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Informist, Friday, Apr. 24, 2026

By Kabir Sharma

MUMBAI – The rupee ended lower against the dollar for a fifth consecutive day Friday as crude oil prices soared above $105/bbl, dealers said. Growing risk-off sentiment among investors due to the conflict in West Asia also weighed on the local unit, they said. Intervention from the Reserve Bank of India ensured the currency did not depreciate rapidly towards 94.50 a dollar, dealers said. 

"Uncertainty around US–Iran talks and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are further supporting crude, adding to inflation concerns and limiting rupee recovery. The dollar remains steady, which is also capping any upside in INR. Overall, the bias remains weak, with the rupee likely to stay event-driven and volatile in the near term," Jateen Trivedi, research analyst - commodity and currency, LKP Securities, said in a note. 

After moving in a narrow range of 13 paise throughout the day the rupee ended at 94.2475 a dollar, against Thursday's close of 94.1050 a dollar. Other Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.4% against the dollar, with the South Korean won and the Phillipine peso being the worst hit.

The rupee fell against the dollar in early trade Friday as crude oil prices rose above $105 per barrel amid escalating tensions in West Asia, dealers said. Outflows from Indian equities on the back of worsening risk off sentiment also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 Friday ended 1.3% and 1.1% lower, respectively. 

Hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz continued as US President Donald Trump ordered the US military to 'shoot and kill' Iranian boats that deployed mines in the Strait. His comments came soon after the US captured a vessel carrying Iranian oil in the Indian Ocean and after Iran's official said the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps are prepared to target US naval vessels with speedboats and unmanned underwater vehicles. These threats clouded the hopes of investors for a near-term end to the war.  

At 1613 IST, Brent crude June futures were $107.09 a barrel, up from $105.07 a barrel Thursday. The Brent crude futures have risen nearly 17% this week after the US seized an Iranian ship Monday. The dollar index also strengthened and stayed near a two-week-high, adding pressure on the rupee, dealers said. At 1613 IST, the dollar index rose to 98.74 against 98.79 Thursday. 

The Reserve Bank of India's rollback of a few restrictions on banks' trading in non-deliverable forwards markets has also put pressure on the rupee this week.

Dealers said the rupee might have fallen to 94.50 a dollar if the RBI had not intervened by way of dollar sales, dealers said. The RBI sold dollars around 94.30 a dollar to curb sudden depreciation in the Indian unit, dealers said. 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across tenures as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who feared further depreciation in the rupee, they said.

Some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for near-term forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions, which weighed on premium forwards. The central bank has been actively intervening in the spot market since morning to limit the fall of the Indian unit, they said. 

Premiums rose despite a rise in US Treasury yields on Friday. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose on Friday as investors evaluated the potential effect on inflation from rising crude oil prices due to the war in West Asia.

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.07%, higher than Thursday's close of 3.05%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 288.94 paise, against 286.63 paise Thursday.

OUTLOOK

Markets are shut Saturday. On Monday, the rupee will continue to take cues from movement in crude oil price amid evolving developments related to the war in West Asia and peace talks between Iran and the US, dealers said. Most dealers expect the Indian unit to remain under pressure till the time Brent crude prices stay above $100 per barrel. The Indian currency will also continue to take cues from movement in the dollar index, they said. 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars amid looming uncertainties related to the war in West Asia, exerting pressure on the Indian unit. Continued FPI outflows may also weigh on the local currency, they said. 

However, market participants expect the RBI to step in through dollar sales if the Indian unit comes under extreme pressure, as has been the case recently. Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 94.50 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.00-94.50 against the dollar Monday.

India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index up on rise in oil prices, West Asia war

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose and hovered near 99 level Friday, with the greenback gaining strength against currencies, largely driven by rising crude oil prices due to growing uncertainty around the prospect of a peace settlement between the US and Iran. At 1510 IST, the dollar index was 98.81, up from 98.80 Thursday and 98.61 Wednesday.

The currencies were under pressure as crude oil prices rose as tension in West Asia escalated after the US seized a vessel carrying Iranian oil in Indian Ocean. At 1519 IST, The Brent Crude June futures traded at $107.09 barrel, up over 2% from the previous day's close. 

The British Pound sterling weakened against the dollar as investors factor in the heightened uncertainty in the West Asia war, especially as the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint between the warring nations. The pound was down 0.4% against the dollar at 1526 IST.

The Japanese yen was down against the dollar as rising crude oil prices and bets on a delayed rate hike by the Bank of Japan continued to weigh on the currency. The euro was down 0.12% against the dollar at 1532 IST, while the Swiss franc is also under downward pressure, with the Swiss bank expected to be the last bank to raise interest rates to control inflation stemming from the US-Iran war. This is mainly due to Switzerland being less dependent on crude for its energy needs. (Suryash Kumar) 

India Rupee: Premiums up on importer demand; RBI's fwd dlr sales speculated

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across tenures as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who feared further depreciation in the rupee, they said. "There was importers' demand, but very less. They are taking time in aligning fresh outlook as they await the geopolitical situation to unfold," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

US President Donald Trump Thursday announced a ceasefire extension between Israel and Lebanon. This was after early Wednesday he extended the ceasfire between the US and Iran until discussions between the two countries were concluded. "The ceasefire extension indicated that the US is taking time with Iran. I think oil may not rise substantially. That is also why the rupee has not depreciated to that extent," a dealer at another private-sector bank said. The rupee moved in a range of just 10 paise so far Friday.  

Meanwhile, some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for near-term forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions, which weighed on premium forwards. The central bank has been actively intervening in the spot market since morning to limit the fall of the Indian unit, they said. 

"The RBI sold dollars in the spot at 94.30 level to cap the market. Its motive is just to slow down the depreciation of rupee," the dealer said.

Premiums rose despite a rise in US Treasury yields on Friday. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose on Friday as investors evaluated the potential effect on inflation from rising crude oil prices due to the war in West Asia.

At 1414 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.09%, higher than Thursday's close of 3.05%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 290.86 paise, against 286.63 paise Thursday. (Divya Moolayattil)

 India Rupee: Remains down as crude prices jump; RBI's dlr sales limit fall

MUMBAI – The rupee remained sharply lower against the dollar as crude oil surged owing to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying supply concern and increasing risk-off sentiment among investors, dealers said. "Till there is no conclusion to the war, the rupee will be upside," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. However, the fall of the rupee was limited as state-owned banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, they said.

The rupee has moved in a range of just 10 paise so far Friday. "There will be no sudden spike (in dollar-rupee) and it will move in a 10-15 paise range until any confirmed reports regarding war come in," the dealer quoted above said. 

US President Donald Trump Thursday ordered the US military to "shoot and kill" Iranian boats that deploy mines to choke traffic through the Strait. The US military also seized a tanker carrying Iranian oil in the Indian Ocean. At 1211 IST, Brent crude oil price for June delivery rose $105.4 a barrel against $105.07 a barrel Thursday. Brent crude June futures has risen nearly 17% this week. 

"Anything can happen now, there is no clarity. Trump will tweet something in the weekend and the market will react, like it has been happening in the past few weeks," the dealer said.  

Dealers said banks bought dollars for importers, fearing further fall of rupee, which weighed on the Indian unit. "There is importers' demand, but minimal, so the overall volume is down today (Friday). Most of them are not hedging now and are in wait and watch mode as any sudden news during the weekend can change the direction of the market," a dealer quoted above said.   

A rise in the dollar index to a near two-week high also exerted pressure on most Asian currencies, including the rupee, they said. The dollar index rose to 98.84 at 1230 IST against 98.79 Thursday. The index hit a high of 98.94 on Thursday, highest since Apr. 13. 

A sharp fall in domestic equity indices also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. At 1313 IST, the Nifty and Sensex were down 1.3% each. "Foreign investors have been exiting for a long time, but the war has amplified that now," the dealer said. So far in April, FPIs have withdrawn over $3.72 billion worth of funds from Indian markets.

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 94.00 and 94.40 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.35 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

India Rupee: Falls as crude oil above $105/bbl; RBI intervention limits fall

MUMBAI – The rupee fell against the dollar in early trade Friday as crude oil prices rose above $105 per barrel amid escalating tensions in West Asia, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India likely stepped in to sell dollars, limiting losses for the rupee, they said.

"RBI has been intervening at 94.25-94.30 levels, but not very aggressively, just to curb the volatility in market." a dealer at a large private sector bank said. 

Hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz continued as US President Donald Trump ordered the US military to 'shoot and kill' Iranian boats that deployed mines in the Strait. His comments came soon after the US captured a vessel carrying Iranian oil in the Indian Ocean and after Iran's official said the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is prepared to target US naval vessels with speedboats and unmanned underwater vehicles. These threats clouded the hopes of investors for a near-term end to the war.  

At 0920 IST, Brent crude June futures were $106.08 a barrel, up from $105.07 a barrel Thursday. The Brent crude futures have risen nearly 17% this week after the US seized an Iranian ship Monday. "The rupee will weaken further now if oil keeps rising and if global factors are chaotic," a dealer at another private sector bank said. The rupee has fallen 1.4% against the dollar this week. 

The dollar index strengthened and stayed near a two-week-high, adding pressure on the rupee, dealers said. At 0920 IST, the dollar index rose to 98.88 against 98.79 Thursday. 

The Reserve Bank of India's rollback of a few restrictions on banks' trading in non-deliverable forwards markets has also put pressure on the rupee this week. "RBI's move created more volume in the market, now more corporates have come in. Many are betting against the rupee," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 94.00 and 94.40 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.30 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

India Rupee - Asia FX:Most units dn as crude rises, W Asia tensions escalate

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar in early trade Friday as crude prices continued to rise owing to increasing tensions between the US and Iran and stalled peace talks. US President Donald Trump Thursday ordered the US military to "shoot and kill" Iranian boats laying mines in the strait. This came after the US military seized another tanker carrying Iranian oil in the Indian ocean, ramping up its blockade on Iranian ports. 

Brent crude futures rose to $106.40 a barrel at 0855 IST against $105.07 a barrel Thursday. Brent crude futures have risen over 17% this week after US military seized an Iranian cargo ship Monday, weighing on the progress in peace talks. Iran has since then refused to participate in further negotiations. Most 

Asian countries are vulnerable to rise in oil prices as they rely heavily on imports. 

The dollar index also rose to a near two-week high Friday as investors rushed to safe-haven assets amid rising uncertainty in West Asia, weighing on Asian currencies. 0855 IST, the dollar index was at 98.88, against 98.80 on Thursday and 98.61 on Wednesday. The index hit a high of 98.94 Thursday.   

The Philippine peso fell 0.4% against the greenback even after the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas hiked its policy interest rate by a quarter-point Thursday, its first tightening move in more than two years as inflation flares up due to war in West Asia. 

The South Korean won and Malaysian ringgit fell 0.2% against the dollar, hitting a one-week low. The Hong Kong dollar and Singapore dollar were stable. Thai baht hovered near a two-week low Friday. Bucking the trend, the Taiwan dollar rose 0.1% against the US unit. (Divya Moolayattil)

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Apr 24

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

(Divya Moolayattil)

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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