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Informist, Wednesday, May 13, 2026

By Anand JC

MUMBAI – Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd. is expected to report its first profit in the last three quarters for the March quarter, adjusted for one-time gains, as its luxury car arm Jaguar Land Rover recovers gradually from a crippling cyber attack in late 2025, according to analysts' projections. Strength in its India business is expected to slightly offset the weakness in JLR for the reporting quarter.

Tata Motors PV is expected to report a consolidated net profit of INR 40.67 billion for the March quarter, down almost 44% on year, according to the average of nine estimates. The highest estimate for the Sierra maker's net profit is INR 65.53 billion from Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest is INR 10.17 billion from YES Securities (India) Ltd.

To enable a like-to-like comparison, the net profit and revenue of Tata Motors PV for the year-ago quarter was calculated by adding the figures of Jaguar Land Rover and Tata Passenger Vehicles. Tata Motors PV demerged from Tata Motors last year and started releasing its earnings separately from the September quarter.

The Tata group company's consolidated top line for the March quarter is expected to rise 13% on year to over INR 1.11 trillion, according to the average of estimates from nine brokerages. On a sequential basis, the company's revenue is expected to rise 58%. The highest estimate for the company's March quarter revenue is INR 1.13 trillion by Batlivala & Karani Securities and the lowest is INR 1.09 trillion by YES Securities.

The company will detail its earnings for Jan-Mar on Thursday.

Earnings from the UK-based luxury car arm account for a little over 75% of Tata Motors PV's overall top line. In September, JLR was hit by a massive cyber attack in what culminated in the most financially damaging cyber event in the history of the UK, as per BBC. The incident forced the carmaker to shut down its tech systems and halt global production over five weeks, affecting plants in the UK, Slovakia, India, and Brazil.

A difficult 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) for Tata Motors PV is perfectly captured in the company's outlook provided in the December quarter analyst call: "Obviously it has been a very challenging last couple of quarters for the Group on the back of the U.S.tariff in Q1, followed by the cyber incident. H1, was also pretty weak for the domestic business when there was a demand slowdown."

The company had guided for normalising of production of JLR cars, yet it remains much below year-ago levels as the company struggles with demand in other key markets such as China. JLR sold 95,300 cars in the March quarter, up 61% on quarter but still down almost 15% on year, according to ICICI Securities. The revenue from the JLR business, in rupee terms, is expected to be higher because of a rapid depreciation of the rupee against the greenback.

Back home, after a lull in Apr-Sept, it was a healthy two quarters for Tata Motors PV's India business. The company sold 201,368 Tata Motors-branded passenger vehicles in the March quarter, up 37% on year and 18% on quarter, as it benefited from the cut in Goods and Services Tax. The revenues from its domestic business account for just over 20% of the company's consolidated top line. Pipping Hyundai Motor India Ltd. to become India's third-best selling car brand in FY26 was its crowning achievement, as it also managed to retain the top spot on electric car sales.

Tata Motors PV is expected to report consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of INR 97.63 billion, according to the average of seven estimates. The projections for Tata Motors PV's EBITDA range very widely, with the lowest estimate being INR 51.56 billion by YES Securities and the highest forecast being INR 129.55 billion by Nomura.

The EBITDA of Tata Motors PV's India business is expected to grow 38% on year 13.67 billion on a favourable base and that of JLR is expected to decline 27% to 859 pound sterling due to negative operating leverage, higher tariffs and elevated variable marketing expenditure, Kotak Securities said.

On Tuesday, shares of the company closed at INR 335 on the National Stock Exchange, down 0.6% from the previous session. The shares are down roughly 5% since the company announced its December quarter earnings on Feb. 5.

Of the nine research reports on the company available with Informist, four have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock for an average target price of INR 433. Three brokerages have a 'sell' or equivalent recommendation while the remaining two have a 'hold' or equivalent recommendation on the scrip.

Following are the consolidated Jan-Mar earnings estimates for Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd. from nine brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit:
 

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Edited by Avishek Dutta

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