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Informist, Friday, May 15, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply and ended at a record closing low against the dollar for the fifth consecutive day as Brent crude price surged to $110 per barrel amid uncertainty around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, dealers said. India's merchandise trade deficit widened in April to a three-month high, which also weighed on the Indian unit and it fell below the psychologically-crucial 96-per-dollar mark to a record low of 96.1425 a dollar during the day, they said. 

 

However, the Reserve Bank of India's likely intervention in the last leg of trade ensured that the Indian unit did not settle below 96.00 per dollar, dealers said. The rupee settled at 95.9650 a dollar on Friday, down 0.2% against Thursday's close of 95.7625 a dollar. The Indian currency fell 1.6% against the dollar this week. 

 

Other Asian currencies also weakened against the greenback Friday, further exerting pressure on the local unit, dealers said. Asian currencies fell 0.3-0.7% against the dollar, with the Thai baht being the worst hit.

 

The Indian currency started the day lower against the dollar due to a rise in crude oil prices and the dollar index, dealers said. "Everyday, we are seeing a gap-up movement of 10 paise because of crude. Now the rupee has crossed 96.00 level, if no positive news comes during the weekend, rupee will touch 96.50 (a dollar) in couple of days," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

Banks also bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, who expect further depreciation of the rupee amid the continued global uncertainty, dealers said. "Importers were buying (dollars) aggressively at every dip," the dealer at a private sector bank said. The Brent crude July futures contract was at $109.60 per barrel at 1530 IST, up from $105.72 per barrel Thursday.

 

India's merchandise trade deficit in April widened 4.7% on year to $28.38 billion, government data released Friday showed, as the war in West Asia continued to disrupt energy imports and made them costlier, which weighed heavily on the Indian unit, they said. The trade deficit for April was sharply higher than $20.67 billion in March. India's imports jumped 10% to $71.94 billion last month, the highest since October 2025.

 

FPI outflows from Indian markets also added to the pressure on the rupee, dealers said. "FPIs have been selling, but more since the onset of war. FPI outflows have been a pain point for the rupee," the dealer said. FPIs have pulled out almost $1.58 billion worth of funds from Indian markets so far in May. FPI outflows so far in 2026 is around $21.76 billion, which is more than double the outflows seen in entire of 2025. On Friday, the Sensex and Nifty 50 fell 0.2% each.

 

A sharp rise in the dollar index to a near three-week high during European trading hours also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 99.12, up from 98.87 Thursday. The index rose to a high of 99.29 during the day as investors bet on rate hikes by the Federal Reserve amid mounting inflation pressures.

 

Dealers said the rise in retail petrol and diesel prices had a very limited impact on the rupee, as it was expected and already priced in. "The state-run oil companies are likely to make more cuts of up to INR 7 soon, as they face a loss of nearly INR 25 amid supply disruption due to war," the dealer said. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.9650	95.8700	95.8675	96.1425	95.7625
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	313.13	308.63	315.90	307.32	304.60

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended at an over two-week high as banks bought forward dollars aggressively on behalf of importers, fearing a further fall in the local unit, dealers said. However, higher US Treasury yields weighed on premiums, dealers said. The US Treasury yield rose to 4.46% Friday, hovering close to a 10-month-high.   

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.26%, up from Thursday's close of 3.18%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 313.13 paise, against 304.60 paise Thursday. It rose to a high of 315.90 paise, or 3.29%, during the day.

 

OUTLOOK

On Monday, the rupee will take cues from movements in crude oil prices and the dollar index as the conflict in West Asia continues to evolve, dealers said. "Unless there's any positive news, the rupee will open at least a 10 paise gap-down and could easily cross 96.25 (a dollar)" a dealer at another private sector bank said.  

 

The rupee is likely to re-visit the 96.00-a-dollar level if crude oil prices keep rising, they said. Continued FPI outflows may also exert downward pressure on the local unit, they said. 

 

Market participants expect the government and the RBI to announce more measures to conserve foreign exchange reserves. They expect the government to slash taxes paid by foreign investors on bond investments, which are likely to support the rupee. "If the tax cut measure is implemented, the rupee will reverse direction to as much as 1 rupee. But only this measure is not enough. The RBI should roll out more to sustain the appreciation of the rupee," a dealer at another private sector bank said.

 

Informist reported earlier in the day, citing a government source, that the RBI and the finance ministry have received proposals from market participants to lower the withholding tax rate on government bonds to attract foreign investment and help protect its foreign exchange reserves. The proposals include lowering the withholding tax from the current 20% to 5%, with some even seeking reducing it to nil. 

 

However, most dealers expect the RBI to continue intervening by selling dollars if the Indian unit comes under pressure. "RBI is likely to hold some levels, but will also let the rupee sink in the global factors," the dealer at another private sector bank said.

 

Market participants will also monitor developments in the meeting between the US and Chinese presidents for cues on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Dealers now see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 96.30 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.80-96.30 against the dollar Monday. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index at 3-wk high on strong US economic data

 

	AT 1512 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3339	1.3405	1.3328	1.3402
EUR/USD	1.1626	1.1672	1.1618	1.1670
NZD/USD	0.5843	0.5913	0.5839	0.5910
AUD/USD	0.7145	0.7223	0.7140	0.7220
USD/JPY	158.5010	158.6760	158.2900	158.3310
USD/CAD	1.3756	1.3757	1.3716	1.3716
EUR/JPY	184.2790	184.8675	184.1800	184.7800
CHF/USD	1.2717	1.2763	1.2711	1.2755
EUR/CHF	0.9141	0.9153	0.9136	0.9146

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose to a near three-week high Friday as strong macroeconomic data and increased inflationary pressure led to expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates later this year. Data on Thursday showed that US retail sales increased further in April while weekly initial jobless claims figures showed stability in the labour market. At 1525 IST, the dollar index was at 99.26 against 98.87 Thursday and 98.45 Wednesday. 

 

The pound sterling fell against the dollar as political chaos in the UK continued, with members of the Labour Party raising doubts over Prime Minister Keir Starmer's ability to lead the party. The Labour Party received a drubbing in the recent local elections, after which there has been mounting pressure on Starmer to resign. The pound sterling was down nearly 1% against the dollar.

 

The yen weakened against the dollar with investors increasingly drifting towards the dollar as risk appetite remains weak due to fading hopes of a peace settlement between the US and Iran. Further, reports said intervention by the Bank of Japan likely supported the yen briefly before the currency weakened against the dollar. The yen was down 0.3% against the dollar. 

 

Japan's wholesale inflation rose in April, its fastest pace in three years, as the US-Iran war sent oil and chemical ‌goods prices up. Japanese wholesale prices rose 4.9% on year in April. This increases the possibility of a rate hike in June when the Bank of Japan meets, with nearly two-thirds of economists in a Reuters poll saying the bank will raise its key interest rate to 1.0%.

 

The euro was down 0.4% against the dollar, while the Canadian dollar was down 0.1%, and the Swiss Franc was 0.4% lower. (Suryash Kumar)

 

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India Rupee: Falls below 96/$1 as trade gap at 3-mo high, oil above $109/bbl

 

--Dealers: Rupee falls below 96/$1 as trade gap widens, Brent above $109/bbl

 

 

	AT 1500 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.0875	95.8700	95.8575	96.1425	95.7625

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell past the psychologically-crucial 96-per-dollar mark and hit a record low of 96.1425 a dollar as India's merchandise trade deficit widened in April to a three-month high and Brent crude oil price rose above $109 a barrel, dealers said. A rise in the dollar index also weighed on the Indian unit, they said. 

 

"RBI had to let go of 96.00 finally since crude and dollar shot up suddenly," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "The trade data is also not good." India's trade deficit rose 4.7% on year to $28.38 billion in April, according to data detailed by the commerce ministry Friday. The trade deficit widened even as exports during the month were the highest in over eight years. 

 

Further, Brent crude price rose above $109 a barrel after US President Donald Trump said he and ‌China's Xi Jinping agree Iran cannot have nuclear weapons, clouding the outlook for a peace deal between Tehran and Washington. Brent crude oil futures for July delivery were at $109.13 a barrel at 1500 IST, up from $105.72 a barrel Thursday. The dollar index rose to 99.28 at 1500 IST, up from 98.87 on Thursday. 

 

Before letting the Indian currency go, earlier in the day, the Reserve Bank of India was likely intervening in the spot market through dollar sales to prevent the Indian unit from falling past the 96.00 level, dealers said. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.90-96.20 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Premium up as importers buy fwd dlr on fear rupee may fall more

 

	AT 1320 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.9075	95.8700	95.8675	95.9500	95.7625
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	308.68	308.63	311.63	307.32	304.60

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose slightly as some banks bought dollars for forward delivery, on behalf of importers, who feared further fall of the local unit, dealers said. "Only few importers are bidding now, which is why the premiums have moved. But, today (Friday) there aren't many deals as the rupee has already reacted to all factors for now and is waiting for more developments on the war and the US-China summit during the weekend," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

Importers, particularly oil importers, are buying forward dollars owing to the looming uncertainty over the West Asia war, dealers said. The Indian unit fell to a low of 95.9500 a dollar Friday, just shy of its record low of 95.9600 a dollar as crude oil prices remained above $107 per barrel Friday amid uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, they said. The Reserve Bank of India likely intervened at around 95.95 levels to avert the rupee from falling to a record low, they said. 

 

"Till there is no positive news on the war front, the rupee will keep depreciating and break 96.00 (a dollar). Once this level breaks, there will be a good rally forward," the dealer said. The rupee has fallen nearly 0.6% this week owing to rising tension between the US and Iran, with both sides holding on to negotiation terms. 

 

Premiums shrugged off the rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to a one-year high, dealers said. US Treasury yields ‌spiked on rising bets of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve this year. 

 

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.22% at 1320 IST, up from Thursday's close of 3.18%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 308.68 paise, against 304.60 paise Thursday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Stays down as Brent crude above $107/bbl; RBI averts record low

 

 

	AT 1200 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.9250	95.8700	95.8675	95.9500	95.7625

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained sharply lower against the dollar Friday as Brent crude oil price rose above $107 a barrel as peace talks between the US and Iran showed no sign of progress after ending in a deadlock earlier in the week. "The rupee movement is war-driven. The market will be cautious until anything concrete happens in negotiations between both countries," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. Brent crude oil price for July delivery was $107.6 a barrel at 1130 IST, up from $105.72 a barrel Thursday. 

 

However, dealers said state-owned banks' dollar sales, likely for the Reserve Bank of India, is preventing the Indian unit from hitting a record low. The Indian unit fell to a low of 95.9500 a dollar Friday, just shy of its record low of 95.9600 a dollar. The rupee has moved in a tight range of just 11 paise so far Thursday.  

 

A sharp rise in the dollar index also weighed on the Indian unit, they said. The dollar index climbed above 99 and hit a near three-week high as traders' expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve later this year increased amid mounting inflationary pressures. At 1124 IST, the dollar index was at 99.15, up from 98.87 Thursday. 

Banks bought dollars on behalf of the importers, who feared a further fall of the rupee, which weighed on the Indian unit, they said. "The importers were there, but they are currently cautious and waiting for war developments to play out in the weekend," the dealer said.

 

Further, foreign portfolio investors outflows from the Indian market is also exerting pressure on the rupee, they said. The FPIs have pulled out almost $1.58 billion worth of funds from Indian markets so far in May. FPI outflows so far in 2026 is around $21.76 billion, which is more than double the outflows seen in entire of 2025. 

 

Meanwhile, the state-run fuel retailers raised petrol and diesel prices by INR 3 per litre, marking the first increase in four years, adding to inflation concerns and potentially increasing pressure on the current account deficit. 

 

Market participants are also monitoring developments in the meeting between the US and Chinese Presidents for cues on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. They will also monitor India's trade data for April due later in the day. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.70-96.00 a dollar. Dealers see a strong technical support for the rupee at 96.00 a dollar, a break of which may drag rupee to 96.30-96.50. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - May 15

 

MUMBAI – At 1033 IST, the rupee was at 95.9300 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.8700 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.7625. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages.

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	96.25	96.05	95.70	95.55
Private-sector bank	96.50	96.20	95.70	95.50
Private-sector bank	96.40	96.10	95.60	95.40
Private-sector bank	96.25	96.05	95.50	95.40
Brokerage firm	96.50	96.00	95.60	95.50
Brokerage firm	96.30	96.00	95.50	95.30

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Falls; near record low as crude oil price, dollar index rise

 

	AT 0956 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.9325	95.8700	95.8675	95.9400	95.7625

 

MUMBAI – The rupee continued its losing streak for the sixth day and fell close to its record low of 95.9600 against the dollar as Brent crude prices and the dollar index rose amid uncertainty about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the war in West Asia. Persistent dollar buys by banks on behalf of importers also weighed on the Indian unit, they said.  

At 0937 IST, Brent crude oil futures for July delivery traded at $107.01 per barrel, up from $105.72 a barrel Thursday. "Crude will be on the higher side amid uncertainties. Now the market is waiting to see whether the pain will increase or not," said a dealer at a private-sector bank. The Indian currency fell to 95.9400 shortly after opening Friday.  

 

Market participants are also keeping a close watch on the outcome of the summit between the US and Chinese Presidents. "What comes out of the US and China meeting is important as it will also decide the direction of the war, which in turn will decide the direction of the rupee," a dealer at a foreign bank said. "Anything on reopening of Strait of Hormuz will change direction of the rupee."

 

The dollar index hit a near three-week high following the release of robust data on US retail sales, which grew by 0.5% month-over-month in April. At 0930 IST, the dollar index was at 99.04, against 98.87 on Thursday and 98.45 on Wednesday. 

A fall in other Asian currencies also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. Most Asian currencies were down 0.2-0.4% against the dollar in early trade Friday, with the Malayasian ringgit being the worst hit.

However, dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to sell dollars and keep the Indian currency from falling past the psychologically-crucial 96-per-dollar mark. "RBI is expected to intervene anytime and protect 96.00 level," the dealer said. However, dealers don't expect the RBI to intervene aggressively. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.50-96.00 a dollar. Dealers see strong technical support for the rupee at 96.00 a dollar, a break of which may drag rupee to 96.30-96.50. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - May 15

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	96.05	95.50
Public-sector bank	96.00	95.70
Private-sector bank	96.10	95.73
Private-sector bank	96.00	95.40
Foreign bank	96.00	95.50
Brokerage firm	96.00	95.25
Brokerage firm	96.00	95.65
Brokerage firm	95.99	95.65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Down as crude price rises; Trump-Xi meet in focus

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies fell against the dollar amid high crude oil prices and no clear path to resolve the West Asia crisis following the meeting between the US and Chinese presidents. A rise in the dollar index also weighed. At 0840 IST, Brent crude oil prices for delivery in July traded at $107.29 per barrel, up nearly 2% from the previous day's close.

 

US President Donald Trump said that Chinese President Xi Jinping indicated he wants to help negotiate an end to the conflict and support reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Market participants will keep a close eye on the second day of a high-stakes summit between Trump and Xi, with the US president seeking economic wins from Beijing. The Chinese yuan was down 0.1% against the dollar. 

 

The Malaysian ringgit fell 0.4% against the dollar ahead of Malaysia's first-quarter GDP data later Friday. Malaysia's economy is expected to grow 5.3% in Jan-Mar, down from 6.3% in the previous quarter, according to a Reuters poll.  

 

The Philippine peso fell to a record low Thursday, down 0.2% against the dollar, owing to domestic political tensions and high crude prices. The Thai baht was down 0.2% against the dollar, while the South Korean won was down 0.5%. The Taiwanese dollar was marginally down against the US dollar on Friday. (Suryash Kumar)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.9650

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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