Informist Poll
Apr WPI inflation seen at 41-mo high on high energy prices
This story was originally published at 18:34 IST on 13 May 2026
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By Shweta
NEW DELHI – India's WPI inflation is seen rising to a 41-month high in April, mainly because of a jump in energy prices in the wake of the US-Iran war. According to an Informist poll of 11 economists, WPI inflation is expected to have risen to 5.5% in April from 3.88% in March. In April 2025, WPI inflation was 0.85%.
Estimates for the WPI inflation range from 4.4% to 7.9%. The commerce ministry will release WPI data for April at 1200 IST Thursday.
"Inflation probably surged in April...on the back of a broad-based acceleration in the three major components, though all linked to fast-rising global energy prices," Pantheon Marcoeconomics said in a note. "The biggest driver should be racing fuel & power inflation, which will probably leap to double digits, with primary articles the next largest driver."
Economists expect WPI fuel and power inflation to have risen to around 4-6% in April, which would be the highest in three years, reflecting an increase in commercial cooking gas and jet fuel prices. Fuel and power inflation was 1.05% in March.
Union Bank of India sees WPI food inflation rising to 1.96% in April from 1.85% in March. According to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, wholesale prices of some edible oils rose up to 3% month-on-month in April.
The war in West Asia, which started on Feb. 28, has impacted the global energy supply chain and resulted in higher fuel and energy prices. While the government has so far shielded consumers from the direct impact of higher energy prices, industry and businesses have faced the impact of the war because of a rise in commercial cooking gas prices and industrial fuel.
Core WPI inflation, which excludes food and fuel items, is expected to have risen to 3.9% in April from 3.7% in March, according to the poll. Core WPI inflation is "led by higher commodity prices across metals, chemicals, textiles and crude linked products," economists at Nirmal Bang Equities said in a note.
"The continued divergence between relatively moderate CPI inflation and firming WPI suggests building pipeline inflationary pressures that could gradually transmit into retail prices with a lag," Union Bank of India said in a report. CPI inflation rose to a 13-month high of 3.48% in April due to higher food inflation and restaurant services inflation.
Union Bank of India expects WPI inflation projection to rise to above 7% in FY27 from 0.7% in FY26, assuming average crude oil prices of around $90 per barrel. "Any further increase in crude prices could impart additional upside risks to inflation," economists at the bank said.
The following is a summary of the poll by Informist on WPI inflation in April, in ascending order:
| Organisation | WPI Inflation |
| STCI Primary Dealer | 4.4% |
| Standard Chartered Bank | 5% |
| Nirmal Bang Equities | 5.34% |
| India Ratings and Research | 5.5% |
| Capital Economics | 5.5% |
| Union Bank of India | 5.50% |
| Bank of Baroda | 5.6% |
| ICICI Securities Primary Dealership | 6% |
| State Bank of India | 6.10% |
| Sunidhi Securities & Finance | 6.38% |
| Pantheon Marcoeconomics | 7.9% |
End
US$1 = INR 95.71
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Avishek Dutta
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