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Informist, Thursday, May 14, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased all gains and settled at a record closing low against the dollar for the fourth consecutive day due to high crude oil prices stemming from the war in West Asia and persistent dollar buys by importers, dealers said. 

 

"The market was very volatile today because of the geopolitical factors. Till there is positive news, rupee is going to be under pressure" a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

The Indian currency recovered from its record low hit earlier in the day and rose after a Bloomberg report said that the government was considering cuts on taxes paid by foreign investors on bond investments. The finance ministry is evaluating the Reserve Bank of India's proposal to attract foreign inflows, the report said, citing sources. Further, the RBI's intervention through dollar sales also ensured the Indian currency did not fall beyond the psychologically crucial 96-a-dollar mark, dealers said. 

 

The Indian currency rose to 95.6250 a dollar during the day but went on to settle at 95.7625 a dollar Thursday, falling for the fifth consecutive day, against 95.7050 on Wednesday. The rupee hit a record low of 95.9600 a dollar during the day.

 

The rupee fell to a record low just few hours into trading as crude oil prices remained higher, above $105 a barrel, with no sight of a near-term peace deal between the US and Iran, dealers said. Brent crude oil prices for July delivery were $106.40 a barrel at 1530 IST, slightly up from $105.63 a barrel Wednesday but below $107.77 a barrel Tuesday.

 

However, state-owned banks stepped in to sell dollars on behalf of the central bank, which supported the Indian unit, dealers said. "The RBI came in moderately in the market at around 95.96 level. They protected the rupee from falling to 96.00 (a dollar), but were not aggressive," a dealer at another private-sector bank said. 

 

Further, the currency erased losses after Bloomberg reported that India is considering a reduction in the taxes paid by foreign investors on bond investments. "There will be dollar inflows, which will support the rupee. This is kind of a permanent measure, so if it is implemented, the rupee will rise to 94.50 levels," a dealer at a large private-sector bank said. 

However, the rupee again came under pressure as banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. Fear of further depreciation of the Indian currency due to tensions in West Asia has prompted oil marketing companies and other importers to actively purchase dollars, they said. 

 

The dollar index was marginally up during European trading hours, which further weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 98.51, up from 98.45 Wednesday.

 

However, a sharp rise in domestic equity indices also supported the Indian unit, they said. On Thursday, the Nifty and Sensex closed 1.2% and 1.1% higher, respectively. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7625	95.7300	95.6250	95.9600	95.7050
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	304.60	312.60	318.30	303.70	312.07

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium erased all gains and ended lower Thursday, breaking a four-day rising streak, as banks sold forward dollars on behalf of exporters, noting the rupee's sharp fall to a record low, dealers said. Some dealers speculated the RBI's sale of dollars for long-term forward delivery to neutralise the liquidity impact of intervention through dollar sales in the spot market also weighed on the forward premiums.    

 

However, the fall in premiums was limited as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who feared further depreciation of the rupee. The one-year premium rose to a high of 318.30 paise, or 3.32%, earlier in the day.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.18%, down from Wednesday's close of 3.24%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 304.60 paise, against 312.07 paise Wednesday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Friday, the rupee will take cues from movement in crude oil prices amid a ‌high-stakes summit in Beijing between US President Donald Trump and China's Xi Jinping, dealers said. The rupee could fall to 96.00-a-dollar level if crude oil prices climb to $110 per barrel, they said. "Due to the uncertainty, it is difficult to say what will happen. Market is in a wait-and-watch mode tracking developments of the war in West Asia," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

Market participants will also watch out for an official confirmation on the news of tax cuts on foreigners' bond investments. "Now, it's just talks, but any official confirmation regarding RBI's proposal will support the rupee, and can take rupee to 94.50 tomorrow (Friday)," the dealer mentioned above said. 

 

Some dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, fearing further depreciation of the rupee. "Importers and exporters will be in a wait-and-watch mode tracking developments of the war in West Asia, instead of aggressively trading," the dealer said. Continued FPI outflows may also exert downward pressure on the local unit, they said. 

 

However, most dealers expect the RBI to continue intervening by selling dollars to protect 96.00 a dollar level. "It is unlikely the rupee will fall past 96.00 tomorrow (Friday), RBI is likely to come in, like it did today," the dealer said.    

 

Dealers now see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 96.00 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.50-96.00 against the dollar Friday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Pound Sterling rises on strong Jan-Mar UK GDP data

 

	AT 1550 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3512	1.3533	1.3504	1.3518
EUR/USD	1.1708	1.1721	1.1705	1.1712
NZD/USD	0.5936	0.5942	0.5927	0.5930
AUD/USD	0.7245	0.7264	0.7241	0.7255
USD/JPY	157.9010	157.9940	157.5180	157.7950
USD/CAD	1.3714	1.3716	1.3702	1.3702
EUR/JPY	184.8710	185.0516	184.5600	184.8600
CHF/USD	1.2789	1.2809	1.2779	1.2780
EUR/CHF	0.9152	0.9162	0.9152	0.9152

 

MUMBAI – The pound sterling was slightly up against the dollar as UK's GDP data for Jan-Mar saw a 0.6% on-quarter increase, on expected lines. However, investors still have doubts whether the data suggests more of a permanent robustness in the UK economy or the usual trend of the economy growing faster in the first quarter than any other quarter. The growth came on the back of increased activity across the service sector. The sterling was 0.2% higher against the dollar.

 

The dollar index was marginally up Thursday, with the US-Iran peace talks running into a stalemate and higher crude oil prices weighing on countries' dependency on oil imports for their energy needs. The dollar index was at 98.51 against 98.45 Wednesday and 98.28 Tuesday. Further, investors are increasingly betting on the US Federal Reserve keeping rates high for longer and with some expecting a rate hike this year. This further strengthened the dollar against other currencies. 

 

The Japanese yen weakened against the dollar amid global uncertainty and rising bets on the Fed keeping the rates high. The yen was marginally down against the dollar. The Bank of Japan's former governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, said intervention by the bank is likely to have a short-term impact on supporting the yen against the dollar.

 

The euro was marginally up against the dollar.  (Suryash Kumar)

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India Rupee: Premium falls as banks likely sell fwd dollars for exporters

 

 

	AT 1440 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7600	95.7300	95.6250	95.9600	95.7050
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	307.10	312.60	318.30	306.30	312.07

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell, snapping a four-day rise, as some banks sold dollars for forward delivery, likely on behalf of exporters, noting the rupee's sharp fall to a record low, dealers said. The rupee fell to a record low of 95.9600 a dollar in the spot market, just shy of the psychologically-crucial 96.00 level.

 

Some dealers speculated the Reserve Bank of India may have also sold dollars for long-term forward delivery to offset the liquidity impact of its intervention through dollar sales in the spot market. The RBI has been seen intervening in the spot market recently to prevent the rupee from going beyond the 96-per-dollar mark, dealers said.

 

However, the fall in premium was limited as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who fear the rupee may weaken further. The rupee has weakened almost 1% against the dollar so far this month. 

 

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.20% at 1440 IST, down from Wednesday's close of 3.24%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 307.10 paise, against 312.07 paise Wednesday.  (Suryash Kumar)

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India Rupee: Pares losses on news govt may cut tax to attract dollar inflows

 

	AT 1312 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7200	95.7300	95.5950	95.9600	95.7050

 

MUMBAI – The rupee recovered most of its losses against the dollar Thursday after news emerged that India was considering reducing tax paid by foreign investors on bonds. The finance ministry is evaluating the Reserve Bank of India's proposal to attract foreign inflows, Bloomberg reported, citing sources.

 

The RBI has recommended this step as it looks to shore up the rupee, which has been on a downward trend against the dollar over the last five days. The rupee hit a record low of 95.9600 a dollar on Thursday earlier in the day.

 

However, even if this step is implemented, the depreciating trend of the rupee is likely to continue. "It's just a stop-gap measure. No one can prevent rupee depreciation for long," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.

 

Further, high crude oil prices and persistent buying of dollars by banks on behalf of importers continued to put downward pressure on the rupee, limiting any gain. The crude oil prices for delivery in July traded at $105.57 per barrel at 1238 IST against $105.63 a barrel Wednesday and $107.77 Tuesday.

 

"Buyers are everywhere and at all levels and sellers are nowhere to be seen," a dealer at a foreign bank said. However, some dealers speculated that the public sector banks were selling dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India to prevent the rupee from falling beyond the 96 a dollar mark. "The Reserve Bank of India is selling dollars to support the rupee at 95.95 mark," the dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 95.40-95.98. Dealers see strong technical support for the rupee at 95.98 a dollar.  (Suryash Kumar)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - May 14

 

MUMBAI – At 1114 IST, the rupee was at a record low of 95.8950 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.7300 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.7050. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerage

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private-sector bank	-	95.90	95.40	-
Private-sector bank	95.98	95.90	95.60	95.50
Private-sector bank	96.30	96.00	95.25	94.80
Brokerage firm	-	96.00	94.80	94.35

 

(Suryash Kumar)

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India Rupee: Hits record low as crude, dlr index rise; RBI support expected

 

	AT 0951 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.8250	95.7300	95.6800	95.8525	95.7050

 

MUMBAI – The rupee continued its losing streak and hit a record low against the dollar as Brent crude oil price and the dollar index inched up amid the uncertainty related to the peace talks between the US and Iran, dealers said. The rupee hit a record low of 95.8525 a dollar, shortly after the spot market opened on Thursday.

 

"The weakening in the rupee will be there as crude oil prices are high. The measures by the government to support the rupee will also have limited impact on the rupee in the long term," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. Dealers said the government's decision to hike import duty on gold and silver is likely to provide little-to-no comfort to the Indian unit. The government has imposed a 10?sic customs duty and a 5% agriculture infrastructure and development cess on gold and silver imports, taking the effective import tax to 15% from 6%.

 

Brent crude oil futures for July delivery were at $106.06 a barrel at 1000 IST, a tad up from $105.63 a barrel Wednesday but down from $107.77 a barrel Tuesday.

 

Most dealers expect the rupee to fall past the psychologically-crucial 96-a-dollar mark sooon if some positive news around the West Asia war doesn't emerge. However, some dealers expect public-sector banks to sell dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India to prevent the rupee from breaching the 96.00 mark.

 

"There is a good chance of the RBI intervening to prevent the rupee from touching 96 mark," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "We can expect some intervention by the RBI to stop rupee from crossing 96, but it won't be of much help unless other factors like crude change," another dealer at a private-sector bank said.

 

Market participants now await updates on a ‌high-stakes summit in Beijing Thursday to Friday between US President Donald Trump and China's Xi Jinping. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 95.50-96.00. They see strong technical support for the rupee at 96.00 a dollar.  (Suryash Kumar)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - May 14

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	95.90	95.50
Public-sector bank	96.00	95.40
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.25
Foreign bank	95.85	95.25
Brokerage firm	95.75	95.25
Brokerage firm	95.85	95.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as dlr index up amid stalled US-Iran talks

 

Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar as the dollar index strengthened on safe-haven demand amid US-Iran negotiations running into a stalemate. The dollar was also supported by increasing bets that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady for longer or even hike them later in the year, after data showed higher-than-expected US inflation in April. 

 

At 0830 IST, the dollar index was at 98.49 against 98.45 Wednesday and 98.29 Tuesday. The South Korean won weakened 0.2% against the dollar.

 

The Indonesian rupiah fell against the dollar, down 0.2%, even after the country's Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa outlined the government's plan to support the currency, which has fallen to a record low against the dollar. The government plans to support rupiah stabilisation through the bond market, local media reported. Bank Indonesia Senior Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti said in a statement Tuesday that the central bank will deploy "smart intervention" in the foreign exchange market to support the rupiah.  

 

The Malaysian ringgit was up 0.1% against the dollar. Malaysia's status as an oil producer and net gas exporter, and macro fundamentals, including stable growth, an anchored trade surplus, and steady foreign bond holdings, are supporting the currency against the dollar.

 

The Philippine peso continues to weaken against the dollar as high crude oil prices put pressure on the energy-import-dependent economy. The peso was down 0.1% against the dollar, while the Thai Baht was steady against the dollar.

 

The Taiwanese dollar was up 0.1% against the US dollar, while the Chinese Yuan was marginally higher against the US dollar ahead of the crucial meeting of the US and Chinese presidents later Thursday.  (Suryash Kumar) 

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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