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Informist, Tuesday, Apr. 21, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee ended at an over three-week low against the dollar Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of India Monday relaxed some of its recent regulatory restrictions on foreign exchange trading in the offshore market, dealers said. Persistent dollar purchases on behalf of importers amid looming uncertainty related to the peace talks between ‌the US and Iran also weighed on the Indian unit, they said. 

 

However, the Indian unit erased a significant portion of its fall as the central bank likely stepped in to sell dollars, dealers said. "There was abundant buying (of dollars) in the market today. Some of the pent up demand played out as the norms were relaxed," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "However, some support was seen around 93.60." 

 

The Indian unit settled at 93.5050 a dollar, 0.4% lower than its previous close of 93.1275. The Indian currency had hit a low of 93.6250 during the day.

 

Post market hours Monday, the RBI withdrew measures issued on Apr. 1 that barred authorised dealers from offering resident and non-resident clients non-deliverable forward contracts involving the rupee. The RBI also rolled back curbs that barred banks from rebooking foreign ‌exchange derivative contracts cancelled after Apr. 1. 

 

However, the RBI said banks cannot undertake any foreign exchange derivative contract involving the rupee with their related parties, except in two cases. Banks can cancel and roll over foreign exchange derivative contracts involving the rupee with their related parties and for transactions with unrelated non-resident users on a back-to-back basis, it said.

 

"It was sort of a knee-jerk reaction to the RBI directions today but I don't think that corporates will go overboard with buying and creating an arbitrage offshore," a dealer at another state-owned bank said. "No one wants to be reckless now. RBI can take charge any time." 

 

Market participants said by withdrawing these curbs, the central bank has restored the space for normal hedging activity by corporates, which includes exporters and importers. However, while corporates may now be able to do arbitrage trades again, the RBI's recent regulatory measures and scrutiny are likely to keep traders cautious and discourage such trades. 

 

"RBI has allowed banks to roll over contracts with related parties as that was affecting foreign banks. The foreign bank parent was unable to cover INR risk arising from transactions with overseas clients with their branch in India," IFA Global said in a note. 

 

Further, banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, fearing a further fall of the Indian unit amid the lingering uncertainty linked to the peace talks between Iran and the US, dealers said. 

 

As the two-week ceasefire is set to expire by Thursday morning, India time, Iranian officials Monday said Tehran was "positively reviewing" its participation in the second round of negotiations, but no final decision has been made yet. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump Monday said he was in no rush to end the conflict, while adding that a deal with Iran could happen "relatively quickly".

 

As banks stepped up their dollar purchases, stop losses on short dollar bets were triggered around the key support level of 93.50 a dollar, which further excacerbated the Indian unit's decline, dealers said.

 

This prompted state-owned banks to sell dollars, likely on behalf of the central bank, which helped the Indian unit recover some of losses, dealers said. However, the likely intervention by the RBI was not aggressive in nature, they said. 

 

A sharp rise in domestic equities also supported the local unit, according to dealers. On Tuesday, the Sensex and Nifty 50 ended 1.0% and 0.9% higher, respectively. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.5050	93.3100	93.2925	93.6250	93.1275
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	284.38	285.73	286.77	283.38	273.83

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums ended higher across tenures Friday after the RBI partially rolled back measures it had undertaken to support a depreciating ‌rupee, dealers said. Premiums rose on expectation that importers will actively step in to buy dollars for forward delivery following the relaxations, dealers said. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.04%, higher than Monday's close of 2.94%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 284.38 paise, against 273.83 paise Monday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Wednesday, the rupee will take cues from the movement in crude oil prices in view of the evolving developments related to the peace talks between Iran and the US as the deadline of the ceasefire approaches, dealers said. Most dealers expect the Indian unit to remain under pressure as long as Brent crude prices stay close to $100 per barrel. The Indian currency may also take cues from movement in the dollar index, they said. 

 

Some dealers expect demand for dollars to pick up following the partial relaxation of foreign exchange curbs by the RBI, weighing on the Indian unit. "For the next two-three weeks, rupee may be under pressure as demand will slowly start increasing," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars amid looming uncertainties related to the war in West Asia, exerting pressure on the Indian unit. Continued FPI outflows may also weigh on the local unit, they said. 

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 93.80 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 93.30-93.80 against the dollar Wednesday.

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India Rupee - World FX:Dlr inches up on uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks

 

	AT 1520 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3502	1.3539	1.3483	1.3529
EUR/USD	1.1757	1.1791	1.1757	1.1787
NZD/USD	0.5901	0.5920	0.5883	0.5882
AUD/USD	0.7151	0.7183	0.7144	0.7175
USD/JPY	159.1810	159.2560	158.7400	158.7420
USD/CAD	1.3659	1.3664	1.3639	1.3643
EUR/JPY	187.1650	187.3365	186.9200	187.0800
CHF/USD	1.2818	1.2854	1.2805	1.2837
EUR/CHF	0.9171	0.9184	0.9169	0.9173

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index inched up as investors are cautious about the mixed signals from the US and Iran on further talks. Both the sides said they were planning to send negotiators to Pakistan this week. At 1450 IST, the dollar index was 98.29, slightly up from 98.05 Monday.

 

US Vice President J.D. Vance was set leave for Pakistan Tuesday for further talks with Iran, according to media reports. However, Iran has refused to join further negotiations after the US Sunday seized Iranian vessel Touska returning from China. The US said Iran's container ship had violated its blockade which has been in effect since last week. At 1449 IST, Brent crude oil futures for June delivery were broadly stable at $95.23 a barrel against $95.48 a barrel Monday.

 

The euro was up 0.1% against the dollar, slightly below the pre-war levels reached last week, on the possibility of a second round of negotiations between the US and Iran.

 

The pound sterling was steady, hovering close to pre-war levels. The Canadian dollar rose 0.3% against the greenback. Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 2.4% in March, sharply up from 1.8% in February as well as market expectation of 2.6%, as higher ‌crude oil costs drove up gasoline prices, data showed Monday. The monthly inflation was at a 14-month high of 1.1% and up from 0.5% in February.

 

The Swiss franc and Swedish krona rose 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, against the US unit. Bucking the trend, the Japanese yen fell 0.1% against the greenback. Market participants are also keeping a close eye on a Senate confirmation hearing of Kevin Warsh, US President Donald Trump's nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, scheduled Tuesday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Remains sharply down; RBI's likely intervention limits fall

 

	AT 1455 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.5375	93.3100	93.2925	93.6250	93.1275

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained sharply lower against the dollar as the RBI partially eased some of the foreign exchange market restriction and also as importers persistently bought dollars, dealers said. However, losses for the Indian unit were limited as the Reserve Bank of India likely intervened through dollar sales, they said. The central bank is likely to have intervened around 93.60 a dollar level, according to dealers.

 

The rupee fell sharply and hit a low of 93.6250 a dollar Tuesday. "If the second round of peace talks between the US-Iran is successful, the rupee will appreciate, but if it doesn't, then rupee might fall to 93.75-93.80 level," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 93.40 and 93.70 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 93.65 a dollar. (Suryash Kumar) 

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India Rupee: Premium up after RBI partially rolls back some FX restrictions

 

	AT 1426 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.5400	93.3100	93.3025	93.6250	93.1275
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	275.67	271.333	275.67	270.00	276.45

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across tenures Friday after the Reserve Bank of India Monday partially rolled back measures it had undertaken to support a depreciating ‌rupee, dealers said. "The RBI's roll back of few restrictions in the offshore market will put pressure on the rupee as it opens doors for hedging and speculations for corporates," a dealer at public-sector bank said. "Earlier, no one could enter NDFs. The RBI has now opened the doors for corporates, so they are hedging." 

 

The RBI after market hours Monday withdrew an Apr. 1 circular that barred banks from offering resident and non-resident clients non-deliverable forward contracts, they said. However, banks are not allowed to offer derivative contracts to related parties, except for cancellation or rollover of existing contracts.

 

The rupee's sharp fall against the dollar in the spot market prompted importers to buy dollars for forward delivery, in fear that the Indian currency may fall further, dealers said. The rupee fell 0.5% against the dollar to a low of 93.6250 Tuesday. However, the RBI's likely dollars sales prevented the Indian unit from falling further, dealers said. "RBI allowed the rupee to fall to some extent, but it came in at 93.60," a dealer at another priavte-sector bank said. 

 

At 1420 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.04%, higher than Monday's close of 2.94%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 284.37 paise, against 273.83 paise Monday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Sharply down as importers buy dlrs, RBI withdraws some FX curbs

 

	AT 1332 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.5375	93.3100	93.3025	93.5500	93.1275

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained sharply lower against the dollar as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, who feared further depreciation of the rupee amid rising tensions between the US and Iran, dealers said. "With Iran denying participation in talks and the deadline for ceasefire nearing, the war will start again, and we will go back to square one. So, importers have started accumulating dollars now," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

As US Vice President J.D. Vance is set to travel to Pakistan Tuesday for the second round of negotiations, Iranian officials Monday said Tehran is "positively reviewing" its participation, but no final decision has been made yet. The Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf Tuesday said Tehran will not participate in any negotiations "under threat" after US President Donald Trump Monday said he will strike Iranian port and bridges if a deal is not reached before the ceasefire ends. 

 

The Indian unit also fell as the Reserve Bank of India rolled back a few restrictions it had imposed on trade in offshore markets. The RBI withdrew an Apr. 1 circular that barred banks from offering resident and non-resident clients non-deliverable forward contracts, they said. However, banks will not be allowed to offer derivative contracts to related parties, except for cancellation or rollover of existing contracts.

 

"Liquidity will come back only if there is speculation. It will slowly start, but right now importers are just hedging," the dealer quoted above said. 

 

However, market participants said the rupee's fall was limited due to the RBI's special window for state-owned oil refiners, which has helped contain volatility. Some dealers still expect the rupee to fall to 94.00 a dollar near-term. "Dont be very hopeful of rupee strengthening. Gradually, the rupee will fall once the measures are removed and oilers (oil companies) are back in market," a dealer at another private-sector bank said.

  

A rise in domestic equity indices also supoorted the rupee, they said. At 1245 IST, the Nifty 50 and Sensex rose nearly 1% Tuesday driven by strong March quarter earnings reported by major banks. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 92.90 and 93.60 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 93.50 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Apr 21

 

MUMBAI – At 1050 IST, the rupee was at 93.3325 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 93.3100 a dollar, against the previous close of 93.1275. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	93.80	93.75	93.25	93.15
Private-sector bank	93.60	93.50	93.20	92.95
Private-sector bank	94.00	93.80	93.30	93.20
Foreign bank	93.60	93.42	93.25	93.10
Brokerage firm	93.70	93.40	93.20	92.90

 

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India Rupee:Sharply down after RBI partially rolls back some FX restrictions

 

	AT 0950 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.3350	93.3100	93.3025	93.3625	93.1275

 

MUMBAI – The rupee opened sharply lower against the dollar Tuesday as the Reserve Bank of India post market hours Monday partially rolled back some of the restrictions imposed on trade in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, dealers said.

 

"With more freedom for hedging, dollar demand is likely to increase in the near term, especially from importers rushing to cover exposures. And that adds another layer of pressure on the rupee," Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex, said.

 

The RBI withdrew an Apr. 1 circular that barred banks from offering resident and non-resident clients non-deliverable forward contracts. Banks are also now allowed to rebook or cancel such contracts. However, restrictions remain in place for related party transactions. Banks will not be allowed to offer derivative contracts to related parties, except for cancellation or rollover of existing contracts.

 

"The volumes traded are more now as RBI opened NDF market now," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "RBI has not rolled back the curbs completely, so depreciation is not as much as the rupee appreciated when RBI had issued the new norms."

 

Dealers said uncertainty over the peace talks between the US and Iran also weighed on the rupee. "There is no clarity on what will happen. Iran has not yet agreed for peace talks. Any progress regarding peace talks impact the rupee," said a dealer at a public-sector bank.

 

As the US delegation led by J.D. Vance is set to travel to Pakistan for the second round of negotiations, Iran is yet to give any confirmation on participation in talks. Iran Monday said it had no plans for negotiations after the US seized Iranian vessel returning from China as part of its blockade which has been in effect since last week. 

 

However, a rise in the domestic equity indices limited the fall for the rupee, dealers said. At 0945 IST, Nifty and Sensex were up nearly 1% Tuesday, in line with sharp gains in Asian peers. 

 

Dealers expect the RBI to step in through dollars in case the Indian unit is headed for excessive depreciation. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 93.40 a dollar. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 92.80 and 93.50 against the greenback. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed as uncertainty looms over US-Iran peace talks

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies traded on a mixed note against the dollar in early trade amid looming uncertainty over the second round of peace talks between the US and Iran scheduled this week. US Vice President J.D. Vance, along with other officials as part of the US delegation, is set to travel to Pakistan Tuesday if Iran agrees to further negotiations. 

 

As the two-week ceasefire is set to expire by Thursday morning, India time, Iranian officials Monday said Tehran is "positively reviewing" its participation in the second round of negotiations, but no final decision has been made yet. The Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tehran will not participate in any negotiations "under threat". Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump Monday said he is in no rush to end the conflict, while adding that a deal with Iran could happen "relatively quickly".

 

Crude oil prices edged lower after it rose 5.6% Monday as the US continued to block Iranian ships, raising fears of further escalation. At 0810 IST, Brent crude June futures were at $94.87 a barrel, down from $95.48 a barrel Monday and sharply up from $90.38 a barrel Friday. 

 

The South Korean won fell 0.1% against the dollar despite local indices opening sharply higher as investors remained bullish on strong corporate earnings. South Korea's newly appointed central bank governor, Shin Hyun-song, said Tuesday the country's monetary policy needed to be cautious and flexible amid heightened inflation ‌and growth uncertainty due to the West Asia conflict.

 

The Singapore dollar, Philippine peso, and Taiwan dollar fell 0.1?ch against the dollar. The Thai baht was broadly stable ahead of the Bank Indonesia's policy decision Wednesday. The central bank is set to keep its key policy rate unchanged, as per a Reuters poll. 

 

The Hong Kong dollar, Malaysian ringgit and Chinese yuan were also broadly stable against the dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Apr 21

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	93.40	92.80
Private-sector bank	93.30	92.80
Private-sector bank	93.30	92.70
Private-sector bank	93.50	92.90
Foreign bank	93.40	92.80
Foreign bank	93.25	92.85
Brokerage firm	93.40	92.75
Brokerage firm	93.25	92.80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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