India Stocks Outlook
Mkts to track global cues, oil price, rupee near term
This story was originally published at 18:13 IST on 19 May 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Tuesday, May 19, 2026
By Arundathi A R
MUMBAI – Analysts expect market participants to take a cautious stance near term after the indices slipped into the red at Tuesday's close even as they traded higher for most of the session. Analysts see high oil prices, foreign investment flow, and rupee to remain the major factors that could dictate the market direction. US President Donald Trump calling off attacks on Iran has opened up some room for optimism for the equity market.
"The key resistance for the coming week is placed near 23850," said Jigar Patel, senior manager of equity technical research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers. "A sustained move above this level may trigger fresh upside towards 24500–25000. On the downside, support is placed near 23500, below which Nifty may retest 23300–23100 levels." Tuesday, the Nifty 50 closed at 23618, down 31.95 points or 0.1%. The BSE Sensex also settled in the red at 75200.85, down 114.19 points or 0.2%.
Brokerage Emkay Global Financial Services expects the Reserve Bank of India to raise repo rate by 100 basis points in 2026-27 (Apr-Mar), if the energy crisis due to the West Asia war persists, it said in a media roundtable Tuesday. "We also think that if this (West Asia war) scenario continues and the external account stays under pressure, the RBI may be forced to hike (repo) rates sooner rather than later," said Seshadri Sen, head of research and strategist at Emkay Global. "Domestic growth will slow down, if we have these levels of geopolitical volatility and uncertainty," according to Emkay.
Emkay expects oil prices to fall to the $80 a barrel mark if the Strait of Hormuz opens and could attain normality back. At 1618 IST, the Brent crude oil July futures contract was nearly 2% lower at $110.33 a barrel. The brokerage also said it expects a double-digit earnings growth for the Nifty 50 companies by FY28.
The stress from the energy crisis is likely to be seen from the June quarter despite a fairly good earnings growth momentum and commentary in the March quarter, Emkay said in the meeting. In case of no resolution to the ongoing Iran war, it expects that the market will ignore the better-than-expected March quarter earnings. It remained confident of an FY27-28 earnings recovery. "And if the market does correct in the near term, that would be a buying opportunity," the brokerage said.
Kotak Institutional Equities suggested more measures are required in the event of a prolonged war. "Oil supplies may take a few more months to normalise, even if Iran and the US were to cease hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz soon," the brokerage said in its report.
Foreign and domestic investors cushioned the Indian equity market Monday, buying shares worth INR 28.14 billion and INR 26.82 billion, respectively.
"Market participants continue to prefer dollar buying and rupee selling as a hedge against ongoing volatility and external sector pressure. The broader trend remains weak, with the rupee expected to trade in a range of 96.25–97.00 in the near term," Jateen Trivedi, research analyst of commodity and currency at LKP Securities, said in a note. Tuesday, the rupee settled again at a record closing low of 96.5325 against the dollar.
On Wednesday, focus will be on shares of Grasim Industry which will report its March quarter earnings. The company is expected to report subdued earnings as volumes are likely to see a dip and margins of its paints and chemical businesses are likely to be weak. The company's net loss is expected to shrink in the March quarter to INR 1.42 billion from INR 2.88 billion, reported in the corresponding quarter a year ago. Its top line will likely rise almost 19% to INR 106.16 billion on a standalone basis. End
US$1 = INR 96.5325
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.
To read more please subscribe
Share this Story:
