of a peace deal in West Asia grew, with Trump saying that the US and Iran may strike a peace deal soon.

The Canadian dollar was down 0.1% against the dollar, while the Swedish krona was 0.4% higher against the dollar. (Suryash Kumar)

India Rupee: 1-yr premium dn as RBI sells fwds; importers' demand limits fall

MUMBAI – Long-term dollar rupee forward premiums fell slightly as dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions. In early trade, the RBI stepped in at various levels to support the rupee in the spot market, dealers said.

A fall in crude oil prices also supported the rupee in the spot market, which weighed on long-term forward premiums. Crude oil prices fell nearly 6% late Wednesday after US President Donald Trump said the US and Iran were nearing a peace deal. He also said Washington would strike Tehran "in places no one can imagine" if it fails to submit a deal soon.

Investors were cautious about the outcome of the peace deal, which kept crude oil prices on the edge Thursday. At 1339 IST, Brent crude oil for July delivery was at $105.94 a barrel, slightly up from $105.02 Wednesday, but down from $111.28 Tuesday. 

Short-term forward premiums rose as banks bought dollars persistently on behalf of importers amid a sharp rise in the rupee in the spot market. The rupee erased some gains in the spot market after it rose 74 paise against the dollar in early trade. A fall in US Treasury yields led to a rise in short-term forward premiums and limited gains in the long term. At 1349 IST, US Treasury yields were at 4.58%, against 4.59% Wednesday and 4.66% Tuesday.

At 1349 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.44%, lower than Wednesday's close of 3.51%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 333.87 paise, against 342.0 paise Wednesday. (Divya Moolayattil)

India Rupee: Erases some gains as importers buy dlrs; RBI's intervention aids

MUMBAI – The rupee gave up some gains after rising sharply as banks bought dollars persistently on behalf of importers, amid sharp appreciation in the Indian unit, dealers said. "The rupee has risen after falling for two weeks, so it is obvious that importers will rush in to bid at every dip," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

The rupee rose 78 paise from its previous close and neared 96.00 a dollar in early trade Thursday after the Reserve Bank of India intervened by selling dollars through state-owned banks. "The RBI is not going to target any levels. Yesterday (Wednesday), the rupee neared 97 (a dollar) and there was high volatility in the market. The RBI's primary goal was to contain depreciation and reduce volatility," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

The rupee was strengthened by positive cues on the war front and lower crude oil prices, dealers said. Oil prices fell nearly 6% Wednesday after US President Donald Trump said peace talks with Iran were in the final stages. He also said that Washington would attack Tehran if it failed to submit 'an acceptable' proposal. Brent crude oil prices for July delivery rose to $106.37 a barrel from $105.02 Wednesday, but sharply down from $111.28 a barrel Tuesday. The Indian unit rose rapidly in early trade as stop-losses were triggered on short dollar bets at 96.50, dealers said. 

Although the pace of FPI outflows from the Indian market has slowed, it continues to put pressure on the rupee, dealers said. FPIs have sold Indian assets worth $1.52 billion so far in May. At 1235 IST, the Sensex and Nifty 50 were marginally lower from the previous close.

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 96.20 and 96.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.50 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

India Rupee: Sharply up as oil falls on hope on US-Iran peace deal

India Rupee: Sharply up as oil falls on hopes on US-Iran peace deal 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar early Thursday as risk appetite among investors improved and oil prices fell after US President Donald Trump Wednesday said peace talks between the US and Iran were in the final stages. However, he said failure in negotiations would prompt military action against Iran. "We will either have a peace deal or we're going to do some things that are a little bit nasty. But hopefully that won't happen," he said. The rupee opened 66 paise higher than its previous close.

"All currencies are following oil prices and the news around the Strait of Hormuz. If you see the pattern, once in every week, Trump gives a positive statement and currencies get a breather," a dealer at a public sector bank said. Crude oil prices fell sharply after hopes of a peace deal improved. Brent crude oil fell nearly 6% to $105 a barrel late Wednesday. At 0915 IST, Brent crude oil prices for July delivery were at $105.8 a barrel, slightly higher than $105.02 Wednesday, but sharply down from $112.1 a barrel Tuesday.  

Dealers speculate that the Reserve Bank of India intervened by way of dollar sales around 96.30 a dollar level, which supported the rupee significantly. "The impact of intervention is more when global factors are also positive. There won't be many forces against the rupee then," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "I don't think the rupee will touch the record low levels of yesterday, until anything changes globally."  

However, dealers expect importers to step in to buy dollars, noting relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, which could limit gains for the Indian unit. "Importers will flock in to buy dollars if there is more progress in the peace talks. Otherwise, importer demand will be as expected," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

The Indian unit was also supported by a sharp rise in domestic indices, they said. The Nifty 50 and Sensex opened sharply higher and were up 0.6%, as of 0910 IST. Asian equities also rose, tracking gains on Wall Street. 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 96.20 and 96.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 96.20 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

India Rupee - Asia FX: Most Asian currencies fall, hopes of US-Iran deal up

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies were down against the dollar, with the dollar index inching up on Thursday even as broader risk sentiment in the market improved with US President Donald Trump signalling that the US and Iran might reach an agreement to end the war soon. Trump said that Washington was in the "final stages" of negotiations with Iran, lifting market sentiment. He also said his options on the Iran war remained open. "Do we go and finish it up, or are they going to be signing a document?"

Brent crude oil prices hovered around Wednesday's levels, which were sharply down from Tuesday's closing price. Brent crude oil prices for delivery in July traded at $105.52 per barrel at 0815 IST, against $111.28 per barrel at close on Tuesday.

However, Iran's chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the US and Israel would "regret attacking Iran again" as Iran had used the ceasefire to rebuild its military capabilities. The dollar index was at 99.18, against 99.07 Wednesday and 99.31 Tuesday.

The South Korean won fell 0.5% against the dollar, while the Indonesia rupiah fell 0.4% against the dollar. The rupiah hit an all-time low earlier in the week as foreign investors withdrew from Indonesian bonds and equities amid a strengthening dollar and weak global market sentiment. 

The Malaysian ringgit was marginally down against the US dollar, while the Chinese yuan was marginally higher. The Taiwanese dollar was up nearly 0.1% against the greenback. The Philippine peso was down 0.2% against the dollar amid high crude oil prices and a strong dollar putting downward pressure on the peso.  (Suryash Kumar) 

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - May 21

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

(Divya Moolayattil)

US$1 = INR 96.2000

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.