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Informist, Wednesday, May 20, 2026

By Arundathi A R

MUMBAI – Headline stock indices may extend losses for the second session Wednesday and open lower after US President Donald Trump said the US might strike Iran again. After taking a brief relief for a day, Brent crude oil prices breached the $110 a barrel mark again. The indices may also track their Asian peers, which were in the red in early trade. Analysts were firm in their stance that global news flows and crude oil price changes could determine market sentiment largely in the near term.

At 0820 IST, the Brent crude oil July futures contract was largely flat at $111.25 a barrel.

Trump warned Iran of a potential strike if it doesn't reach a deal in "two or three days", adding Iran's leaders were begging for a deal. He made the comment a day after his decision to call off attacks on Iran. "I was an hour away from making the decision to go today," Trump told reporters at the White House Tuesday, Reuters reported.

According to an Iranian official, the US threat of an assault at any moment will be met "resolutely", and Iran is "prepared to confront any military aggression," Al Jazeera reported. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said "dialogue does not mean surrender", and that Tehran has entered into talks with the US with "dignity, authority, and the preservation of the nation's rights," according to the report.

Addressing a White House press briefing Tuesday, US Vice-President J.D. Vance said the Iran conflict would not become a "forever war," Firstpost reported. He added he was "not certain" about the prospects of a deal with Iran, and that he felt good about the chances of working towards an agreement.

At 0735 IST, the May futures contract of the GIFT Nifty was a tad lower at 23444.50 from its previous close. The movement of the GIFT Nifty suggested a lower opening for the benchmark indices and the spot level of the GIFT Nifty was short of over 170 points from the Nifty 50's previous close of 23618. "On the levels front, the index faces immediate resistance near 23800, while the support zone is placed in the 23262–23317 range in the near term," said Nandish Shah, senior derivative and technical analyst at HDFC Securities. "Technically, Nifty continues to consolidate within a narrow range over the past five sessions, highlighting the absence of a clear directional bias and lack of follow-through moves."

After buying from the Indian equity market for the last three sessions, foreign institutional investors again turned net sellers Tuesday. They offloaded shares worth INR 24.57 billion, while domestic institutional investors net bought shares of INR 38.02 billion.

Brokerage Emkay Global Financial Services expects the RBI to adopt other defence mechanisms, including direct intervention, to support the rupee, it said in a media roundtable Tuesday. Interest rates by themselves are unlikely to create any major defence for the rupee in a "sell-off situation", according to Seshadri Sen, head of research and strategist at Emkay Global. On Tuesday, the rupee fell sharply against the dollar to a record closing low of 96.5325. The rupee has shed almost 6% since the start of the West Asia war in February.

Emkay also sees strong margin movement and expects much lower credit costs in 2026–27 (Apr-Mar) as the asset quality cycle is largely peaked. "Those two factors will lead to very strong growth in earnings for private sector banks," the brokerage said.

Shares of Grasim Industries and Apollo Hospitals Enterprise will be in focus as they will detail its March quarter earnings later in the day. Grasim Industries is expected to report subdued earnings as volumes are likely to see a dip and margins of its paints and chemical businesses are likely to be weak. The company's net loss is expected to shrink in the March quarter to INR 1.42 billion from INR 2.88 billion in the corresponding quarter a year ago. Its top line will likely rise almost 19% to INR 106.16 billion on a standalone basis.

Apollo Hospitals is expected to post a strong rise in its net profit and revenue for the March quarter, driven by healthy performance in its hospital business and pharmacy segment. It is expected to post a net profit of INR 4.75 billion, up 22% on year. The top line of the company is seen at INR 64.52 billion for the reporting quarter, up 15% on year.

Most Asian equity indices were down, with Topix First Section down 1.7%. All three major US indices settled lower for the previous session.  End

US$1 = INR 96.5325

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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