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Informist, Thursday, Apr. 30, 2026

MUMBAI – The interbank call money rate for two-day loans Saturday, is likely to open below the Reserve Bank of India's repo rate, and slightly higher than the Standing Deposit Facility rate, at 5.05-5.10%. Dealers expect the call rate to be in the 4.90-5.15% range during the day, while the tri-party repo rate is expected to be around 4.80–5.10%, due to likely low participation in the overnight market, as is usually seen on Saturdays. Comments from RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra at the Fixed Income Money Market and Derivatives Association of India annual meeting on Friday may also lend some direction, they said. 

Indian financial markets are shut Friday for Maharashtra Day and Labour Day. Government bond yields and overnight indexed swap rates are not traded on Saturdays.

GOVERNMENT BONDS

On Monday, bond prices will track developments in the West Asia war over the extended weekend and their impact on Brent crude oil prices, dealers said. Traders will also track the movement of overnight indexed swap rates and the rupee, they said.

Brent crude oil prices cooled Thursday at the close of Indian gilt market hours but still remained above the key level of $110 per barrel, which is likely to weigh on bond prices, dealers said. The yield on the 10-year benchmark is seen opening at 7.01% Mondat, they said. It is expected to rise above 7.05% if the US-Iran war escalates and crude prices shoot up to $120 per barrel over the weekend. The yield on the benchmark 10-year 6.48%, 2035 bond is seen in the 6.98-7.05% range. Thursday, the bond ended at INR 96.35, or 7.01% yield. 

OIS RATES

Over the long weekend, traders will track crude oil prices and developments in the war in West Asia, now in its third month, dealers said.

Domestically, traders also fear the Centre may raise petrol and diesel prices to help oil marketing companies, which are making losses on retail sales as crude oil prices have soared due to the war, dealers said. If pump prices increase, CPI inflation is expected to rise towards the upper end of the RBI's tolerance band of 2-6% later in 2026-27 (Apr-Mar). Swap rates have already priced in several repo rate hikes in India in both FY27 and beyond.

Traders will also track the liquidity surplus, which has reduced considerably from its high of INR 5.50 trillion seen earlier this month. Monday, the one-year swap rate is seen at 5.80-6.15% and the five-year swap at 6.30-6.70%. Thursday, the one-year swap rate ended at 6.00% and the five-year swap rate at 6.61%.

RBI AUCTION

--Nil

LIQUIDITY

Total net inflows of INR 78.10 billion. The calculation of flows does not take into account redemption of the standing deposit facility and scheduled variable rate repo and variable rate reverse repo operations.

* Inflows

--INR 51.65 billion as redemption of 364-day Treasury bills on Friday

--INR 12.37 billion as coupon on state bonds on Friday

--INR 14.07 billion as coupon on state bonds on Saturday

* Outflows

--Nil 

End

US$1 = INR 94.91 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Reported by Shumaila Firoz

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

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