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Informist, Monday, May 4, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee settled below the psychologically crucial 95-per-dollar mark for the first time and ended at a record closing low against the dollar as oil importers and foreign portfolio investors continuously bought dollars, dealers said. A rise in crude oil prices during the second half also weighed on the Indian unit, they said. 

 

The Indian unit fell for the fourth consecutive trading day and settled at 95.0875 a dollar Monday, 0.2% lower than its previous close of 94.9100. The Indian currency traded in a range of 27 paise during the day. 

 

"Rupee weakened further, slipping below 95.05, as sustained FII outflows and crude prices above $100 continued to pressure the currency," Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst - commodity and currency at LKP Securities, said in a note. "Elevated oil prices are increasing India's import bill and keeping inflation concerns high, limiting any recovery in the rupee." 

 

The rupee found some support from a fall in crude oil prices in early trade and rose to a high of 94.8150 a dollar, dealers said. Crude oil prices eased and came off the four-year high hit Thursday after US President Donald Trump said the US would begin an ‌effort to free up ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. 

 

Further, the dollar index declined tracking gains in the Japanese yen following likely intervention by the Bank of Japan to strengthen the currency, supporting the rupee, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 98.24, against 98.21 on Friday. The index hit a low of 97.97 during the day. 

 

However, gains for the Indian unit were short-lived as banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. Amid the looming uncertainty related to the war in West Asia, dealers expect the rupee to depreciate further going ahead. 

 

"The rupee was a bit rangebound because were were seeing supply-demand from both sides," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Importers are there at all dips (in dollar-rupee) obviously."

 

Banks also bought dollars on behalf of FPIs, looking to exit Indian markets, dealers said. FPIs withdrew nearly $5.23 billion worth of funds from Indian markets last month. Dollar demand from banks related to maturity of non-deliverable forwards contracts also weighed on the local currency, dealers said.

 

However, some banks sold dollars on behalf of exporters, noting the rupee's fall below the 95.00 mark, which provided some cushion to the local unit, dealers said. Some dealers also speculated that the Reserve Bank of India might have sold dollars in the spot market to prevent a sharp depreciation of the rupee. 

 

Meanwhile, crude oil prices rose during the second half of the day after Iran's Fars news agency reported an incident with a US warship in the Strait of Hormuz, sparking concerns about prolonged disruption in the route. This also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. Brent crude oil futures for July delivery were at $109.10 a barrel at 1530 IST, against $108.17 a barrel Friday and $114.01 a barrel Thursday. 

 

 

A rise in domestic equities also supported the Indian currency, dealers said. On Monday, the Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 0.5% higher. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.0875	94.9500	94.8150	95.0825	94.9100
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	308.30	317.90	318.40	308.30	319.92

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell sharply Monday as banks sold forward dollars on behalf of exporters, noting the depreciation of the rupee, dealers said. "Forward points have been recieved after rupee fell to 95.00. Exporters are seeing that RBI is intervening around these levels so they are also coming," a dealer at another state-owned bank said.

 

Some dealers speculated that the RBI might have sold dollars for long-term forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions, which weighed on premium forwards. The RBI has been seen intervening in the spot market recently to curb the rupee's losses, as per dealers. 

 

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.21% at 1530 IST, sharply lower than Thursday's close of 3.37%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 305.30 paise, against 319.92 paise Thursday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Tuesday, the rupee is likely to open lower against the dollar as crude oil prices rose sharply after Tehran claimed two missiles had hit a US warship attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, dealers said. Brent crude prices rose to $114.30 a barrel post market hours. "Rupee has fallen quite a bit in offshore after onshore close. We may a gap-up opening of rupee tomorrow (Tuesday)," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The local unit will also take cues from the movement in the dollar index as the conflict in West Asia continues to evolve, dealers said. Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, fearing further rupee depreciation, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Persistent foreign portfolio outflows may also add pressure on the Indian unit. 

 

However, most dealers expect the RBI to intervene by selling dollars if the Indian unit comes under pressure. If the central bank allows the Indian unit to fall to a fresh record low, dealers expect it to quickly fall further towards 95.50. The rupee hit a record low of 95.3325 on Thursday. 

 

Dealers now see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.30 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.80-95.30 against the dollar Tuesday.

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 India Rupee - World FX: Yen up on likely BoJ intervention; dlr index steady

 

	AT 1445 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3561	1.3602	1.3559	1.3577
EUR/USD	1.1719	1.1757	1.1711	1.1726
NZD/USD	0.5901	0.5926	0.5895	0.5894
AUD/USD	0.7196	0.7222	0.7188	0.7200
USD/JPY	156.9780	157.2470	155.7040	157.0680
USD/CAD	1.3601	1.3607	1.3582	1.3595
EUR/JPY	183.9700	184.4183	182.7900	184.1599
CHF/USD	1.2777	1.2820	1.2766	1.2785
EUR/CHF	0.9171	0.9179	0.9156	0.9167

 

MUMBAI – The yen gained against the dollar, continuing its momentum from last week, due to likely intervention by the Bank of Japan to support the currency. Japan likely spent around 5.4 trillion yen or $34.5 billion last week to support the yen as the local currency slid past the 160 to a dollar mark, according to the local media reports. The yen was 0.1% up against the dollar at 1424 IST. Japan Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, speaking to reporters in Uzbekistan, said she had no comment when asked whether authorities had intervened, according to Bloomberg.

 

The US dollar index was broadly steady on Monday as investors waited to see how effective US President Donald Trump's announcement of guiding stranded ships in the Strait of Hormuz out of the narrow waterway would be. At 1415 IST, the dollar index was at 98.23 against 98.21 Friday and 98.09 Thursday. Iran has warned that any intervention in the Strait of Hormuz would be called a violation of the ceasefire.

 

The British pound sterling gained against the dollar, bolstered by the Bank of England's signal that rate hikes are likely to come in the future as rising crude oil prices fuel fears of inflation. At 1424 IST, the British pound was up 0.6% against the dollar.

 

The euro gained against the dollar, with investors closely watching the developments related to peace talks between the US and Iran. The euro was up 0.3% against the dollar at 1424 IST. Both Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar were up 0.6% against the dollar. (Suryash Kumar)

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India Rupee: Premium dn as exporters sell fwd dlrs, RBI fwd sales speculated

 

	AT 1400 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.0025	94.9500	94.8150	95.0825	94.9100
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	308.30	317.90	318.40	308.30	319.92

 

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell sharply Monday as banks sold forward dollars on behalf of exporters, noting the depreciation of the rupee, dealers said. "There has been receiving since morning and mostly it has been by the exporters," said a dealer at a state-owned bank.

 

On Monday, the rupee erased early gains and fell against the dollar to a low of 95.0825 as oil importers stepped in to buy dollars, dealers said. The Indian currency had hit a record low of 95.3325 on Thursday amid a surge in crude oil prices. 

 

Some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India might have sold dollars for long-term forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions, which weighed on premium forwards. The RBI has been seen intervening in the spot market recently to curb the rupee's losses, as per dealers. 

 

However, dealers expect the fall in premiums to be limited as importers may purchase dollars for forward delivery, fearing further depreciation of the rupee. The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.24% at 1400 IST, lower than Thursday's close of 3.37%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 308.30 paise, against 319.92 paise Thursday. (Suryash Kumar and Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee: Erases all gains as importers, FPIs buy dlrs; fall in oil helps

 

	AT 1207 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.9300	94.9500	94.8150	94.9800	94.9100

 

 

MUMBAI – The rupee shed all its early gains against the dollar Monday as banks bought dollars on behalf of oil importers and foreign investors exiting the Indian market, dealers said. "The general flow of dollars is out of the country due to demand from oil importers and foreign investors leaving the Indian market," said a dealer at a state owned bank. 

 

Earlier on Monday, the rupee touched a high of 94.8150 as crude oil prices fell after reports that the US plans to help ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz to exit the narrow waterway. Brent crude oil futures for July delivery were at $107.85 a barrel at 1230 IST, down from $108.17 a barrel Friday and $114.01 a barrel Thursday. 

 

A fall in the dollar index also supported the Indian currency, they said. At 1230 IST, the dollar index was 98.04, down marginally against 98.21 on Friday. "The movement in rupee is happening because the dollar has weakened for several reasons. Globally, the dollar is getting weak," the dealer said. 

 

FPIs withdrew nearly $5.23 billion from Indian markets last month. Growing tensions in West Asia, soaring crude prices and a hawkish outlook by the Federal Reserve have led to investors' decision of withdrawing from the Indian markets.

 

The rupee is likely to move in the range 94.80 to 95.20 for the rest of the day. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.00 a dollar. (Suryash Kumar) 

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India Rupee: Slightly up as crude, dollar fall; importers' dollar buys weigh

 

	AT 0955 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.8525	94.9500	94.8325	94.9800	94.9100

 

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose slightly against the dollar Monday due to a fall in crude oil prices from four-year highs and the dollar index, dealers said. A sharp rise in domestic equities also supported the Indian unit, they said. 

 

Crude oil prices eased after US President Donald Trump said the US would begin an ‌effort to free up ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil futures for July delivery were at $107.85 a barrel at 0955 IST, down from $108.17 a barrel Friday and $114.01 a barrel Thursday. Brent crude prices had hit a four-year high of $126.41 a barrel on Thursday. 

 

Trump also said that US officials were holding "very positive discussions" with Iran to establish peace in the Middle East region. However, a dealer at a private-sector bank said, "Trump is a flip-flop. Investors are not relying to a great extent on what Trump is saying."

 

The dollar index fell tracking gains in the Japanese yen following likely intervention by the Bank of Japan to strengthen the currency last week. At 0955 IST, the dollar index was 98.04, down marginally against 98.21 on Friday.

 

Meanwhile, banks stepped in to buy dollars, likely on behalf of importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, which limited gains for the Indian unit, dealers said. 

 

Market participants expect the Reserve Bank of India to step in through dollar sales to support the rupee, in case it heads towards sharp depreciation. "The market, including rupee and equity, is stabilising on its own. The RBI intervened at the right time last week," the dealer said.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 94.70 and 95.20 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 94.80 a dollar. (Suryash Kumar and Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - May 4

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	95.15	94.75
Private-sector bank	95.20	94.60
Private-sector bank	95.10	94.50
Foreign bank	95.30	94.50
Brokerage firm	95.05	94.75
Brokerage firm	95.20	94.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha and Suryash Kumar)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed amid Trump's plan to escort ships in Hormuz

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note against the dollar Monday as market participants assessed the recent developmennts related to the war in West Asia and peace negotiations between Iran and the US. A fall in crude oil prices from four-year peak supported the Asian units. 

 

US President Donald Trump Sunday said the US plans to help ships that are stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. The initiative is aimed at escorting ships that do not belong to warring nations to exit the Strait of Hormuz. Reports emerged that US has responded to Iran's proposal for ending the war and Tehran was reviewing US's response.

 

Trump also said that US officials were holding "very positive discussions" with Iran to establish peace in the West Asia region. "I am fully aware that my Representatives are having very positive discussions with the Country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all," Trump posted on his Truth Social.

 

However, Iran has warned that if US intervenes in the Strait of Hormuz to escort ships, it will amount to violation of the ceasefire. The Philippine peso was down 0.1% against the dollar. The baht was down 0.3% against the dollar. Meanwhile, Malaysian ringgit was up 0.4% against the dollar and the Taiwanese dollar was up 0.1%.

 

The South Korean won fell 0.1% against the dollar despite Bank of Korea's deputy governor saying forward guidance on monetary policy would become more hawkish at the next meeting later this month, as it was time to consider interest rate hikes. "Since April, the impression has been that economic growth will not be much lower than 2.0%, while inflation will be higher than 2.2%. Given that, it is time to stop rate cuts and start thinking about rate hikes," said Ryoo Sang-dai, a member of the central bank's seven-seat monetary policy board. (Suryash Kumar)  End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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