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Informist, Wednesday, May 13, 2026

By Astha Oriel

NEW DELHI – JSW Steel Ltd. is likely to report a sharp increase year on year in its consolidated net profit for the March quarter on higher realisations, according to brokerages tracking the company. The company's top line is likely to see moderate year-on-year growth due to an increase in volumes but will be weighed down by the shutting of a blast furnace at its Vijayanagar plant in Karnataka.

The country's largest steel producer is expected to report a consolidated net profit of INR 25.89 billion, up more than 67% on year but down nearly 3% sequentially, according to an average of estimates from 14 brokerages. Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd. has the highest estimate for net profit at INR 34.28 billion, whereas JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. has the lowest estimate at INR 14.25 billion. Despite the sharp rise, this is likely to be the slowest year-on-year increase in the company's net profit, as per analysts' consensus.

The net sales of the Mumbai–headquartered company for the March quarter are expected to be INR 501 billion, up nearly 12% on year and nearly 9% on quarter, according to the average of estimates. Kotak Securities Ltd. has the highest estimate for JSW Steel's net sales at INR 568.01 billion, whereas the lowest estimate is INR 475.70 billion from Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. This is likely to be the third consecutive quarter of an increase in the steel producer's net sales.

Seven brokerages have estimated the company's net sales volume in the March quarter between 7.4 million tonnes and 7.9 million tonnes. In the year-ago quarter, the company's sales volume was 7.5 million tonnes. "Consolidated volumes to increase 4% y-y (year on year) to 7.8 million tonnes largely on account of volumes from JSW Vijayanagar Metallics Ltd.," Nomura Equity Research said in its earnings preview note.

Six brokerages have estimated the company's net sales realisation per tonne between INR 61,171 and INR 65,531. "Volume momentum remains strong, supported by stable demand conditions. Sharp QoQ (quarter-on-quarter) spread expansion led by stronger realisations, despite flattish volumes assumption," YES Securities Ltd. said in an earnings preview report. Kotak Securities said the increase in realisations was on account of an increase in steel prices in the March quarter.

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected to be INR 83.20 billion, up more than 30% on year, according to an average of estimates from 12 broking firms. Kotak Securities has the highest estimate for EBITDA at INR 93.67 billion. The lowest estimate is INR 69.31 billion from JM Financial. The steel producer's EBITDA per tonne is expected to be between INR 9,506 and INR 11,040, according to estimates from seven brokerages.

The company's EBITDA margin is expected to improve to 16.4-17.3% in the March quarter from 14% in the year-ago quarter, according to six brokerages tracking the company. Systematix said the margin expansion is likely to have been supported by a superior sales mix, cost control measures, operational efficiency, steady growth in volumes, and higher hot-rolled coil prices.

For the financial year 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), the company is expected to report a net profit of INR 94.67 billion, up 137%, according to an average of estimates from three brokerages. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. has the lowest estimate of net profit at INR 84.50 billion while the highest estimate is INR 109.60 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.

The company's net sales for the year are likely to be INR 1.85 trillion, up more than 9%, according to the average of estimates. Prabhudas Lilladher has the highest estimate for net sales at INR 1.86 trillion, whereas the lowest is INR 1.84 trillion by Emkay Global Financial Services.

The company's FY26 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected to be INR 304.09 billion, according to the average of estimates. Prabhudas Lilladher has the highest EBITDA estimate of INR 309.40 billion, whereas the lowest is INR 296.08 billion from Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.

The company will announce its March quarter earnings Thursday. Analysts will focus oon the management's commentary on the sustainability of recent price hikes and the ability to maintain spreads amid increased coking coal costs.

Tuesday, JSW Steel's shares closed nearly 1% lower from Monday at INR 1,252.30 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock is up over 7% since the company reported its December quarter earnings on Jan. 23.

Of the 15 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, seven have a "buy" recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 1,345 per share. This is more than 7% higher than the current share price. Five brokerages have a "hold" recommendation with an average target price of INR 1,192 per share. The remaining three have a "sell" call on the stock with an average target price of INR 1,028 per share.

Following are the December quarter earnings estimates for JSW Steel, in INR million, from 14 brokerages in descending order of the net profit estimate:

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Edited by Rajeev Pai

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