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Informist, Thursday, Apr. 30, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee recovered most of its day's losses Thursday as the Reserve Bank of India's intervention ensured that the Indian unit did not settle below 95.00 per dollar, dealers said. A fall in crude oil prices from a four-year high also supported the Indian currency, they said.

 

"The RBI came in aggressively and made sure the rupee stayed below 95 (a dollar). But if the global cues are negative for next week, RBI may let the trades play out before taking any action," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

The rupee fell to a record low of 95.3325 as crude oil prices rose to a four-year high earlier in the day, with no sight to the near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, dealers said. The Indian unit settled at 94.9100 a dollar Thursday, against 94.8450 on Wednesday. 

 

The rupee started the day sharply lower against the dollar, falling below the psychologically-crucial 95.00 mark for the first time in a month, as Brent crude oil prices rose sharply. Prices touched a high of $126.41 a barrel earlier in the day after US President Donald Trump said the naval blockade on Iranian ports and coastal routes will continue until Tehran dismantles its nuclear programme.

 

However, prices fell in the second-half of the day, supporting the Indian unit, dealers said. Brent crude oil prices for June delivery were $116.67 per barrel at 1530 IST, lower than $118.03 per barrel on Wednesday. Brent crude June futures have risen 59% since the war in West Asia began on Feb 28.

 

The Reserve Bank of India marked its presence in the spot market, looking to contain the rupee's fall, dealers said. The RBI initially sold dollars intermittently in the spot market but was aggressive in the second half of the day, they said.   

 

However, the rupee remained under pressure during the day as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers and foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. Fear of further depreciation of the Indian currency due to tension in West Asia has prompted oil marketing companies and other importers to actively purchase dollars, they said. 

 

FPI outflows from Indian markets also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. "FPI outflows have been a problem for the rupee, especially since the start of the conflict in West Asia," the dealer said. FPIs have net sold securities worth $19.46 billion from Indian markets so far in 2026, much higher than the $10.92 billion worth of outflows in the whole of 2025. On Thursday, the Sensex and Nifty 50 ended 0.8% and 0.7% lower, respectively.

 

A fall in the dollar index during European trading hours also further supported the Indian unit, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was 98.49, down from 98.97 Wednesday. The index rose to a high of 99.09 earlier Thursday after the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged but adopted a more hawkish tone amid growing concerns about inflation.

 

Dealers said the rupee was also supported by dollar sales by some banks on behalf of exporters. "95 (a dollar) was a good level for exporters. They came into the market in the later part of the day when importers were done with trades," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.9100	95.0200	94.8700	95.3325	94.8450
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	319.92	310.33	323.50	309.75	308.27

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended at an over three-week high as banks bought forward dollars on behalf of importers, fearing a further fall in the local currency, dealers said. However, a rise in US Treasury yields weighed on premiums, dealers said. The US Treasury yield rose to 4.42% Wednesday from 4.36% Tuesday.  

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.37%, up from Wednesday's close of 3.25%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 319.92 paise, against 308.27 paise Wednesday. It rose to a high of 323.50 paise, or 3.40%, during the day.

 

OUTLOOK

The foreign exchange market is closed on Friday for Labour Day. On Monday, the rupee will take cues from movements in crude oil prices and the dollar index as the conflict in West Asia continues to evolve, dealers said. "Due to the uncertainty, it is difficult to say what will happen. We may expect something, but something else will happen on the war front," a dealer at a foreign bank said.  

 

The rupee could retest the 95.00-a-dollar level if crude oil prices stay around $110 per barrel, they said. "Importers and exporters will be in a wait-and-watch mode tracking developments of the war in West Asia, instead of aggressively trading," the dealer said. Continued FPI outflows may also exert downward pressure on the local unit, they said. 

 

However, most dealers expect the RBI to continue intervening by selling dollars if the Indian unit comes under pressure. If the central bank allows the Indian unit to fall to a fresh record low, dealers expect it to quickly fall further towards 95.50.

 

Dealers now see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.40 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.80-95.30 against the dollar Monday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Euro steady before ECB policy decision; sterling up

 

	AT 1521 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3504	1.3505	1.3454	1.3475
EUR/USD	1.1695	1.1698	1.1655	1.1664
NZD/USD	0.5851	0.5853	0.5821	0.5828
AUD/USD	0.7145	0.7147	0.7110	0.7114
USD/JPY	159.3390	160.7230	159.2270	160.3930
USD/CAD	1.3664	1.3689	1.3663	1.3677
EUR/JPY	186.3650	187.5657	186.0660	187.0330
CHF/USD	1.2698	1.2699	1.2621	1.2633
EUR/CHF	0.9210	0.9244	0.9209	0.9232

 

 

MUMBAI – The euro was nearly flat against the dollar Thursday ahead of the policy decision by the European Central Bank later in the day. The ECB is widely expected to hold interest rates, but it may signal an increase in the interest rate in future, given the inflationary pressure due to rising crude oil prices. 

 

Data released Thursday showed inflation in the eurozone rose to 3% on year in April from 2.6% in March, above the 2.9% level that economists in a Wall Street Journal survey had expected. However, the eurozone economy grew 0.1% in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter, below the 0.2% growth forecast. 

 

The pound sterling gained against the dollar ahead of the Bank of England's monetary policy decision later Thursday. The UK's central bank is also expected to keep interest rates on hold.

 

The dollar index fell after rising above the 99 mark earlier in the day. The index rose after the US Federal Open Market Committee Wednesday left the Fed funds rate unchanged but flagged inflationary pressure arising from the war in West Asia. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also said he expects inflation to rise in the coming months, adding a hawkish undertone to the monetary policy outlook. The dollar index was 98.82 at 1452 IST against 98.97 Wednesday and 98.60 Tuesday.

 

The Japanese yen gained against the dollar amid fears of intervention in the foreign exchange market by the Japanese authorities. The Swiss franc was down 0.3% against the dollar while the Canadian dollar was flat against the dollar.  (Suryash Kumar)

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India Rupee: 1-yr premium at over 3-week high as importers buy fwd dollars

 

	AT 1359 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.1650	95.0200	95.0200	95.3325	94.8450
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	318.33	310.33	322.333	309.7500	308.27

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose sharply to an over three-week high as the rupee's fall to a record low prompted banks to buy forward dollars on behalf of oil and other importers, expecting a further fall in the local unit, dealers said. The rupee fell sharply to a record low of 95.3325 a dollar on Thursday due to a surge in crude oil prices and strong demand for the greenback by oil importers and foreign fund outflows. 

 

However, a rise in US Treasury yields weighed on premiums, dealers said. US Treasury yields rose after the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged Wednesday but adopted a more hawkish tone amid growing inflation concerns. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.42% Wednesday from 4.36% Tuesday. 

 

At 1352 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 3.35%, up from the previous close of 3.25%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 315.54 paise against Wednesday's close of 308.27 paise.  (Suryash Kumar)

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India Rupee: Remains near lifetime low as oil surges; RBI helps pare losses

 

	AT 1220 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2525	95.0200	95.0200	95.3325	94.8450

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained sharply down, near its lifetime low of 95.3325 a dollar, as crude oil prices soared amid the blockade of Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway that carries a fifth of the world's oil, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India's likely intervention helped the Indian unit to pare some losses, they said.

 

"Rupee has touched new low, now sky is the limit. The rupee can fall to 96, 97 (a dollar) if the global factors are haywire," a dealer at a public-sector bank said. Banks bought dollars for importers and foreign portfolio investors, which further weighed on the Indian unit, they said.

 

The June futures contract of Brent crude oil rose to $122.40 a barrel at 1228 IST from $118.03 a barrel Wednesday. Brent crude June futures rose to a high of $126.41 a barrel Thursday after US President Donald Trump said he will keep the naval blockade on Iranian ports and coastal routes until it agrees to a deal that addresses concerns about the nuclear programme.

 

Dealers said state-owned banks sold dollars on behalf of the RBI to limit the rupee's depreciation. "RBI came in at around 95.35 level (a dollar), not very aggressively. It can't come in heavily to protect the rupee as the buying (dollar demand) is very high. Even if the RBI intervenes and moves 1 rupee, it will go back to the same level the next day due to high buying pressure," a dealer at another public-sector bank said. 

 

Importers bought dollars with a sense of panic, fearing further depreciation of the Indian currency, dealers said. The rupee fell past its earlier all-time low of 95.22 per dollar in just a month. The Indian currency has fallen almost 4.7% against the dollar since the war in West Asia began on Feb. 28.

 

Continued foreign portfolio outflows from domestic markets also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. FPIs have pulled out $19.46 billion from markets so far in 2026, which is higher than $10.92 billion worth of FPI outflows in the whole of 2025.

 

"If oil remains high and FPIs keep exiting, the rupee will cross 96 (a dollar) in no time. The RBI will have to take some measures to bring FPIs back in market," the dealer said. Both the Nifty 50 and Sensex were down 1.3?ch at 1208 IST.

 

Strengthening of the dollar index also added pressure on the rupee, they said. The dollar index rose Thursday after the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged but adopted a more hawkish tone amid growing inflation concerns. At 1212 IST, the dollar index was 99.09, up from 98.97 Wednesday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.00 and 95.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.40 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Apr 30

 

MUMBAI – At 1057 IST, the rupee was at 95.3000 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.0200 a dollar, against the previous close of 94.8450. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	95.80	95.60	95.10	94.90
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.65	95.05	94.90
Foreign Bank	95.75	95.55	94.95	94.75
Brokerage firm	95.65	95.50	95.00	94.85
Brokerage firm	95.60	95.50	95.10	94.80

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Hits record low as oil prices at 4-yr high on Hormuz blockade

 

	AT 0947 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2500	95.0200	95.0200	95.2000	94.8450

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply against the dollar and hit a record low of 95.2875 a dollar Thursday as crude oil prices surged above $125 per barrel and hit an over four-year high amid stalled US-Iran ‌peace negotiations, dealers said. A sharp fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Indian currency, they said.

 

The June futures contract of Brent crude oil rose to $126.10 a barrel at 1000 IST from $118.03 a barrel Wednesday. "If crude stays at this level for a few days, the rupee will easily cross 96 a dollar," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.

 

However, dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to step in to sell dollars to curb the rupee's fall. Some dealers speculated that the central bank may be already intervening intermittently to slowdown the rupee's slide. "Rupee is at a fresh low. I think the RBI will step in at 95.25 a dollar and continue what it has been doing for a week," the dealer said. The RBI has been actively selling dollars through state-owned banks in the spot market since last week, dealers said.

 

Crude oil prices jumped up after US President Donald Trump said he will keep the naval blockade on Iranian ports and coastal routes until it agrees to a deal that addresses concerns about the nuclear programme. Trump posted on Truth Social asking Iran to "better get smart soon" on the nuclear agreement. Brent Crude oil price has risen nearly 13% so far this week and 68% since the war began on Feb. 28.

   

Banks bought dollars persistently for oil importers, who feared further fall of the rupee amid soaring oil prices, dealers said. "The demand (for dollars) from importers, mostly oilers (oil companies) is huge. But exporters are still in wait and watch mode," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

Persistent foreign portfolio outflows also weighed on the rupee, they said. Foreign portfolio investors have pulled out $5.20 billion from the Indian markets so far in April. At 0930 IST, Nifty 50 and Sensex were down almost 1.3%. 

 

The dollar index also strengthened, adding to the pressure on Asian currencies, including the rupee. At 0920 IST, the dollar index was 98.99, slightly up from 98.97 Wednesday. The index rose to a high of 99.02 Thursday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 94.90 and 95.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.30 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed on W Asia war uncertainty; surge in oil weighs

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded mixed against the dollar in early trade Thursday as investors assessed developments related to the war in West Asia and the US Federal Open Market Committee's policy statement. However, a surge in crude oil prices weighed on most Asian units. 

 

US President Donald Trump Wednesday asked aides to brace for a longer blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may last for months after he rejected Iran's proposal to end the war. He said in an interview, "The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing. They are choking like a stuffed pig. And it is going to be worse for them." Further in a post on Truth Social, Trump said, "Iran can't get their act together. They don't know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon!"

 

Crude oil prices surged after reports of a prolonged blockade of key waterway that carries roughly one fifth of world's oil. At 0755 IST, Brent crude June futures were $120.07, up from $118.03 Wednesday. Brent crude June futures rose to $122.53 a barrel Wednesday, highest since 2022.

 

The Fed held interest rates steady Wednesday and noted rising concerns about inflation in its policy statement. "Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent global energy prices," Fed said in its policy statement, a shift from saying inflation is "somewhat" elevated previously. Investors are now keeping a close watch on the monetary policy decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, due later Thursday. 

 

The Malaysia ringgit fell 0.4% against the dollar, nearing a one-week low Thursday. Ringgit fell the most among its Asian peers. The Philippine peso rose 0.3% against the dollar, ending an eight-day losing streak. The peso recovered a bit after it hit a fresh low in early trade Thursday as dollar stayed firm following the Fed's decision. 

 

The South Korean won rose 0.2% against the dollar, but hovered near a three-week low Thursday as firm dollar and broad risk-off sentiment continued to weigh on the currency. The baht was broadly stable against the dollar after it hit a one-month low in early trade Thursday amid uncertainty over tensions in West Asia and as peace talks between the US and Iran showed no signs of progress.    

 

The Hong Kong dollar rose while the Taiwan dollar and Singapore dollar were broadly stable against the dollar. The Chinese yuan was flat against the dollar despite data Thursday showing China's factory activity expanded for a second straight month in April. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index dipped to 50.3 from 50.4 in March, but held above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction, according to a survey by the National Bureau of Statistics. It beat a median forecast of 50.1 in a Reuters poll.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Apr 30

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	95.00	94.50
Private-sector bank	95.25	94.65
Private-sector bank	95.25	94.60
Private-sector bank	95.05	94.65
Private-sector bank	95.20	94.60
Foreign bank	95.30	94.55
Brokerage firm	95.25	94.75
Brokerage firm	95.30	94.70

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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