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Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 29, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply against the dollar and ended at a record closing low Wednesday as crude oil prices rose above $115 per barrel, dealers said. The Indian unit was also weighed down by continuous dollar purchases by oil marketing companies and foreign portfolio investors, they said.

 

However, the rupee's fall was limited as the Reserve Bank of India actively intervened to support the currency, they said. "The RBI was selling (dollars) around the 94.80 (a dollar) level early in the day. That is why the rupee was rangebound. Later, the demand for dollars came in heavily, mainly from oilers (oil marketing companies)," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

The Indian unit settled at 94.8450 a dollar on Wednesday, down 0.3% from its previous close. The Indian currency has fallen over 4% against the dollar since the war in West Asia broke out on Feb. 28.

 

The Indian unit started the day on a weaker footing, opening 20 paise lower from its previous close, as risk appetite among investors was dampened amid rising crude oil prices, driven by scepticism over a near-term end to the war in West Asia. US President Donald Trump Tuesday claimed Iran was in a 'state of collapse' and has requested the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz 'as soon as possible'. However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Trump's comments were just a tactic to weaken Iran's hand. 

 

Meanwhile, the US continued to block Iranian ports and coastal routes and Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz shut for transport, sending crude prices to a four-week high, weighing heavily on the rupee. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil prices for June delivery were at to $114.35 a barrel, up from $110.70 a barrel Tuesday. Prices hit a high of $115.43 earlier Wednesday. 

 

Banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies, fearing further depreciation of the rupee and a rise in crude oil prices, dealers said. "There was huge demand (for dollars) from oilers (oil importers) today (Wednesday). The RBI's special credit facility for oilers has not worked much, as they have to pay interest on it. So, they are back in the market," a dealer from a public-sector bank said. 

Strong foreign portfolio outflows from domestic markets also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. So far in April, FPIs have net sold Indian securities worth $5.2 billion. 

 

The dollar index rose Wednesday on the back of safe-haven demand due to uncertainty around peace talks between the US and Iran, weighing on the rupee, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 98.73 against 98.60 Tuesday and 98.50 Monday. 

 

Meanwhile, market participants await the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement later in the day, with interest rates widely expected to remain unchanged. Investors will also be watchful of comments on the trajectory of rates from here on. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.8450	94.7400	94.7000	94.8550	94.5400
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	308.27	307.70	308.33	303.03	304.00

 

FORWARDS 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium settled higher Wednesday as banks persistently bought forward dollars on behalf of importers, noting the sharp fall in the rupee in the spot market, dealers said. However, dealers speculated that gains in forward premiums were limited because the RBI likely sold forward dollars to offset its intervention in the spot market.

 

The RBI has been intervening for a week to slow the rupee's depreciation. "The rupee will fall because of global factors. RBI just wants it to fall gradually," a dealer at a public-sector bank said. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.25%, up from 3.21% at close Tuesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 308.27 paise, up from 304.00 paise Tuesday.

 

OUTLOOK 

On Thursday, the rupee will track movements in crude oil prices as the US-Iran standoff keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed to global trade. The rupee will also take cues from movements in the dollar index after the US Fed's policy decision late Wednesday, dealers said. Market participants also await policy decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, due Thursday.

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, fearing further rupee depreciation, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Persistent foreign portfolio outflows may also add pressure on the Indian unit. 

 

However, most market participants expect the RBI to continue intervening by selling dollars to curb the rupee's sharp depreciation. They expect the central bank to intervene aggressively once the rupee inches closer to the psychologically crucial 95-per-dollar level. "RBI has been intervening mildly so far, but they can step up anytime when 95 is nearer," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

Dealers see technical support for the Indian currency at 94.90 a dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.50-95.00 against the dollar Thursday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index rises ahead of FOMC decision

 

	AT 1514 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3499	1.3528	1.3495	1.3515
EUR/USD	1.1700	1.1722	1.1693	1.1715
NZD/USD	0.5854	0.5892	0.5854	0.5881
AUD/USD	0.7152	0.7189	0.7151	0.7180
USD/JPY	159.8060	159.8180	159.5240	159.5750
USD/CAD	1.3688	1.3692	1.3677	1.3672
EUR/JPY	186.9030	187.0250	186.6840	186.8600
CHF/USD	1.2659	1.2685	1.2657	1.2663
EUR/CHF	0.9242	0.9248	0.9231	0.9235

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's decision later Wednesday. Market participants expect the committee to keep the repo rate unchanged amid growing inflationary pressure stemming from the energy supply shock due to the war in West Asia. The dollar index rose to 98.72 at 1426 IST against 98.60 Tuesday and 98.50 Monday.

 

The pound sterling gained against the dollar, and was up 0.31% Wednesday ahead of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee meeting on Thursday. The committee left the policy rate unchanged at 3.75% in its last meeting.

 

The euro was broadly steady, with the European Central Bank's monetary policy committee scheduled to announce its decision on rates on Thursday. Both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are expected to keep interest rates steady.

 

The Japanese yen gained against the dollar, with the Bank of Japan holding interest rates on Tuesday and taking a hawkish outlook on inflation levels this year. (Suryash Kumar)

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India Rupee: Premium up on importers' demand; RBI fwd dlr sales limit gains

 

	AT 1421 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.8325	94.7400	94.7075	94.8050	94.5400
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	305.77	307.70	308.33	303.03	304.00

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose slightly as banks bought dollars for forward delivery, on behalf of importers, fearing a further fall in the local unit, dealers said. The rupee fell to an intraday low of 94.85 a dollar on Wednesday due to soaring crude oil prices and foreign fund outflows.

 

However, dealers speculated that gains in forwards premiums were limited, as the RBI likely sold forwards dollars to offset the intervention in the spot market. "Selling is happening at 80 level. The demand for dollars is mainly by oil importers," said a dealer at foreign bank. This week, the central bank has been selling dollars in the spot market to prevent the rupee from hitting a record low, dealers said.

Crude oil prices rose to a four-week high, which weighed on the Indian unit. Brent crude oil prices for June delivery was $114.48 a barrel at 1351 IST, up from $111.26 a barrel Tuesday. Brent crude June futures jumped 5.5% this week as the US continued its blockade on Iranian ports and coastal routes and Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz shut for global trade. The peace talks between both the countries also remained on hold after US President Donald Trump said he was dissatisfied with Iran's latest proposal to end the war.
 

Market participants await the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting due later Wednesday along with a slew of major banks' monetary policy meetings scheduled this week. At 1344 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 3.22%, up from the previous close of 3.21%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 305.27 paise, against Tuesday's close of 304.00 paise. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Stays down as oil above $112/bbl; RBI intervention limits fall

 

	AT 1319 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.7650	94.7400	94.7075	94.8050	94.5400

 

MUMBAI - The rupee remained sharply lower against the dollar as crude oil prices rose above $112 per barrel amid concern related to the US-Iran standoff as the US continued to block Iranian ports and coastal routes even as Tehran maintained its own choke hold over the Strait of Hormuz, dealers said. AT 1230 IST, Brent crude oil prices for June delivery rose to $112.26 a barrel from $111.26 a barrel Tuesday. Brent crude June Futures have risen 54% since the war began on Feb. 28. 

 

However, fall of the rupee was limited as state-owned banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, but not aggressively, they said. "If it was on market players, the rupee would have crossed 95 (a dollar) long back, but there is good support from RBI, which is why the rupee is range bound even after huge outflows," a dealer at a public-sector bank said.

 

The rupee moved in a tight range of just 11 paise so far Wednesday. "The RBI's intervention pattern is likely to continue in the same way, because it wants the rupee to depreciate gradually. The fall of the rupee is inevitable with rising crude and geopolitical tensions, so the rupee is likely to touch 95.00 (a dollar) level next week," the dealer said. 

 

Noting sharp rise in crude oil prices and depreciation of the rupee, oil marketing companies also bought dollars, which further weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. Continuous foreign portfolio outflows also exerted pressure on the rupee, dealers said.

 

"From Mar. 20, there has been only outflows, mainly because of attraction towards rates (US treasury yields). The government must take measures to make India attractive to them. Only then will they come back," said a dealer at another state-owned bank. So far in April, FPIs have pulled out funds worth over $5 billion from Indian markets.

 

A rise in the dollar index also put pressure on most Asian currencies, including the rupee, they said. The dollar index rose to 98.71 at 1228 IST against 98.60 Tuesday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 94.60 and 94.90 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.80 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Apr 29

 

MUMBAI – At 1110 IST, the rupee was at 94.7750 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 94.7400 a dollar, against the previous close of 94.5400. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	95.10	94.90	94.55	94.30
Private-sector bank	95.00	94.90	94.60	94.40
Foreign Bank	95.15	94.95	94.40	94.30
Brokerage firm	95.20	95.00	94.60	94.40
Brokerage firm	95.20	94.95	94.45	94.30

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Sharply down as oil above $110/bbl; RBI's dlr sales limit fall

 

	AT 1000 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.7575	94.7400	94.7400	94.8050	94.5400

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply against the dollar in early trade Wednesday as crude oil prices stayed above $110 a barrel with efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz showing no signs of progress, dealers said. However, dealers said state-owned banks sold dollars, likely for the Reserve Bank of India, which limited losses for the rupee. 

 

"RBI intervened in the morning. But, it's high time the RBI steps in aggressively to prevent the rupee from touching 95.00 a dollar level. The intervention should move 20 to 30 paise, or else the rupee will reach a fresh low soon," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

Crude oil prices remained elevated also as investors digested United Arab Emirates' exit from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and OPEC+ alliance. At 0903 IST, Brent crude oil prices for June delivery were $110.79 a barrel, slightly down from $111.26 a barrel Tuesday. Brent crude June Futures hit a four-week high of $112.70 a barrel Tuesday. "Oil was already under pressure and reports on the UAE withdrwal will just add to that as the alliance will have more liberty in pricing," the dealer said.  

 

US President Donald Trump Tuesday said the Iranian government has reached a structural breaking point, claiming Tehran has signalled desperation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran's foreign minister said the comments were Trump's tactics to weaken Iran's hand. The US blockade of Iranian ports and coastal routes and Iran's closure of the strait continue to choke energy trade. 

 

Persistent foreign investor outflow also added to pressure on the Indian currency, dealers said. FIIs pulled out nearly $5.1 billion from the Indian market so far in April. "There is a huge amount of outflows now, with just minimal inflows. The rupee will just suffer in such situations," a dealer at another private-sector bank said. 

 

A fall in other Asian currencies also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. Most Asian currencies were down 0.2-0.8% against the dollar in early trade Wednesday, with the Philippine peso being the worst hit.

 

Meanwhile, market participants await the result of the US Federal Reserve's April policy meeting scheduled later Wednesday, which will be Jerome Powell's last as Fed chair.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 94.50 and 94.90 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.80 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed on US-Iran talks uncertainty; Fed decision eyed

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note against the dollar as market participants await the US Federal Reserve's policy decision Wednesday and the result of a slew of other major central banks' monetary policy meetings this week, amid surge in energy prices owing to the war in West Asia.

 

US President Donald Trump Tuesday said that Iran has indicated it was in a state of collapse and grappling with leadership, as efforts for peace talks between both the nations showed no signs of progress. Trump said in a post on Truth Social that Iran has urged the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible. However, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied any domestic disintegration, saying it was US' tactic to weaken Iran's hand.

 

In a sudden move, the United Arab Emirates Tuesday said it will exit the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the broader alliance of OPEC plus allies. The departure of the third-largest oil producer in the bloc will cripple the pricing power of OPEC. However, the exit may benefit many countries as the UAE looks to monetise its vast energy reserves, increasing its supply and easing crude oil prices. June futures of Brent crude eased slightly after hitting a four-week-high Monday. It fell to $110.66 a barrel at 0802 IST from $111.26 a barrel Tuesday.

 

The dollar index strengthened as investors shifted to safe-haven asset as hopes of a near-term resolution to the war diminished, which weighed on Asian currencies. At 0825 IST, dollar index was 98.65, slightly up from 98.60 Tuesday.

 

Thai Baht fell 0.3% against the dollar, most among Asian peers, after the ministry of finance Tuesday lowered its 2026 growth forecast to 1.6% from 2.0%, citing the impact of the war in West Asia. The Bank of Thailand is expected to hold the one-day repurchase rate at 1% on Wednesday. Governor Vitai Ratanakorn said earlier this month that the policy rate would be maintained at its current level "for as long as possible" to support the economy.

 

"The BOT (Bank of Thailand) will likely want to look through the inflation shock as much as possible, and with that fiscal policy including through cash handouts and subsidies through domestic fuel and diesel prices should take more of a role in managing the shock from the Middle East (West Asia) Conflict," Michale Wan, senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank, said in a note. "Overall, this also means that the BOT will unlikely push back too much against currency weakness, and this will leave USD/THB ultimately dependent on how the SoH crisis plays out moving forward," he added. 

 

The South Korean won fell 0.2% against the dollar owing to higher oil prices. South Korea relies heavily on overseas supplies to meet its energy needs. The Philippine peso fell 0.2% against the dollar, hitting a new low and marking the eighth day of a consecutive fall. The Taiwan dollar fell 0.1% against the dollar. 

 

The Singapore dollar, Hong Kong dollar, Chinese yuan, and Malaysia ringgit were broadly stable. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Apr 29

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	94.90	94.65
Private-sector bank	94.65	94.25
Private-sector bank	94.90	94.40
Private-sector bank	94.85	94.40
Private-sector bank	94.80	94.30
Foreign bank	94.90	94.25
Brokerage firm	94.95	94.45
Brokerage firm	94.85	94.35

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 94.8450

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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