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Informist, Thursday, Apr. 23, 2026

By Pratiksha

NEW DELHI – Intervention by the Reserve Bank of India notwithstanding, the rupee ended sharply lower against the dollar Thursday, settling below the 94-per-dollar mark for the first time in over three-weeks. This was because a stand-off between Iran and the US in the West Asia war and lack of progress on peace talks pushed crude oil prices back above $100 a barrel and dampened ‌investors' risk sentiment, dealers said.

The Indian currency fell for the fourth consecutive trading day and settled at 94.1050 a dollar, 0.3% lower than its previous close of 93.7950. Other Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.6% against the dollar, with the Indonesian rupiah and the Phillipine peso being the worst hit.  

"We may not see as sharp a fall in rupee as we were seeing before RBI's regulations, but the direction is only going to be downward from here if the war situation continues like this," a dealer at state-owned bank said. 

While US President Donald Trump Wednesday extended the ceasefire between the countries, Iran and the US are still restricting the transit of ships through the strait of Hormuz, which carried about 20% of daily global oil supplies until the war began on Feb. 28. Iran seized two ships in the waterway on Wednesday. Trump has also maintained a US Navy ‌blockade of Iran's trade by sea. 

Brent crude futures for June delivery were at $103.45 a barrel at 1530 IST, up from $101.91 a barrel Wednesday and $98.48 a barrel Tuesday. Brent crude prices settled above the $100 per barrel level for the first time in 10 days on Wednesday. If the upward trajectory of oil prices continue, India will be staring at a much higher current account deficit, a sharp rise in inflation, and lower GDP growth. 

The dollar index also strengthened as lack of progress in peace talks between the US and Iran weighed on investors' sentiment. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 98.59, against 98.70 on Wednesday and 98.41 on Tuesday. The index hit a high of 98.79 Thursday. 

Further, domestic equities fell sharply for the second consecutive session, weighed down by uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks, which also exerted pressure on the Indian currency, dealers said. On Thursday, the Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 0.8% and 1.1% lower, respectively. 

Banks also bought dollars on behalf of foreing portfolio investors, looking to pull out funds from Indian markets, dealers said. So far in April, FPIs have withdrawn over $3.75 billion worth of funds from Indian markets. This is on top of over $15 billion worth of FPI outflows in March. 

Banks also bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, fearing further depreciation of the Indian unit, dealers said. The Indian unit has depreciated almost 1.3% against the dollar this week. 

The Indian currency was also weighed down by the central bank's partial relaxation of restrictions on foreign exchange trading on Monday. The RBI withdrew its Apr. 1 circular that barred banks from offering non-deliverable forward contracts to resident and non-resident clients. While some traders have increased their dollar demand following this, others are still erring on the side of caution, dealers said. 

"RBI's relaxation of these norms has sort of added another layer of risk for rupee," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "If not for these, I am not so sure if rupee would be where it is today."

However, the RBI stepped in to sell dollars shortly after the market opened and ensured losses for the Indian unit were limited, dealers said. The central bank's intervention was not very aggressive in nature, but it likely intervened at multiple levels, they said. 

Further, noting the RBI's intervention, some banks also stepped in to sell dollars on behalf of exporters, dealers said. This also supported the Indian unit.

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended higher as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who fear the rupee will depreciate further, dealers said. However, the rise in forward premiums was limited as banks also sold forward dollars for exporters, noting the rupee's decline, they said. A rise in US treasury yields also weighed on premiums, they said. 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.05%, higher than Wednesday's close of 2.99%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 286.64 paise, against 281.41 paise Wednesday.

OUTLOOK

On Friday, the rupee will continue to take cues from movement in crude oil price amid evolving developments related to the war in West Asia and peace talks between Iran and the US, dealers said. Most dealers expect the Indian unit to remain under pressure till the time Brent crude prices stay close to $100 per barrel. The Indian currency will also continue to take cues from movement in the dollar index, they said. 

"Uncertainty around US–Iran talks and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are further supporting crude, adding to inflation concerns and limiting rupee recovery," Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst - commodity and currency at LKP Securities, said in a note. "The dollar remains steady, which is also capping any upside in INR. Overall, the bias remains weak, with the rupee likely to stay event-driven and volatile in the near term."

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars amid looming uncertainties related to the war in West Asia, exerting pressure on the Indian unit. Continued FPI outflows may also weigh on the local currency, they said. 

However, market participants expect the RBI to step in through dollar sales if the Indian unit comes under extreme pressure, as has been the case recently. Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 94.30 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.00-94.50 against the dollar Friday.

India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index edges up on rise in oil, W Asia tension

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose slightly as investors shifted to safe-haven assets as rising tensions in West Asia weighed on sentiment. Crude oil prices also surged past $100 a barrel after Iran Wednesday fired on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US also continued the blockade of Iranian ports and coastal routes. 

Iran's top negotiator and parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said reopening of the Hormuz was impossible with such a "flagrant breach of ceasefire." These developments increased the fear of disruption in energy supplies, sending crude prices to a high of $106 a barrel Thursday. At 1447 IST, Brent crude prices were $104.46 a barrel, up from $101.91 a barrel Wednesday and $98.48 a barrel Tuesday. 

The dollar also gained ground as higher energy prices intensified inflation concerns and reduced 

expectations of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. At 1447 IST, the dollar index was at 98.70, up from 98.60 Wednesday. 

The euro fell 0.3% against the dollar, hitting a 10-day low after S&P Global Germany manufacturing PMI fell to 51.2 in April from 52.2 in March, data released Thursday showed. Germany's services PMI fell sharply to 46.9 in April from 50.9 in March, marking the biggest fall since November 2022. Germany is the biggest economy in the Eurozone. The Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index are leading indicators of economic health, guiding central bank interest rate decisions, and influencing investor sentiment.

The pound sterling fell 0.1% against the US unit to a 10-day low. The UK's private sector output growth rose to 52.0 in April from 50.3 in March, but a sharp rise in cost pressures hit business optimism, data released by S&P Global Thursday showed. 

The Japanese yen fell for the third-consecutive day by 0.2% against the US unit. 

The Swedish franc fell 0.5% and Swiss krona fell 0.7% against the greenback. Bucking the trend, the Canadian dollar was stable against the dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

India Rupee: Premium up as importers buy fwd dlr on fear rupee may fall more

MUMBAI - The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose slightly as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who fear the rupee will depreciate further, dealers said. The rupee fell past 94-a-dollar level for the first time in over three weeks and hit a low of 94.16 a dollar. The rupee has depreciated over 1% against the dollar this week after the Reserve Bank of India rolled back some restrictions on trading in the non-deliverable forwards market and due to rising tensions in West Asia.

However, the rise in forward premiums was limited as banks also sold forward dollars for exporters, noting the rupee's decline. "Both importers and exporters were present in the market today," a dealer a foreign bank said.

The spike in crude oil prices continues to put pressure on the rupee, they said. Prices of crude touched a high of $106.15 a barrel, hitting an over two-week high. However, the fall of the rupee in spot was capped as the RBI likely intervened through dollar sales, although not very aggressively, dealers said.

At 1420 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.03%, higher than Wednesday's close of 2.99%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 284.64 paise, against 281.41 paise Wednesday. (Divya Moolayattil)

India Rupee: Pares losses as PSU banks sell dlrs likely for RBI, exporters

MUMBAI – The rupee erased some of its early losses as state-owned banks sold dollars, likely for the Reserve Bank of India and exporters, dealers said. The RBI's likely dollar sales were not aggressive in nature, they said. "Exporters are coming in now, it is a good level for them. But the export volume is low, so exporter activity will not make a substantial impact on the rupee now," a dealer at a public-sector bank said.

The rupee fell sharply against the dollar Thursday due to a sharp rise in crude oil prices after Iran fired ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US also continues to block ships transiting Iranian ports and coastal routes. Brent crude oil prices for June delivery rose to $103.28 a barrel from $101.91 a barrel Wednesday and $99.48 a barrel Tuesday.

"The dollar-rupee will be on upside till there is no conclusion in war. RBI may take some measures, but if global factors are haywire, then the rupee will weaken," a dealer at a public-sector bank said. 

A sharp fall in domestic equity indices also weighed on the Indian unit, they said. The Nifty and Sensex fell nearly 1% Thursday as escalating tensions in West Asia weighed on investor sentiment. "Market is not static, and there are FII (foreign institutional investors) outflows today. When FII leave the market, liquidity will reduce and the rupee will weaken. Bringing back the FII will only help in strengthening the rupee," said a dealer at a public-sector bank.

Further, banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, who feared further depreciation of the rupee, which further weighed on the rupee, dealers said. 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 94.00 and 94.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.20 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Apr 23

MUMBAI – At 1100 IST, the rupee was at 94.0550 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 94.0050 a dollar, against the previous close of 93.7950. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

(Divya Moolayattil)

India Rupee: Falls below 94/$1 as oil tops $100/bbl, West Asia tensions rise

MUMBAI – The rupee fell past 94-a-dollar for the first time in over three weeks Thursday as crude oil futures rose above $100 a barrel again after Iran attacked three ships in the Strait of Hormuz and due to lack of progress in peace talks between the US and Iran, dealers said.

At 0910 IST, Brent crude oil prices for June delivery were $103.81 a barrel, up from $101.91 a barrel Wednesday. Prices hit a high of $106.15 a barrel in early trade. "Market never moves on data, it moves on sentiment. The rupee can't be strong for a long period of time now," a dealer at private-sector bank said.

After attacking ships in the strait, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that any disruption in order and safety in the strait would be considered a 'red line. The US also continued its blockade on Iranian ports and coastal routes. "All currencies have reacted to recent attacks. Asian currencies, especially, cannot strengthen now," the dealer said.

However, dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to sell dollars if the Indian currency falls sharply. "RBI is expected to intervene anytime and get it back to 93.75 levels," the dealer said. However, some dealers said the RBI may not intervene aggressively given the strong dollar demand.

The RBI's recent rollback of a few restrictions on trade imposed on non-deliverable forwards continues to weigh on the rupee, dealers said. "Because of this, there is a lot of buying in the offshore market. The importers' activities have increased. The situation is back to square one now, but instead of banks, other entities are taking arbitrage positions," a dealer at another large private-sector bank said. The RBI Monday withdrew an Apr. 1 circular that barred banks from offering resident and non-resident clients non-deliverable forward contracts.

A sharp fall in domestic equity indices also weighed on the rupee. The Nifty and Sensex fell nearly 1% early Thursday, tracking fall in other Asian indices. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 93.90 and 94.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.20 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as West Asia tensions escalate, crude up

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar in early trade Thursday on renewed tensions in West Asia after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized two vessels and fired at three ships in the Strait of Hormuz Wednesday. This is the first time Iran has seized ships since the war began in February. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that any disruption in order and safety in the strait would be considered a 'red line', Iranian media reported.

Even as the US extended the ceasefire in the region, it continued the blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas to put pressure on Tehran's economy as it runs out of space to store the oil it is producing and cannot export due to the blockade. Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz as long as the US blockade remains. At 0806 IST, Brent crude oil for June delivery was $103.11 a barrel, up from $101.91 a barrel Thursday and $98.48 a barrel Wednesday.  

The Philippines peso fell 0.4% against the greenback, nearing the record low it hit on Mar. 30. The Thai baht also fell 0.4% against the US unit, hitting a two-week low.

The Taiwan dollar fell 0.2% against the US currency. The South Korean won fell 0.1% against the dollar as oil prices rose sharply. The country is vulnerable to fluctuations in crude prices as it is one of the biggest importers of oil in Asia, with more than half of the imports coming from the Gulf. Data released Thursday showed South Korea's GDP grew 3.6% on year in the March quarter, the highest since the third quarter of 2020 and sharply up from 1.6% in the previous quarter.

The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.6% against the dollar, the most amongst its Asian peers. On Wednesday, Indonesia's central bank held interest rates steady again, as the war in West Asia cast a shadow over the Southeast Asian country's economic outlook.

The Malaysian ringgit fell 0.1% against the dollar for the second consecutive day after nearing a one-week-high Tuesday. The Hong Kong dollar, Chinese yuan, and Singaporean dollar were broadly stable against the greenback.  (Divya Moolayattil)

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Apr 23

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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