More Stories

Informist, Thursday, May 7, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar for the second consecutive day as renewed hopes for a peace deal between the US and Iran drove Brent crude oil price below the key $100 per barrel mark, dealers said. Persistent dollar sales by traders to cut long dollar positions also boosted the Indian unit, they said.  

 

The rupee settled at 94.2500 a dollar Thursday, its highest level since Apr. 27 and 0.4% higher from its previous close. Other Asian currencies gained 0.2-1.5% against the dollar, with the Philippine peso being the best performer. 

 

"Risk scenario has improved quite a lot in the last two days, and that is what has contributed to the market moving so much," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "People had considerable long (dollar) positions, all of that are getting unwound now." 

 

Brent crude oil price fell below $100 per barrel after media reports said the US and Iran were close to reaching an agreement to end the war in West Asia, dealers said. Citing sources, the news agency Al-Arabiya reported that agreements between the two countries had been reached to ease the blockade in exchange for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that the US and Iran are edging towards a limited, temporary agreement to halt their war, with a draft framework that would stop the fighting but leave the most contentious issues unresolved.

 

Iran had said on Wednesday that it was reviewing a US peace proposal that would reportedly formally end the war while leaving unresolved the key US demands that Iran suspend its nuclear programme and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 

 

"Market sentiment has turned positive as there are no negative developments at least on the war front and the fall in crude has also sustained," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. Brent crude oil futures for July delivery were at $98.96 a barrel at 1530 IST, down from $101.27 a barrel Wednesday and $109.87 a barrel Tuesday.  

 

Noting the sharp rise in the rupee, banks stepped up dollar sales to cut their long dollar positions, triggering stop-losses on long dollar bets at multiple dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. The rupee hit a high of 94.0500 a dollar following this. "It was quite a day. After 94.50 broke, there was long cutting all across," a dealer at another state-owned bank said. "Rupee moved 20-30 paise higher within minutes."

 

However, gains for the Indian unit were limited as some banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of importers seeking to make the most of the rupee's appreciation, dealers said. 

 

The dollar index fell as investors' risk appetite improved on hopes of a resolution to the war, denting the currency's safe-haven appeal. This also supported the rupee, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 97.83, lower than 98.02 Wednesday and 98.49 Tuesday. The index hit a low of 97.63 Wednesday. 

 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.2500	94.7350	94.0500	94.9025	94.6100
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	284.00	300.333	291.96	281.13	290.66

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended lower as the sharp appreciation of the rupee in the spot market led traders to unwind long dollar positions, dealers said. 

 

The direction of the dollar-rupee pair in the spot market has largely influenced the forward market since Wednesday, dealers said. "All the sell-buy positions done between forwards and futures are being unwound now," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.01% at 1530 IST, down from Wednesday's close of 3.05%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 284.00 paise, against 290.66 paise Wednesday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Friday, the rupee will continue to take cues from crude oil price movements amid evolving developments related to the war in West Asia and the peace agreement between the US and Iran, dealers said. If crude prices fall further below $95 a barrel, market participants expect the rupee to rise above 94.00.  

 

The local unit will also take cues from movements in the dollar index, they said. Market participants, however, expect importers to continue buying dollars, fearing rupee depreciation amid uncertainty over the situation in West Asia, which may weigh on the Indian currency. However, if the rupee continues to appreciate, dealers expect exporters to step in to sell dollars, fearing a further rise. 

 

"The rupee's range has shifted definitely and it can move further if crude continues to fall," a dealer at another state-owned bank said. "But if anything  untoward happens on the war front, we can still go back below 95.00."

 

Dealers now see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 94.00 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.00-94.50 against the dollar Friday. 

---

India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index falls as Strait of Hormuz may reopen

 

	AT 1529 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3618	1.3624	1.3590	1.3589
EUR/USD	1.1769	1.1778	1.1745	1.1750
NZD/USD	0.5975	0.5980	0.5951	0.5950
AUD/USD	0.7256	0.7264	0.7232	0.7239
USD/JPY	156.3760	156.5260	156.0210	156.2530
USD/CAD	1.3625	1.3643	1.3621	1.3628
EUR/JPY	184.0430	184.1400	183.5030	183.5900
CHF/USD	1.2860	1.2868	1.2831	1.2839
EUR/CHF	0.9151	0.9160	0.9146	0.9147

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index fell Thursday, as investors' hopes of the Strait of Hormuz reopening rose, with Al Arabiya reporting that talks to gradually reopen the strait were underway, and a breakthrough could be on the horizon. The dollar index was at 97.89, against 98.02 Wednesday and 98.49 Tuesday. The index was down 0.1% from the previous day's close.

 

However, individually, the six currencies in the basket fell, although each less than 0.2%, against the dollar as local factors surrounding the currency dominated the foreign exchange market related to these currencies. The British pound was down 0.2% against the dollar as volatility in energy prices and concerns surrounding local elections later this week weighed on the currency.

 

The yen was down 0.2% against the dollar even after intervention by Japan's central bank. The weakness stems from the risk of the carry trade playing out against the yen where investors borrow in yen and reinvest it in a higher interest-rate country, mostly the US, to benefit from the interest rate differential.

 

The euro was down 0.2% against the dollar. However, if the US and Iran agree to a peace deal, the currency is likely to gain against the greenback. The Swiss franc and Canadian dollar were down 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, against the dollar Thursday. (Suryash Kumar)

---

India Rupee: Premium falls as traders unwind long dlr bets on rupee's surge

 

	AT 1419 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.1425	94.7350	94.0500	94.9025	94.6100
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	281.31	300.333	291.96	281.13	290.66

 

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell as a sharp appreciation of the rupee in the spot market led to traders unwinding long dollar positions as they expect the rupee to appreciate further, dealers said. "The importers who expected the rupee to depreciate have unwound their positions as the rupee has appreciated in the spot," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

"The spot and forward markets are linked by a thread,"  the dealer said. "If one moves up, the other also goes up, and if one goes down, the other also goes down." The direction of the dollar-rupee pair in the spot market has largely influenced the direction of the forward market since Wednesday, dealers said.

 

The rupee appreciated 0.4% against the dollar Thursday as crude oil prices fell below $100 per barrel on growing hopes of a peace deal between the US and Iran, dealers said. The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.98% at 1419 IST, down from Wednesday's close of 3.05%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 281.31 paise, against 290.66 paise Wednesday.  (Suryash Kumar)

---

India Rupee: Surges as crude below $100/bbl on reports of US-Iran peace deal

 

	AT 1320 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.3225	94.7350	94.2100	94.8275	94.6100

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee surged against the dollar after erasing all earlier losses, as Brent crude oil price fell below the key $100-per-barrel mark after several media reports said the US and Iran were closing in on an agreement to end the war in West Asia, dealers said.

 

The peace agreement is likely to kick off discussions to unblock shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, lift US sanctions on Tehran, and set curbs on Iran's nuclear programme, reports said. Citing sources, news agency Al-Arabiya reported that agreements between both the countries had been reached on easing the blockade in exchange for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. 

 

"There are multiple news reports floating on the war. Nobody knows what is concrete and what is not, so the trade is just happening on everything now," a dealer at a private sector bank said. Brent crude oil futures for July delivery were at $99.14 a barrel at 1320 IST, down from $101.27 a barrel Wednesday and $109.87 a barrel Tuesday.  

 

Noting the sharp rise of the rupee, banks stepped up dollar sales to cut long dollar positions, which triggered stop-losses on long dollar bets at multiple dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. The rupee hit a high of 94.2100 a dollar, 0.4% higher than its previous close. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 94.00-94.50. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 94.00 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - May 7

 

MUMBAI  – At 1138 IST, the rupee was at 94.8800 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 94.7350 a dollar, against the previous close of 94.6100. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private bank	95.05	94.95	94.70	94.65
Private bank	95.00	94.90	94.50	94.40
Private bank	95.50	95.20	94.10	93.50
Brokerage firm	95.20	95.00	94.40	94.10

 

(Suryash Kumar)

---

India Rupee: Falls as oil prices up on uncertainty over US-Iran peace deal

 

	AT 0950 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.8150	94.7350	94.7000	94.8275	94.6100

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply against the dollar Thursday due to lingering ambiguity over the peace deal between the US and Iran and an uptick in crude oil prices, dealers said. US President Donald Trump Wednesday said that talks with Iran were progressing well, but if Iran didn't agree to a peace deal, the US will start bombing Iran again. This cast a shadow over the optimism among investors, who were hoping for a lasting peace settlement between the warring nations quickly.

 

Crude oil prices also rose over 1% in early trade, rebounding from the previous day's sharp losses, weighing on the rupee, dealers said. Prices were up almost 6% from Wednesday's two-week low of $96.75.

 

"The crude price rose a bit today (Thursday) and was above the $100 per barrel mark, which weighed on the currency. Also, there's no clarity over the US-Iran peace deal," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. Iran is reviewing a peace proposal sent by the US even as Tehran's nuclear programme remains a sticking point between the countries, reports said. 

 

Further, some banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, who fear further fall of the rupee and looked to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said, which further weighed on the Indian unit. The rupee posted its biggest single day gain in almost five-weeks Wednesday as crude oil prices fell sharply. The rupee closed at 94.6100 a dollar on Wednesday, almost 0.7% higher than its previous close. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 94.50-95.00. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.00 a dollar.  (Suryash Kumar)

---

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - May 7

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	94.90	94.30
Private-sector bank	94.65	94.25
Private-sector bank	94.80	94.40
Foreign bank	95.00	94.20
Brokerage firm	94.99	94.08
Brokerage firm	94.75	94.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Compiled by Pratiksha

---

India Rupee – Asia FX: Most up amid growing optimism over US-Iran peace deal

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies were higher against the dollar Thursday on growing optimism that the US and Iran were close to reaching agreement on a peace deal. US President Donald Trump Wednesday said that Washington had "very good talks" with Tehran in the last 24 hours, adding, "We're in good shape, and now we're doing well, and we have to get what we have to get." However, the optimism was measured as Trump also threatened to start bombing Iran again if it doesn't agree to a deal.

 

The Philippine peso gained 0.1% against the dollar on Thursday. The Malaysian ringgit continued its gaining momentum from Wednesday and rose 0.4% against the dollar ahead of the central bank's monetary policy decision later in the day. Bank Negara Malaysia is widely expected to hold the overnight policy rate at 2.75%.

 

The Indonesian rupiah was 0.1% higher against the dollar after Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo Wednesday said the central bank was likely to further tighten its rules around the limits for purchasing US dollars after the local currency hit a record low against the dollar earlier this week. Warjiyo said the central bank plans to bring down the maximum monthly dollar purchase limit to $25,000 per person in the domestic market. This will be lower than $50,000 limit introduced by the bank earlier this year. The Chinese yuan was also up 0.1% against the dollar. 

 

Bukcing the trend, The South Korean Won was marginally down in early trading hours. South Korea's foreign exchange reserves increased $4.22 billion from a month earlier to $427.88 billion at the end of April, according to local media reports. Taiwanese dollar and Thai Baht were both down 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively, against the dollar.  (Suryash Kumar) 

 

End

 

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (11) 4220-1000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.