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Informist, Tuesday, Apr. 28, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended at an over four-week low against the dollar Tuesday as crude oil prices soared to a three-week high of over $110 a barrel, dealers said. However, dollar sales by state-owned banks, likely for the Reserve Bank of India, limited the losses for the Indian unit, they said. 

 

The rupee was weighed down by risk-off sentiment amid uncertainty over the US-Iran peace talks, dealers said. "The peace deal may take some time now. Till there is no conclusion to the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the rupee will be under pressure," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

The rupee moved in a range of 21 paise during the day and hit a low of 94.5775 a dollar, before settling at 94.5400 a dollar Tuesday. The Indian unit fell 0.4% against the dollar and in line with other Asian currencies, which fell 0.2-0.9%, with the Philippine peso being the worst hit. The rupee had closed at 94.1900 on Monday. 

 

Reports said US President Donald Trump was not satisfied with the latest proposal Iran sent via Pakistan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war. Iran had offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade on Tehran's ports and coastal areas, while proposing that discussion on the nuclear program take place later, Iranian officials said Monday. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has increased pressure on energy supplies, raising oil prices by 53% since the war began. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil prices for June delivery rose to $111.10 a barrel from $108.23 a barrel Monday. 

 

The dollar index strengthened as investors shifted to safe-haven assets after stalled peace talks between the US and Iran dampened risk sentiment. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 98.70, up from 98.50 Monday. The dollar index hit a high of 98.77 Tuesday. 

 

Further, a fall in domestic equities also exerted pressure on the Indian unit, dealers said. The Nifty 50 and Sensex closed 0.4% and 0.5% lower, respectively, Tuesday. Banks also bought dollars for foreign portfolio investors, looking to exit from Indian markets, which weighed on the local unit, dealers said.

 

"FPIs continued to sell and there were a lot of outflows today. They have to come back if the rupee has to appreciate," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. FPIs have net sold instruments worth $5.09 billion so far in April. 

 

Banks also bought dollars for oil companies and other importers, who feared a further fall in the rupee, dealers said. The Indian currency depreciated by over 1.4% against the dollar last week. Importers also bought dollars to meet their month-end payment requirements, they said. "Usually, during month-end, there will be a lot of outflows related to month-end payments. FPI outflows also added to that, leading to a sharp fall in the rupee," the dealer quoted above said. 

 

However, RBI's active dollar sales throughout the day limited losses for the rupee. "RBI came in during the day, not very aggressively. It did not protect the 94.50 level as expected. RBI was just curbing the volatility," the dealer said.  

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.5400	94.3700	94.3700	94.5775	93.1900
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	304.00	300.50	304.00	299.50	288.09

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended at a three-week high as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of corporates and importers, who feared the rupee would depreciate further, dealers said. "Sun Pharma's acquisition of US-based Organon & Co, valued at $11.75 billion, led to a substantial outflow in the (forward) market," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

Premiums rose despite an increase in US Treasury yields on Monday, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.22%, up from 3.06% Monday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 304.00 paise, against 288.09 paise Monday.  

 

OUTLOOK 

On Wednesday, the rupee will continue to take cues from crude oil price movements amid evolving developments in the US-Iran peace talks, dealers said. The rupee will also take cues from movements in domestic equities and the dollar index, they said. 

 

"Uncertainty around US–Iran ceasefire developments continues to keep sentiment fragile, with markets reacting to every update on escalation or de-escalation. In the near term, 94.00 is likely to act as resistance, while 95.00 remains the next key support, with the rupee expected to stay volatile and driven by crude and global risk cues," Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst - commodity and currency at LKP Securities, said in a note. 

 

However, dealers also expect the RBI to continue intervening and to limit the rupee's fall if it comes under extreme pressure. "I think RBI will intervene but not to the extent that the rupee's movement changes altogether," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 94.60 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.30-94.80 against the dollar Wednesday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Yen gains after BoJ holds rates in split vote

 

	AT 1537 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3491	1.3541	1.3487	1.3534
EUR/USD	1.1692	1.1728	1.1686	1.1720
NZD/USD	0.5888	0.5917	0.5882	0.5902
AUD/USD	0.7173	0.7195	0.7162	0.7184
USD/JPY	159.5720	159.6870	158.9600	159.4110
USD/CAD	1.3654	1.3658	1.3614	1.3624
EUR/JPY	186.5480	186.9457	186.0740	186.7640
CHF/USD	1.2658	1.2741	1.2655	1.2721
EUR/CHF	0.9236	0.9239	0.9204	0.9199

 

MUMBAI – The Japanese yen gained against the dollar after the Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, but three members of the board voted for a hike in the rate considering inflationary pressures emerging from the crisis in West Asia. The split between the board members suggested a strong possibility of a rate hike in the future if the US-Iran war continues.

 

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda also signalled that real interest rates are significantly low and the risk of inflation rising remains a highly likely scenario. This underscored the hawkish outlook of the central bank, supporting the yen.

 

The dollar index rose in European trade after falling for the last two days as the US and Iran peace talks continued to teeter, with US President Donald Trump being dissatisfied with the proposal submitted by Iran to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. At 1515 IST, the dollar index was 98.75 against 98.50 Monday and 98.51 Friday. The euro fell 0.2% against the greenback. 

 

The British pound fell 0.3% against the dollar ahead of the Bank of England's monetary policy decision Thursday. The Swiss franc fell 0.5% against the dollar as investors' risk appetite dampened amid growing uncertainty around the West Asia war. The Canadian dollar was down 0.2% against the dollar.  (Suryash Kumar)

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India Rupee: Premiums rise to 2-week high as importers buy fwd dlrs

 

	AT 1420 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.4800	94.3700	94.3700	94.5775	94.1900
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	303.00	300.50	303.50	299.50	288.09

 

MUMBAI – The one-year rupee dollar premium rose to a two-week high Tuesday as banks persistently bought dollars for long-term forward delivery for corporates and importers, who feared further depreciation in the rupee. The one-year rupee dollar premium rose to an intraday high of 303.50 paise Tuesday. "There are a lot of outflows in the market now. Sun Pharma deal also led to substantial outflow (buying of dollars) in the market," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Monday said it will acquire US-based Organon & Co. in an all-cash deal valued at $11.75 billion, marking one of the largest overseas acquisitions by an Indian company. Foreign portfolio investors have been exiting the domestic equity market, which also weighed on the forwards. Foreign portfolio investors have pulled out funds worth $18.94 billion so far in 2026. At 1358 IST, the Nifty and Sensex were down nearly 0.5?ch. 

 

The Indian unit fell 38 paise intraday against the dollar in the spot market Tuesday as crude oil prices surged to three-week highs due to the war in West Asia. At 1355 IST, Brent Crude oil June futures traded at $110.96 per barrel, up sharply from $108.23 per barrel at close on Monday. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars through state-owned banks to limit the fall in the rupee, dealers said. The Indian unit fell beyond 94.50 a dollar Tuesday. 

 

Premiums rose despite an increase in US Treasury yields on Monday, dealers said. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose on Monday as investors awaited decision on rates from Federal Reserve. 

 

At 1413 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.20%, higher than Monday's close of 3.06%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 303.00 paise, against 294.13 paise Monday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee:Falls more on dlr buys by importers; RBI steps in to curb losses

 

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	AT 1251 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.5675	94.3700	94.3700	94.5775	94.1900

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell further against the dollar Tuesday as crude oil prices rose and as banks bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, dealers said. "There is usually a lot of buying (of dollars) at the end of the month as oil importers and corporates make payments during this time. So, the rupee depreciates on huge outflows (dollar buying)" a dealer at a private-sector bank said.  

 

However, the rupee's fall was limited as state-owned banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. "RBI is there but not really protecting the level, just trying to manage the volatility," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "If crude goes even higher, RBI may let go of rupee." 

 

On Tuesday, crude oil prices rose above $110 per barrel for the first time in three weeks amid uncertainty related to the peace deal between Iran and the US. "Nothing is taking place related to the US and Iran war. The war is in ninth week, with Strait (of Hormuz) still closed. Looking at the huge differences, it looks like a peace deal will take some time," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.

 

At 1245 IST, Brent crude oil price for June delivery was at $110.30 a barrel from $108.23 Monday. It hit a high of $111.32 during the day. Brent crude June futures have risen 53% since the war began on Feb. 28. 

 

US President Donald Trump said he was dissatisfied with Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war. Iran's foreign minister said negotiations with the US have failed repeatedly due to its excessive demands.

 

The rupee was also weighed down by a marginal fall in domestic equity indices, dealers said. At 1210 IST, the Nifty and Sensex were down 0.3?ch. Foreign portfolio investors have pulled out funds worth $4.69 billion so far in April, weighing on the rupee. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 94.30 and 94.70 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.60 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)     

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India Rupee: Falls sharply as oil rises on lack of progress in US-Iran talks

 

	AT 1006 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.4700	94.3700	94.3700	94.4775	94.1900

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply against the dollar in early trade Tuesday as crude oil prices rose to a three-week high amid rising uncertainty around the peace talks between the US and Iran, dealers said. "Both sides (the US and Iran) are talking, but there is no positive outcome. After a few days of talks, both sides disagree and this cycle just repeats. No one is coming on concluding terms and the market is also wary of this now," said a dealer at a private-sector bank. 

Investors were cautious after US President Donald Trump said he was dissatisfied with Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war. Iran asked the US to halt its blockade on ports and coastal routes in its proposal, according to media reports. Iran's foreign minister said negotiations with the US have failed repeatedly due to its excessive demands. At 0915 IST, Brent crude oil prices for June delivery rose to $109.30 a barrel, up from $108.23 a barrel Monday.

 

Meanwhile, dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to step in and sell dollars to limit the fall of the rupee. "The dollar/rupee will be on the upside till oil is elevated. The RBI was holding at 94.30 (a dollar). Now that level crossed, RBI may hold 94.50 levels, but if it doesn't, the rupee will soon fall to 95.00," the dealer said.  

 

A fall in other Asian currencies also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. Most Asian currencies were down 0.1-0.4% against the dollar, with the Phillipine peso being the worst hit. 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 94.10 and 94.60 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.50 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed on uncertainty over US-Iran talks; Thai baht dn

 

MUMBAI - Asian currencies traded on a mixed note against the dollar in early trade Tuesday as investors assessed developments around the peace deal between the US and Iran. US President Donald Trump Monday said he is not satisfied with Iran's recent proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war. 

 

Iran Sunday sent the proposal to the US through Pakistan, with the aim to resume the stalled negotiations. The proposal called the US to lift the blockades on its ports and coastal routes, but pushed talks on setting aside its nuclear program. The latest offer came after Trump cancelled US officials' trip to Pakistan for negotiations even as Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi shuttled between mediating countries. Crude oil prices extended gains, hitting a three-week high, as both countries continued to block the Strait, a key waterway for global trade.

 

At 0800 IST, Brent crude oil prices for June delivery rose to $109.40 a barrel from $108.23 a barrel Monday. Being major oil importers, many Asian countries are highly vulnerable to rising prices driven by tensions in West Asia, which can inflate import bills and hinder economic growth.

 

Investors are also keeping a close watch on US Federal Reserve meetings scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. Investors expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged as geopolitical uncertainty clouds the inflation outlook. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate steady at 0.75% on Tuesday, while revising its inflation estimates upwards as the Iran war raises supply-side risks. The decision was made with a split 6-3 vote. 

 

The Philippine peso fell 0.1% against the dollar, hitting a fresh low and marking the seventh day of consecutive fall. The Thai baht fell 0.3% against the dollar, most amongst its Asian peers. The Taiwanese dollar and Chinese yuan fell 0.1% against the dollar. 

 

The South Korean won, Hong Kong dollar, Malayasia ringgit, and Singapore dollar were broadly stable against the dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Apr 28

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	94.45	93.95
Private-sector bank	94.50	94.10
Foreign bank	94.50	93.80
Brokerage firm	94.50	93.60
Brokerage firm	94.55	94.10
Brokerage firm	94.45	93.85

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 94.5400

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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