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Informist, Monday, May 18, 2026

By Arundathi A R

MUMBAI – Resumption of the rise of Brent crude oil prices to above $110 a barrel after renewed tensions about the US-Iran conflict is likely to lead headline stock indices to open lower Monday. Most Asian markets were also down in early trade post US President Donald Trump's warning to Iran that the "clock is ticking" for a peace deal to be reached with Washington. At 0719 IST, the Brent crude oil July futures contract was over 2% higher at $111.65 per barrel. Foreign investment flows and the rupee's levels are also coupled with crude oil prices, which are expected to largely dictate the market direction ahead.

Trump on Sunday warned Iran there won't be anything left of the country unless it agreed to a deal. "For Iran, the Clock is ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE," NDTV reported, quoting Trump as posting on his social media platform, Truth Social. Trump's threat came after he spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Saudi Arabia intercepted three drones, as the UAE reported a separate drone strike near its Barakah nuclear power plant, which sparked a fire, Al Jazeera reported. Meanwhile, Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament's national security committee, said Iran was preparing a new system to regulate maritime movement through the Strait of Hormuz, according to various news reports. He also said Iran plans to charge fees for specialised services offered under the proposed mechanism, and added that only commercial vessels and parties cooperating ‌with Iran would benefit from the arrangement.

Movement in the Gift Nifty's May futures contract suggested a lower opening for the Nifty 50 index Monday. At 0734 IST, the Gift Nifty was almost 1% lower at 23551, which was short of over 90 points from the Nifty 50's previous close of 23643.50.

The Nifty 50 is expected to face resistance at 23800-23850 levels and find support at 23500-23400 levels, according to Vipin Kumar, technical and derivatives analyst at Globe Capital Market.

"The continuation of the Middle East conflict is beginning to weigh on India's macrofinancial stability, with sustained CAD pressure and continued selling by FPIs (foreign portfolio investors)," Emkay global Financial Services said in an India strategy report. "Pump prices were finally hiked by INR 3/ltr but we expect more as under-recoveries persist at INR 17-INR 18/ltr. We see significant downside risk for Indian equities until the resolution of the Gulf conflict and reopening of SoH (Strait of Hormuz)," according to the report. "However, we expect normalcy to return in the coming weeks and see any weakness as an entry opportunity, with discretionary and industrials as key overweights."

The government cut the windfall gains tax on the export of diesel and aviation turbine fuel for the fortnight, which started from Saturday. The special additional excise duty, or windfall gains tax, on the export of diesel was reduced by INR 6.50 to INR 16.50 per litre, according to a notification issued by the finance ministry Friday. The tax on aviation turbine fuel was cut by INR 17 to INR 16 per litre. The government also introduced windfall gains tax of INR 3 per litre on the export of petrol.

In another development, the government has imposed restrictions on silver imports to cut down on demand for precious metals to ease the pressure on the rupee and foreign exchange reserves. The curbs were imposed after silver imports jumped 157% on-year in April to $411 million.

Foreign institutional investors bucked their prolonged selling activity on Thursday and remained buyers on Friday as well, while domestic institutional investors reversed their buying spree Friday. Foreign investors turned net buyers for the second session Friday, buying shares worth INR 13.29 billion. Domestic investors net sold shares worth INR 19.59 billion in the previous session.

Shares of Power Grid Corp. will be in focus as the company announced its March quarter results Friday post market hours. Its bottom line for the quarter was slightly above the Street's view, with the top line falling on year and way short of the Street's estimate. The company posted a net profit of INR 45.53 billion for Jan-Mar, which is an on-year rise of 5%, compared to a 2% on-year rise estimated by the Street at INR 44.36 billion. Power Grid's revenue for the quarter fell over 9% on year to INR 99.71 billion. Analysts had expected the top line to rise to INR 128 billion. Friday, shares of Power Grid Corp. ended over 1% higher at INR 305.85 on the National Stock Exchange.

American Depositary Receipts of Infosys and Wipro rose over 3% and over 2%, respectively. Meanwhile, those of Sify Technologies and HDFC Bank fell over 4% and over 1%, respectively.

Barring the Kospi and SSE Composite Index, all Asian equity indices declined in early trade. All major US indices settled over 1% lower Friday.  End

US$1 = INR 95.97

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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