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Informist, Wednesday, May 13, 2026

By Arundathi A R

MUMBAI – After snapping four days of losses on Wednesday, headline indices are expected to be range-bound Thursday. Developments related to a US-Iran peace deal and crude oil prices will be the major factors that could dictate the market's direction ahead. The US-China summit will be in the spotlight, as it could give better clarity regarding the peace deal. JSW Steel, which will announce its March quarter results on Thursday, will also be watched.

US President Donald Trump travelled to Beijing Tuesday to meet China's President Xi Jinping. "Trump said he would have a long talk about Iran with the Chinese leader but that trade would be the main focus," Al Jazeera reported. According to Tehran's foreign ministry spokesman, the US-Israel war on Iran is one between "a proud people" and "professional liars who fabricated justifications for atrocity", according to the report.

At 1625 IST, Brent crude oil July futures contract was marginally higher at $107.92 a barrel. The $120–$125 a barrel level can be seen as the re-escalation trigger, according to Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research at Ventura Securities. "Any strike on Gulf infrastructure gets you there ($120-$125 per barrel) within sessions," he said. Bolinjkar expects crude oil prices to reach $135–$145 per barrel levels in case of an extended Hormuz closure till the December quarter.

Global brokerage Morgan Stanley sees Indian equities as poised for a strong year ahead, driven by likely growth acceleration in pipeline and valuations. It also expects earnings growth to accelerate further, as it turned after a six-quarter mid-cycle slowdown, according to the brokerage report.

"The lack of a direct AI (artificial intelligence) play seems to be the most persistent challenge to the equity market, with potential AI disruption for Indian services exports aggravating matters," the brokerage said in the report. It expects the share of manufacturing in GDP to rise in the coming decade.

On Wednesday, the Nifty 50 settled 0.1% higher at 23412.60, up over 33 points, and the BSE Sensex also ended 0.1% higher at 74608.98, up nearly 50 points. The Nifty 50 is expected to face resistance at 23500–23800 levels and find support at 23150–23000 levels, Sundar Kewat, technical and derivatives analyst at Ashika Group, said.

"However, prolonged Middle East tensions and elevated commodity prices could restrict the RBI's (Reserve Bank of India) policy flexibility if inflationary pressures persist," Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, said in a note. In a bid to dissuade people from buying gold and curb imports of precious metals, the government on Tuesday increased duties on gold and silver to 15% from 6%. Customs duties on gold and silver imports were increased to 10%, while the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess was increased to 5%.

"The increase in India's gold import duty from 6% to 15% will tighten domestic supply and push retail prices higher, likely softening discretionary demand in the near term," said Rajeev Sharan, head of research at Brickwork Ratings, in a note. "Over time, higher duties may ease pressure on the rupee, but policymakers will need to balance reserve protection against the risk of weaker consumption and increased domestic price volatility," he said. On Wednesday, the rupee again settled at a record closing low against the dollar, at 95.7050.

Foreign institutional investors were net sellers on Tuesday as well, and sold shares worth INR 19.59 billion. Domestic investors continued supporting the equity market and bought shares worth INR 79.90 billion. "Sustained FII outflows are likely to cap directional upside, even as the final leg of the Q4FY26 (March quarter) earnings season and selective policy tailwinds provide stock- and sector-specific support," Siddhartha Khemka, head of research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said in a note.

JSW Steel is expected to report a sharp increase on year in its consolidated bottom line for Jan-Mar on higher realisations. The company is expected to post a consolidated net profit of INR 25.89 billion, up over 67% on year. Its top line is seen at INR 501 billion, up nearly 12% on year.  End

US$1 = INR 95.7050

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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