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Informist, Thursday, May 14, 2026

 

By Astha Oriel

 

NEW DELHI – Tata Steel Ltd. is likely to report a sharp year-on-year increase in its consolidated bottom line for the March quarter due to higher realisations in its domestic operations as steel prices rose, according to brokerages. The company is likely to report a moderate year-on-year increase in its consolidated top line, driven by an increase in volumes, according to analysts. The company's Europe business, however, is expected to remain in the red, primarily due to continued losses in the UK operations and contraction in sales volumes in the Netherlands, where price increases are likely to be realised with a one-quarter lag, starting Apr-Jun, according to analysts.

 

The company's consolidated net profit for the March quarter is expected to be INR 30.75 billion, up 82% on year and nearly 9% on quarter, according to the average of estimates from 14 brokerages. Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd. has the highest estimate for net profit at INR 41.33 billion, whereas the lowest estimate is INR 23.36 billion by Nomura Equity Research. This is likely to be the slowest year-on-year increase in the company's consolidated net profit in five quarters, as per analysts' consensus.

 

The net sales of the Mumbai-headquartered company are expected to be INR 619.76 billion, up more than 10% on year and nearly 9% on quarter, according to the analysts' estimates. Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. has the highest estimate for net sales at INR 676.41 billion, whereas the lowest estimate is INR 580.83 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. If realised, the on-year growth in the company's net sales will be the fastest in three quarters.

 

The consolidated sales volume of Tata Steel is seen at 8.7 million tonnes, according to the average of estimates from five brokerages. In the year-ago quarter, the company's sales volume was 8.33 million tonnes. "We expect Tata Steel's standalone business to report an 11% y-y (year-on-year) volume increase in 4QFY26F (Jan-Mar), while the European business will likely report a 7% y-y volume decline," Nomura said in an earnings preview note.

 

On a standalone basis, the company's India operations are expected to clock volumes of around 6.2 million tonnes, according to six brokerages. In the year-ago quarter, the volume of the domestic business was 5.60 million tonnes. For its Europe business, three brokerages expect the standalone volumes to be around 1.92–2.2 million tonnes.

 

"We expect TATA (Steel) to deliver a strong sequential performance, supported by strong volumes and improvement in domestic steel prices. The benefit of pricing is likely to be partially offset by a rise in coking coal costs; however, operating leverage should aid margin expansion QoQ," YES Securities Ltd. said in an earnings preview note. Coking coal prices are expected to rise $10-$15 per tonne (INR 956–INR 1,434 per tonne) in the March quarter, according to a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services. The brokerage said the average domestic hot rolled coil prices surged INR 6,700 per tonne quarter-on-quarter to INR 54,000 per tonne and the average primary rebar prices increased INR 10,000 per tonne sequentially to INR 57,200 per tonne in the March quarter.

 

The company's consolidated net sales realisations are expected to be INR 71,442 per tonne, according to the average of estimates from four brokerages. On a standalone basis, Nuvama Wealth Management and JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. expect the realisation per tonne to increase by INR 3,000 and INR 3,200 per tonne, respectively, due to higher steel prices. "On steel realisations, we expect Tata Steel to report INR 3,000/t q-q (quarter-on-quarter) improvement in domestic realisations and around EUR 30-EUR 35 per tonne (around INR 3,362–INR 3,923) decline in Europe," Nomura said in an earnings preview note.

 

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation, or EBITDA, is seen at INR 95.05 billion, up more than 46% on year and nearly 15% on quarter, according to brokerages' estimates. Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. has the highest estimate for EBITDA at INR 99.80 billion, and the lowest estimate is INR 91.77 billion by Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd.

 

The company's consolidated EBITDA per tonne is expected to be INR 10,985, much higher than INR 7,810 in the year-ago quarter, according to estimates by four brokerages. On a standalone basis, the EBITDA per tonne for India operations is expected to be INR 14,740, according to the average of six brokerages' estimates. The company's adjusted EBITDA per tonne for India operations was INR 13,264 in the year-ago quarter. For its Europe operations, the EBITDA per tonne is expected to decline to $4-$8 per tonne, according to three brokerages. "Tata Steel Europe EBITDA/t is likely to improve to negative $4 per tonne (versus negative $10 per tonne in Q3FY26) driven by higher steel prices in the UK and higher volumes in Netherlands," Nuvama Wealth Management said in an earnings preview report.

 

For 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), the company's net profit is expected to be INR 106.90 billion–INR 113.26 billion, according to estimates from three brokerages.

 

The company's FY26 net sales are expected at INR 2.34 trillion, according to the brokerages' estimates. For FY26, the company's EBITDA is expected to be INR 340.61 billion.

 

Analysts will watch out for the management's commentary on the outlook for volumes in FY27 across both India and Europe operations, its capital expenditure plans for new domestic capacities, and the impact of the West Asia conflict on demand.

 

The company will announce its March quarter earnings on Friday. Thursday, shares of the company closed nearly 1% higher at INR 221.13 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock has risen more than 9% since the company announced its December quarter earnings on Feb. 6.  

 

Of the 15 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, 13 have a ‘buy' recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 229. This is over 4% higher than Thursday's closing share price. Two brokerages have a 'hold' recommendation

 

Following are the estimates for Tata Steel's March quarter earnings, in INR billion, from 14 brokerage firms in descending order of the net profit estimate:

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Brokerages	Net Sales	Net Profit	EBITDA
Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd.	588.38	41.33	95.32
YES Securities (India) Ltd.	619.31	40.31	94.19
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd.	609.10	37.30	99.80
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd.	581.89	36.49	91.77
HDFC Securities Ltd.	628.75	34.89	97.24
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	615.38	31.14	94.01
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.	676.41	27.63	94.60
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	580.83	27.24	95.91
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.	586.78	27.09	95.70
ICICI Securities Ltd.	641.57	26.64	93.55
Kotak Securities Ltd.	641.07	26.06	95.28
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.	645.70	26.00	94.80
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.	652.70	25.00	94.50
Nomura Equity Research	608.83	23.36	94.05
Average	619.76	30.75	95.05

 

End

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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