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Informist, Tuesday, May 12, 2026

By Shakshi Jain

NEW DELHI – Telecommunications major Bharti Airtel Ltd.'s bottom line growth for the March quarter is likely to exceed that of the top line, driven by a healthy expansion in subscriber base and network cost optimisation, according to analysts. The sequential growth in revenue was likely restricted due to two lesser days in the quarter, brokerages said.

If analysts' consensus estimates hold, both the bottom line and the top line of the company would return to sequential growth after two consecutive quarters of decline.

Bharti Airtel's consolidated net profit for the March quarter is estimated at INR 74.29 billion, according to the average of estimates from eight brokerages. This implies a sequential growth of almost 8% and a year-on-year improvement of nearly 42%, excluding exceptional items. Including the one-time cost of INR 2.57 billion reported for the December quarter on account of the new labour codes, the Nifty 50 company's bottom line is seen rising around 12% sequentially. 

The bottom line estimates for the March quarter range from a high of INR 82.24 billion by Centrum Broking Ltd. to a low of INR 68.02 billion by Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt. Ltd.

The company's consolidated revenue for the reporting quarter is likely to rise 2.4% sequentially and more than 10% on year to INR 552.90 billion, as per the average of estimates. The highest estimate is INR 563.42 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. and the lowest is INR 541.16 billion by Batlivala & Karani Securities.

For the December quarter, the company had reported a consolidated net profit of INR 66.31 billion on revenue of INR 539.82 billion. In the absence of the one-time cost reported for the quarter, the company's bottom line would have been about INR 68.87 billion, not accounting for the change in tax. In the year-ago quarter, the company's adjusted net profit was 52.49 billion on a consolidated basis and the revenue totalled INR 478.76 billion.

GROWTH LEVERS

Revenue growth for the March quarter was likely driven by the homes services business, passive infrastructure, and Africa operations, brokerages said. The India mobile services segment is expected to have seen a modest sequential improvement during the quarter, they added. 

Nuvama estimates a 7.1% sequential growth in revenues from the Africa business and a 2.1% rise in contribution from the India mobile services segment for the reporting quarter. In dollar terms, ICICI Securites expects the company's Africa business revenue to grow 2.5% sequentially to $1.7 billion.

In the December quarter, revenue from the India mobile services segment stood at INR 286.52 billion and that from the Africa mobile services segment was INR 150.10 billion. The passive infrastructure business of the company contributed INR 81.80 billion in revenue for Oct-Dec.

Kotak Securities Ltd. estimates Bharti Airtel likely net added 950,000 broadband subscribers in Jan-Mar. ICICI Securities said the company's net 4G/5G subscriber addition could remain stable at 5 million for the reporting quarter. Bharti Airtel net added over 14 million mobile users during the March quarter, according to data from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, which includes figures for machine-to-machine cellular mobile connections.

The company's average revenue per user is expected to remain unchanged or decline marginally on a sequential basis for the March quarter, according to most brokerages. The impact of two lesser days in the quarter was likely offset by the shift of customers to higher-generation networks, they reasoned. JM Financial pegged the ARPU for Jan-Mar at INR 259, ICICI Securities at INR 256, and Kotak Securities at INR 255. In the December quarter, Bharti Airtel's ARPU stood at INR 259.

Centrum Broking, on the other hand, said the ARPU could grow 1% sequentially for Jan-Mar, led by premiumisation and growth in the postpaid customer base.

The telecom giant is expected to report INR 317.19 billion in consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for Jan-Mar, as per the average of estimates from seven brokerages. The highest EBITDA estimate is INR 324.32 billion from JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest is INR 310.65 billion from Kotak Securities. In the December quarter, the company's EBITDA added up to INR 311.44 billion.

Bharti Airtel will announce its March quarter results on Wednesday. At 1321 IST, shares of Bharti Airtel traded flat at INR 1,761.50 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock is down almost 12% since the company reported its results for the December quarter.

Of the 10 research recommendations on Bharti Airtel available with Informist, nine have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock and one has a 'sell' call. The average target price of the 'buy' recommendations is INR 2,380. This is over 35% higher than the current market price.

Following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates for Bharti Airtel from eight brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

End

US$1 = INR 95.73

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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