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Informist, Tuesday, May 12, 2026

 

--IMD head: Will forecast monsoon advances at block levels this year 

--CONTEXT: IMD director general speaking at launch of weather forecast pdts 

 

NEW DELHI - The India Meteorological Department Tuesday launched a system to issue granular forecasts of the southwest monsoon's advancement over different parts of the country. This will enable better agriculture planning, water resource management, disaster preparedness, and climate resilience. The normal date of monsoon onset over mainland India is around Jun. 1, in Kerala. 

 

"Earlier, we used to say when the onset of monsoon would be over Kerala. But, we never said quantitatively that (monsoon will progress to) this particular district or block by this particular date," M. Ravichandran, earth sciences secretary, said at a press conference Tuesday. 

 

Previously, the department used to forecast the onset of monsoon over Kerala, and later track its progress across the country. However, with the launch of the new system, it can generate weekly probablistic forecasts every Wednesday and predict the progress of the monsoon up to four weeks in advance across 3,196 blocks covering parts of 15 states and one Union territory. 

 

According to IMD, block-level monsoon advances will be forecast over entire parts of Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. Meanwhile, most parts of Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, as well as parts of Bihar, Maharashtra, and Telangana will have high-granular level forecasts of monsoon progression. 

 

"Whenever we declare the onset of monsoon over Kerala, on the same day you will come to know when monsoon will arrive in Uttar Pradesh, or Madhya Pradesh, or Punjab, or Haryana, or Delhi," IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said. "We would be virtually charting out the itinerary of the monsoon," Earth Sciences Minister of State Jitendra Singh said. 

 

Meanwhile, IMD said conditions were becoming favourable for the onset of the southwest monsoon over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and adjoining areas by the end of the week. This would mark an early onset of the southwest monsoon, as the normal date for the onset over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands is around May 22. At the conference, IMD officials did not comment on the likely date of the southwest monsoon arrival over Kerala. 

 

IMD also launched a system to generate high-spatial resolution rainfall forecasts for Uttar Pradesh on a pilot basis, as the state has densely situated rain gauges and weather stations. This provides valuable observational data to monitor the rainfall and provide high-resolution rainfall forecasts. 

 

The system is designed to generate hourly rainfall forecasts for up to 10 days in advance at 1 kilometre spatial resolution for Uttar Pradesh. This next-generation artificial intelligence-enabled system will provide real-time and location-specific weather forecasts in Uttar Pradesh.

 

IMD officials expect to expand these high-resolution forecast systems to other states as well, provided states install more observational data centres.  End

 

Reported by Afra Abubacker

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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