More Stories

Informist, Friday, May 15, 2026

 

By Arundathi A R

 

MUMBAI – Uncertainties surrounding the US-Iran conflict and rising crude oil prices may prompt market participants to brace for volatile sessions ahead. Analysts expect the negative bias to continue unless talks on a US-Iran ceasefire take a positive turn. However, strong March quarter earnings could revive positive market momentum despite global pressures, analysts said. 

 

"Even though there are macroeconomic challenges, the economy is reasonably resilient," the assistant fund manager of fixed income at a top broking firm said. However, he sees the broader market underperforming due to the macroeconomic pressures and expects things to stabilise within 6–8 months. "Inflation impact can be seen in the next 2–3 quarters," the fund manager said.

 

India and the United Arab Emirates Friday signed key agreements on energy security, including supporting India's strategic oil reserves, during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Abu Dhabi. The agreements come in the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in West Asia, which has hit India's oil and gas supplies from the region. Speaking on the occasion, Modi said targeting the UAE during the war by Iran was "not acceptable". Modi also said keeping the Strait of Hormuz "free, open, and safe" was a "top priority."
 

Meanwhile, Indian Oil Corp. has hiked petrol and diesel retail prices in New Delhi by INR 3 per litre to INR 97.77 and INR 90.67, respectively. "In the longer term, such moves may further accelerate the push towards EV adoption and reduced dependence on imported fuel," Jateen Trivedi, commodity and currency research analyst at LKP Securities, said in a note. According to economists at Barclays, the first increase in retail petrol and diesel prices in nearly four years is likely to push up headline CPI inflation by 15 basis points.

 

Friday, the Nifty 50 settled at 23643.50, down 46.10 points or 0.2%. The BSE Sensex closed at 75237.99, down 160.73 points or 0.2% lower. Brokerage Emkay Global Financial Services sees the continued energy crisis pushing the Nifty 50 index to 21000, which is 12.4?low its long-term average price-to-earnings multiple. "The market has partially priced in the post-war normalcy, but now faces the near-term consequences of crude persisting at $100-$110," the brokerage said in a strategy report. Emkay expects possible defensive policy measures to protect financial stability. Analysts see the Nifty 50 finding support at 23580 and facing resistance at 23800 points.

 

Emkay expects the government's recent import duty hikes on gold and silver to 15% from 6% to reduce the country's current account deficit as a percentage of GDP by 23 basis points. However, this may raise the CPI inflation by 8–9 bps, it said.

 

With global crude oil prices surging, oil marketing companies were under mounting pressure from rising input costs and shrinking marketing margins, Ajit Mishra, senior vice president of research at Religare Broking, said in a note. "While fuel availability remains stable, the hike is likely to intensify inflationary pressures across the economy. Higher transportation and logistics costs could gradually push up prices of essential goods and services, increasing the burden on household budgets and raising overall cost-of-living concerns in the near term," he said in the note. At 1648 IST, the July Brent crude futures contract was over 2% higher at $108.07 a barrel.

 

The consistent outflows from foreign institutional investors and pressure on the rupee are other major concerns. However, foreign institutional investors turned net buyers on Thursday, net buying shares worth INR 1.87 billion. Domestic institutional investors net bought shares worth INR 6.84 billion on Thursday.

 

The rupee settled at a record closing low of 95.9650 per dollar on Friday, down 0.2% from the previous close. The near-term range for the rupee is seen at 95.55–96.25, according to Trivedi of LKP Securities.  End

 

US$1 = INR 95.9650

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.