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Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 29, 2026

 

By Anand JC

 

MUMBAI - The year-on-year revenue growth of Bajaj Auto Ltd. for the March quarter is projected to hit a nine-quarter high, driven by a 30% year-on-year growth in its wholesale sales, according to analysts. While a higher mix of three-wheelers in its exports is expected to boost the average selling price of the automaker's vehicles for the reporting quarter, the growth is expected to be the slowest in three consecutive quarters.

 

Bajaj Auto is expected to report a net profit of INR 26.31 billion for the March quarter, up over 28% on year, according to the average of 16 estimates. If met, the on-year growth in Bajaj Auto's net profit would be the fastest in eight years. The highest estimate for the automaker's bottom line is INR 28.11 billion by Kotak Securities and the lowest projection is INR 25.40 billion by Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.

 

The Pune-based automotive giant's top line for the March quarter is projected to increase nearly 30% on year to INR 157.80 billion, according to the average of 16 estimates. The highest projection for Bajaj Auto's revenue is INR 160.48 billion by YES Securities (India) Ltd. and the lowest is INR 155.32 billion by Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd.

 

Analysts project Bajaj Auto's revenue to get a fillip from a higher mix of three-wheelers in its exports, higher sales of premium two-wheelers, and sustained growth in overall exports amid a depreciating rupee. The automaker has a domestic market share of around 17% in motorcycles. The company registered robust growth in the electric scooter space through its Chetak range, closing 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) as India's second-best seller with a market share of around 23%. In the three-wheeler space, the company has a market share of around 65%.

 

Bajaj Auto sold 1.37 million automobiles in the March quarter, up 24% on year. This includes domestic wholesale sales of 760,846 units, up 24% on year and exports of 610,212 units, up almost 25%. The company's exports in the March quarter would've been higher, but it missed its own expectations for March, likely because of the war in West Asia which disrupted global supply chains. "March is a very short month because we close it much earlier from an exports point of view. So, you have much less days left for managing the shipping, etcetera," Executive Director Rakesh Sharma had told analysts in January in a post-earnings call for the December quarter.

 

Bajaj Auto has been tweaking its market strategy in motorcycles with an engine capacity exceeding 125 cubic centimetres, especially the 150cc+ segment. This strategy has helped the company improve its market share in these segments, where the average selling price per vehicle is higher. "Seven interventions between November and now (January) in the form of upgrades and refreshes have been made in the last two months, driving growth and share supported by a positive environment. The waves of these interventions will be unrelenting here onwards with over eight more such interventions being made in the next 4 months," Sharma had said.

 

"It has been gaining market share in the strategic 125cc+ segment driven by Pulsar and 150cc+ sports portfolio as the domestic motorcycle industry saw sharp revival in demand after GST 2.0 rate rationalisation," Prabhudas Lilladher said. "The management aims to outpace industry growth in this sub-segment, although <125cc>

 

Bajaj Auto is expected to report earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of INR 32.49 billion, according to the average of 13 estimates. If met, this would translate to a year-on-year growth of 33%. The highest EBITDA estimate for the automaker is INR 33.20 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher and lowest forecast is INR 31.50 billion by Elara Securities.

 

Analysts expect the company's EBITDA margin for the March quarter to gain from the depreciation of the rupee, operating leverage, and richer product mix, but the benefits may be partly offset by higher advertisement expenditure, commodity cost pressures, and freight costs. Bajaj Auto had reported an EBITDA margin of 20.2% in the year-ago quarter.

 

Bajaj Auto will detail its results for the March quarter on May 6. Wednesday, shares of Bajaj Auto ended 0.5% higher at INR 9,543 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock has remained largely flat since the company reported its December quarter earnings on Jan. 30.

 

Of the 16 brokerage reports on Bajaj Auto available with Informist, 10 have a "buy" recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 10,995. This is roughly 15% higher than the stock's closing price Wednesday. Four brokerages have a "hold" or equivalent call with an average target price of INR 9,542 while two others have a "sell" recommendation.

 

The following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates, in INR billion, for Bajaj Auto from 16 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Kotak Securities Ltd	159.53	28.11	33.04
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	159.23	27.38	32.87
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	160.20	26.97	33.20
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	158.54	26.70	32.98
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	159.01	26.50	32.99
Equirus Securities Pvt Ltd	158.02	26.38	32.39
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd	157.16	26.29	0.00
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	156.79	26.29	32.66
YES Securities (India) Ltd	160.48	26.27	31.90
SMIFS Ltd	158.15	26.22	32.93
ICICI Securities Ltd	157.14	26.13	32.21
Nomura Equity Research	157.16	25.87	32.03
HDFC Securities Ltd	155.39	25.49	0.00
BK security	157.14	25.49	0.00
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd	155.32	25.41	31.71
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd	155.60	25.40	31.50
Average	157.80	26.31	32.49

 

 

End

 

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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