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Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 22, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee ended sharply lower against the dollar for the third consecutive day, primarily owing to the uncertainty related to the US and Iran peace negotiations, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India's active intervention through dollar sales ensured losses for the Indian currency were limited, they said. 

 

The rupee settled at an over three-week low of 93.7950 a dollar on Wednesday, 0.3% lower than its previous close of 93.5000. The Indian unit was one of the worst performers amongst its Asian peers, which fell 0.1-0.3% against the greenback. 

 

"There was a lot of demand (for dollars) in the market, mostly spurred by the global situation," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "But looks like 94.00 will not break easily."

 

US President Donald Trump early Wednesday extended the ceasefire till Iran submits a proposal to end the war, but added that the US will continue to block ships passing through Iranian ports and coastal routes. Market participants remain uncertain about the second round of negotiations after US Vice President J.D. Vance postponed his trip to Pakistan because Iran refused to participate in further talks.

 

Moreover, Brent crude oil prices remained close to the key $100 per barrel mark despite the extension of the ceasefire following reports of gunfire attacks on at least three container ships in the Strait of Hormuz, weighing on the Indian unit, dealers said. Brent crude futures for June delivery were at $99.50 a barrel at 1530 IST, up from $98.48 a barrel Tuesday and $95.48 a barrel Monday.

 

The dollar index also hovered close to a week's high. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 98.35, against 98.41 on Tuesday and 98.05 on Monday. The index hit a high of 98.57 Tuesday. "I don't think the market is taking Trump's statements seriously anymore," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "What matters is what is happening on the ground in the war."

 

The Indian unit was also weighed by the central bank's partial relaxation of restrictions on foreign exchange trading on Monday. Dealers pointed to increased demand for dollars on the back of this. 

 

The RBI withdrew its Apr. 1 circular that barred banks from offering non-deliverable forward contracts to resident and non-resident clients. Banks have also been allowed to rebook or cancel such contracts. However, banks will not be allowed to offer derivative contracts to related parties, except for cancellation or rollover of existing contracts.

 

Oil marketing companies and other importers also stepped in to buy dollars, fearing further depreciation of the Indian unit, dealers said. However, the central bank marked its presence in the market by intervening through dollar sales at around 93.85 per dollar, which prevented further losses for the rupee, dealers said. However, the RBI's intervention was not aggressive, they said. 

 

"RBI seem to be present at 93.87 to supply these dollars," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP. "Overall, the steps taken by the RBI seem to be coming to a nought as the rupee has been on the depreciating side consistently since it appreciated to 92.50 earlier in this month despite the various steps taken by the RBI."

 

A sharp fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. On Wednesday, the Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 0.8% and 1.0% lower, respectively.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.7950	93.7050	93.6625	93.8700	93.5000
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	281.41	286.52	287.91	277.73	284.38

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums ended lower across tenures Wednesday as the RBI likely sold dollars for near-term forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in 3-6 months, they said.

 

Considering spot-dollar sales push rupee liquidity out of the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. 

 

However, banks also bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who fear a further fall in the rupee due to uncertainty around the second round of talks between the US and Iran, which supported premiums, dealers said. 

 

The 10-year benchmark US Treasury yields closed 4 basis points higher on Tuesday, which also weighed on premiums. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.98%, against Tuesday's close of 3.04%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 281.41 paise, against Tuesday's close of 284.38 paise. 

 

OUTLOOK

On Thursday, the rupee will take cues from crude oil price movements amid evolving developments in the second round of peace talks between Iran and the US, dealers said. Most dealers expect the Indian unit to remain under pressure as long as Brent crude prices stay close to $100 per barrel. The Indian currency may also take cues from movement in the dollar index, they said. 

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars amid looming uncertainties related to the war in West Asia, exerting pressure on the Indian unit. Continued FPI outflows may also weigh on the local unit, they said. 

 

However, market participants expect the RBI to step in through dollar sales if the Indian unit comes under extreme pressure, as has been the case recently.

 

"I think gradually RBI will have to let the rupee go beyond 94.00," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Unless they are planning to come up with more supportive measures, there is not much they can do right now."

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 94.00 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 93.50-94.00 against the dollar Thursday.

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India Rupee: Premiums down on RBI fwd dlr sales, importers' buys support

 

	AT 1412 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.8500	93.7050	93.6625	93.8700	93.5000
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	280.91	286.52	287.91	277.73	284.38

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell across tenures Wednesday as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for near-term forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in 3-6 months, they said.

 

"RBI's intervention was not very aggressive in spot today, they may likely intervene at 93.95 now," a dealer at a public-sector bank said. On Wednesday, the central bank sold the dollar in the spot market to limit the fall in the rupee, dealers said. 

 

However, banks also bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who fear further fall in the rupee due to uncertainty around the second round of negotiations between the US and Iran. US Vice-President J.D. Vance held off his trip to Pakistan for talks as Iran said it will not participate in further talks until the blockades on Iranian ports and coastal areas continue.

 

The 10-year benchmark US Treasury yields closed 4 basis points higher on Tuesday, which also weighed on premiums. At 1412 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.97%, against Tuesday's close of 3.04%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 280.91 paise, against Tuesday's close of 284.38 paise. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Remains sharply down; RBI likely steps in to limit fall

 

--Dealers: Some PSU banks' dollar sales, likely for RBI, limit rupee's fall 

--Dealers: Some PSU banks selling dollars, likely for RBI, around 93.85/$1 

 

	AT 1210 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.8300	93.7050	93.6725	93.7800	93.5000

 

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained sharply lower against the dollar Wednesday despite the extension of the US and Iran ceasefire as uncertainty around the second round of peace talks between both the countries looms, dealers said. However, losses for the Indian unit were limited as the Reserve Bank of India likely stepped in to sell dollars, they said. 

 

"The market is very volatile today, and it will be volatile till there is confirmation on progress in the situation. The rupee fell over 35 paise and then came back to 93.75 (a dollar)," a dealer at a public-sector bank said. The rupee fell for the third consecutive day to a low of 93.8500 Wednesday. 

 

US Vice President J.D. Vance on Tuesday held off his trip to Pakistan after Iran failed to respond to further talks. "The dollar is strengthening now. The fall in the rupee is due to the global factor, and it is moving in the same direction as the rest of the currencies", the dealer quoted above said. 

 

Higher crude oil prices, despite the truce extension, also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. At 1155 IST, Brent crude prices for June delivery fell slightly to $97.80 against $98.48 a barrel Tuesday. Brent crude oil June futures rose 8.2% from last week. 

 

The RBI likely stepped in to sell dollars to limit the rupee's fall, they said. However, the intervention was not aggressive in nature, they said. "The RBI likely came in at 93.85 level," a dealer at a public-sector bank said.

 

The rupee was also under pressure as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, they said. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 93.60 and 93.90 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 93.90 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Apr 22

 

MUMBAI – At 1113 IST, the rupee was at 93.7775 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 93.7050 a dollar, against the previous close of 93.5000. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	94.00	93.90	93.60	93.50
Private-sector bank	93.95	93.90	93.50	93.40
Private-sector bank	94.15	94.00	93.60	93.50
Foreign bank	94.00	93.80	93.65	93.55
Brokerage firm	94.00	93.90	93.60	93.50

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Down on uncertainty over US-Iran talks, RBI easing some FX curbs

 

	AT 0945 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.7400	93.7050	93.6725	93.7800	93.5000

 

MUMBAI – The rupee opened sharply lower against the dollar in early trade Wednesday as risk sentiment among investors remained weak despite US President Donald Trump's decision to extend the ceasefire with Iran, as uncertainty related to the second-round of peace negotiations between the US and Iran prevailed, dealers said. 

 

"Trump extended the ceasefire, but he also said the US will bomb Iran if its conditions are not met. Can't really trust his statements. Market wants substantial progress indicating an end to the war," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

Trump early Wednesday extended the ceasefire with Iran until the latter submitted a proposal, or until discussions between the two countries were concluded. However, he added that the US will continue to block Iranian ports and coastal routes, thus, keeping the supply disruption intact. At 0932 IST, Brent crude prices for June delivery remained broadly stable at $98.30 against $98.48 a barrel Tuesday. Brent crude June futures touched an intraday high of $99.35 a barrel Wednesday.

 

Further, dealers said demand for dollars has increased after the Reserve Bank of India Monday rolled back some restrictions imposed on foreign exchange trade in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, weighing on the rupee. "The dollar demand will continue now as NDFs are open for corporates," the dealer said. 

 

The RBI withdrew an Apr. 1 circular that barred banks from offering resident and non-resident clients non-deliverable forward contracts. Banks are also now allowed to rebook or cancel such contracts. However, banks will not be allowed to offer derivative contracts to related parties, except for cancellation or rollover of existing contracts.

 

The Nifty 50 and Sensex fell almost 1% in early trade, which also added to the pressure on the Indian currency, dealers said. "There is no reason for the rupee to rise now. Oil is high, indices are also down," a dealer at another private-sector bank said.  

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 93.50 and 93.90 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 93.90 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed as US extends truce but peace talks uncertain

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note against the dollar as investors were cautiously optimistic after US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire till Iran submits a proposal to end the war, but added that the US will continue to block ships passing through Iranian ports and coastal routes.

 

Investors were uncertain about the second round of negotiations after US Vice President J.D. Vance held off his trip to Pakistan as Iran refused to participate in further talks. Although the truce was extended indefinitely, crude oil prices remained close to $100 per barrel and Asian equites traded mixed as disruptions in energy supplies and the threat of escalation in the war remained.

 

The US military Tuesday announced it had boarded a huge Iranian oil tanker at sea in international waters, the first such move against Iran's crude exports. Iran said it will not negotiate while Washington enforces blockade of its ports. At 0819 IST, Brent crude June futures were $98.20 a barrel, slightly down from $98.48 a barrel Tuesday. 

 

The South Korean won rose 0.6% against the dollar, hovering near pre-war levels. The Malaysian ringgit fell 0.1% against the dollar, while the Philippine peso fell 0.2%, most among its Asian peers. The Thai baht was broadly stable ahead of Bank Indonesia's policy decision Wednesday. The central bank is set to keep its key policy rate unchanged, as per a Reuters poll. Thailand's government plans to issue an emergency decree to borrow up to 500 billion baht. Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister Pakorn Nilprapunt said rising external and environmental risks, combined with tight cash balances, make it necessary for emergency borrowing plans.

 

The Taiwan dollar, Singapore dollar, Hong Kong dollar and Chinese yuan were also mostly stable. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Apr 22

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	93.75	93.20
Private-sector bank	93.75	93.30
Foreign bank	93.80	93.20
Foreign bank	93.80	93.25
Brokerage firm	93.75	93.00
Brokerage firm	93.80	93.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

End

 

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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