India Rupee Review
Up as hopes of US, Iran peace deal boost risk appetite
This story was originally published at 17:10 IST on 16 April 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Thursday, Apr. 16, 2026
By Pratiksha
MUMBAI – The rupee ended sharply higher against the dollar Thursday as growing hopes of a peace deal between the US and Iran buoyed risk sentiment among investors and weakened the dollar index, dealers said. However, gains for the Indian unit were limited as oil marketing companies continued to purchase the greenback, they said.
"The market was very rangebound, almost the same as yesterday (Wednesday)," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "The only selling (of dollars) we are seeing is due to the news on war. Other than that, there is still buying (of dollars) going on."
After trading in a range of 18 paise during the day, the rupee settled at 93.1950 on Thursday, almost 0.2% higher than 93.3725 on Wednesday. Other Asian currencies gained 0.1-0.3% against the US currency, with the Taiwan dollar being the best performer.
The Indian unit started the day on a strong footing as US President Donald Trump Wednesday said the US-Israeli war on Iran was "close to over." The White House also expressed optimism about a deal, saying more in-person talks would likely take place in Pakistan again. Adding to the optimism, Trump said in a post on Truth Social that direct talks between Israel and Lebanon will take place on Thursday.
The dollar index remained broadly weak, hitting an over six-week low during the day, as hopes of a peace deal with Iran led traders to let go of some safe-haven positions. This also provided support to the Indian unit, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 98.20, up from 98.05 Wednesday. The index hit a low of 97.83 during the day.
However, banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers to make the most of the relatively lower rupee-dollar levels, which weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. The rupee hit an intraday low of 93.3525 per dollar. However, the dollar purchases were not aggressive, they said.
"While the immediate geopolitical stress has eased, the underlying risks haven't disappeared — especially with oil and inflation still in play. This creates a market that is calm on the surface, but cautious underneath," Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex, said.
Volume in the currency market was subdued, with traders avoiding large bets amid lingering uncertainty over the war in West Asia, dealers said. Volumes have broadly thinned since the imposition of the Reserve Bank of India's latest foreign exchange market norms, they said.
"Liquidity is thin in the market. Earlier, there used to be a lot of arbitrage play happening. Now there is nothing like that," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. The central bank recently tightened its control over banks' foreign exchange positions, citing heightened market volatility and a buildup of positions.
On Mar. 27, the RBI directed authorised dealers to ensure their net open rupee positions in the onshore market do not exceed $100 million at the end of each business day, latest by Apr. 10. It issued more directions on Apr. 1, prohibiting banks from offering rupee non-deliverable derivative contracts to resident or non-resident clients, effective immediately.
Crude oil prices rose in the second half of the session, erasing earlier losses, as investors remained uncertain if the peace talks between the US and Iran would achieve a deal to end the war. This weighed on the Indian unit, they said. Brent crude futures for June delivery rose to $96.17 a barrel at 1530 IST, after settling at $94.93 a barrel Wednesday and $94.79 a barrel Tuesday.
However, the Indian unit rose further in the last leg of trade and hit a high of 93.1750 a dollar.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 93.1950 | 93.2750 | 93.1750 | 93.3525 | 93.3725 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) |
289.55 |
284.94 | 293.15 | 284.94 | 287.74 |
FORWARDS
The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended higher Thursday as banks bought forward dollars on behalf of importers, noting the rupee's appreciation in the spot market, dealers said. The forward dollar buys were not aggressive, they said.
Dealers flagged that the currency market volume was lower than usual, leading to sharp fluctuations in levels. Meanwhile, some banks sold dollars for forward delivery, noting relatively higher levels, which limited gains, they said.
"We have been seeing volatility in forwards due to the liquidity issue," a dealer at a brokerage firm said. "Both paying and receiving are happening. This may continue till the time the market finds its footing again."
Dealers see technical support at 3.20% for the one-year forward premium. The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium ended at 3.11%, up from Wednesday's close of 3.06%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 289.55 paise, up from 287.74 paise Wednesday.
OUTLOOK
On Friday, the rupee will take cues from crude oil price movements amid evolving developments related to the war in West Asia, dealers said. Market participants expect the Indian unit to trade in a tight band, unless there is any major development on the war front.
"I am expecting tomorrow to be similar to today. The rupee has consolidated after the big moves last week," a dealer at another private-sector bank said.
However, most dealers expect the Indian unit to remain under pressure until Brent crude prices remain above $90 per barrel. The Indian currency may also take cues from movement in the dollar index, they said.
Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, fearing further depreciation of the Indian unit amid looming uncertainties related to the war in West Asia, exerting pressure on the Indian unit. FPI outflows may also weigh on the local unit, they said. So far in April, FPIs have sold almost $4.5 billion worth of securities in Indian markets.
However, dealers expect the RBI to step in by selling dollars if the Indian unit depreciates sharply. They expect the RBI to sell dollars if the Indian unit inches closer to 93.40 a dollar.
"USD/INR is likely to find a firm base in the 92.20–92.50 zone. On the upside, the pair may gradually edge higher towards 93.50–94.00 levels as the market rebuilds its directional bias," Pabari said.
Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 93.50 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 93.00-93.50 against the dollar Friday.
India Rupee - World FX: Dollar remains weak on hopes of US-Iran peace talks
| AT 1510 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3544 | 1.3595 | 1.3537 | 1.3560 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1783 | 1.1824 | 1.1777 | 1.1796 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5894 | 0.5922 | 0.5889 | 0.5904 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7171 | 0.7198 | 0.7163 | 0.7168 |
| USD/JPY | 158.9650 | 159.0570 | 158.2680 | 158.9610 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3727 | 1.3739 | 1.3714 | 1.3732 |
| EUR/JPY | 187.3220 | 187.5812 | 187.1050 | 187.5200 |
| CHF/USD | 1.2762 | 1.2823 | 1.2755 | 1.2768 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9231 | 0.9235 | 0.9215 | 0.9230 |
MUMBAI – The dollar index rose slightly Thursday, but hovered near its six-week low as safe-haven demand faded amid rising expectations of a second round of peace talks to end the war in West Asia. US President Donald Trump said Wednesday that the war with Iran is "close to over". Pakistan's military said its Field Marshal Asim Munir, who mediated the first round of talks between the US and Iran, was heading to Tehran to narrow the differences between both the sides. At 1500 IST, the dollar index was at 98.19, up from 98.05 Wednesday. The dollar index fell nearly 1% since the two-week ceasefire was announced. The index hit a six-week low of 97.97 on Tuesday.
The dollar index was supported by uncertainty around reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as the US has blocked the waterway and turned back around 10 vessels since Tuesday. However, Tehran may allow vessels to transit via the Omani side if an agreement is reached to prevent renewed escalation in hostilities.
The euro rose 0.3% against the US unit, returning to pre-war levels. The pound sterling rose 0.3% against the dollar after the UK's GDP growth was up 0.5% in February, higher than market expectations and the biggest increase in two years, the data released Thursday showed. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a much more modest reading of 0.2%. The Japanese yen also rose 0.3% against the greenback. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned of "bold actions" and "firm" responses to the volatile yen. The swiss franc rose 0.3% against the dollar.
The Canadian dollar rose 0.5% against the dollar, hitting a four-week high Thursday. The Swedish krona rose 0.8% against the greenback. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Premium up as importers buy forward dollars noting rupee's rise
| AT 1450 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 93.2700 | 93.2750 | 93.2325 | 93.3525 | 93.3725 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) |
291.35 |
284.93 | 293.15 | 284.94 | 287.74 |
MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose Thursday as banks bought forward dollars on behalf of importers, noting appreciation of the rupee in the spot market, dealers said. However, the forward dollar buys were not aggressive in nature, they said.
The rupee rose 0.1% against the dollar Thursday owing to positive sentiment in the market due to potential peace talks between the US and Iran, they said. US President Donald Trump Wednesday signalled that conflict with Iran has entered the final phase. Iran confirmed on Wednesday that both countries had kept talking via Pakistan after the first round of talks in Islamabad.
However, dealers flagged that volume in the currency market was lower than usual, leading to sharp fluctuations in levels. "The depth of the market has been reduced. Earlier, the market could use NDF instruments. Now any movement in the market is due to plane merchant flows. A deal as small as $200 million could move forward premiums by 5 paise," a dealer at a private sector bank said.
On Mar. 27, the RBI directed authorised dealers to ensure their net open rupee positions in the onshore market do not exceed $100 million at the end of each business day, latest by Apr. 10. It issued more directions on Apr. 1, prohibiting banks from offering rupee non-deliverable derivative contracts to resident or non-resident clients, effective immediately.
Meanwhile, some banks sold dollars for forward delivery, noting the relatively higher levels, which limited gains for premiums, they said. "The market was mostly tepid, but intraday there was a large sell-off, which brought volatility in the forward premium," a dealer at a private bank said.
Dealers see technical support for the one-year forward premium at 3.20%. The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.12% at 1450 IST, up from Wednesday's close of 3.06%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 291.35 paise, against 287.74 paise Wednesday. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Stays up on US-Iran peace talks hope; importers' dlr buys weigh
| AT 1322 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 93.2750 | 93.2750 | 93.2400 | 93.3525 | 93.3725 |
MUMBAI – The rupee remained higher against the dollar as investors were optimistic that the war in West Asia may end soon as the US and Iran weighed up the option of returning to Pakistan for a second round of negotiations, dealers said. However, gains for the Indian unit were limited as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, they said.
"The rupee is driven by sentiment about peace talks now. So far, there are no major developments, everything is dry, so the rupee will remain range bound," a dealer at a public sector bank said. The Indian unit has moved in a range of just 12 paise so far on Thursday.
Risk sentiment among investors improved after US President Donald Trump Wednesday said the war with Iran is 'close to over'. Officials from Pakistan, Iran, and Gulf States also said both sides could return to Islamabad in coming days.
Weakness in the dollar index, which hovered near a six-week low, also supported the rupee, dealers said. At 1232 IST, the dollar index was 98.05, broadly unchanged from Wednesday. The dollar hit a low of 97.83 on Thursday, close to pre-war levels.
However, the Indian unit was weighed by dollar purchases by banks on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, noting the relatively lower rupee-dollar levels, dealers said. The rupee hit an intraday low of 93.3525 a dollar.
"Mostly there is demand (for dollars) from oilers (oil companies). Oil is now around $95 (a barrel), so oilers came in before any escalation happens," said a dealer at a private sector bank. At 1228 IST, Brent crude June futures were $94.97 a barrel, broadly stable from $94.93 a barrel Wednesday. Brent crude futures fell 5% Monday after reports on further negotiations between Iran and the US emerged.
Dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to intervene through dollar sales if the rupee inches closer to 93.40 a dollar, as was the case on Wednesday. "Yesterday (Wednesday),the RBI likely stepped in, and the rupee closed flat. They may come if the rupee falls past the physiologically crucial level of 93.40," the dealer quoted above said.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 93.10 and 93.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 93.10 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Apr 16
MUMBAI - At 1040 IST, the rupee was at 93.3075 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 93.2750 a dollar, against the previous close of 93.3725 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:
| Participants | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| State-owned bank | 93.60 | 93.50 | 93.00 | 92.90 |
| Private-sector bank | 93.60 | 93.55 | 93.10 | 93.00 |
| Foreign bank | 93.60 | 93.50 | 93.15 | 93.00 |
| Brokerage firm | 93.80 | 93.40 | 92.95 | 92.70 |
| Brokerage firm | 93.55 | 93.45 | 93.10 | 92.95 |
(Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Rises on optimism over US-Iran peace deal, fall in dollar index
| AT 1000 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 93.2850 | 93.2750 | 93.2325 | 93.3075 | 93.3725 |
India Rupee: Rises on optimism over US-Iran peace deal, fall in dollar index
MUMBAI – The rupee edged higher against the dollar in early trade Thursday owing to investors' optimism that a peace deal between the US and Iran could be reached soon, dealers said. "All news is positive for now, so like yesterday (Wednesday), the rupee is expected to remain range bound," a dealer at foreign bank said.
US President Donald Trump Wednesday said that the war with Iran is "very close to over" with authorities in Tehran eager to agree on a peace deal. The dollar index fell sharply to an over six-week low, nearing the pre-war levels, which boosted the Indian unit, they said. At 1000 IST, the dollar index was at 97.87, down from 98.05 Wednesday.
A rise in domestic share indices, in line with Asian equities, also supported the Indian unit, dealers said. The Nifty 50 and Sensex were up 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, at 1000 IST.
However, gains for the rupee may be limited as importers are likely to step in to buy dollars, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, they said. "The rupee is at a good level, so importers may come in today. But also I think they may take the risk and wait till the tension in West Asia settles down," a dealer at a public sector bank said.
Dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to intervene through dollar sales in case the rupee inches closer to 93.40, similar to what it did Wednesday. "The main support is 93.40, this is where the RBI came in yesterday (Wednesday), so they may come in again today if the rupee depreciates," the dealer quoted above said.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 93.10 and 93.40 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 93.40 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil )
India Rupee - Asia FX: Most rise on optimism over US-Iran peace talks
MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar in early trade Thursday as investors pinned hopes on US President Donald Trump's comments saying that the war with Iran was "close to over". "I think you are going to watch an amazing two days ahead," he said, as the Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir arrived in Tehran in a bid to end the war and permanently reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Officials from Pakistan, Iran, and Gulf states said both the US and Iran could return to Islamabad in coming days, as per reports.
Asian stocks rose sharply Thursday, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street, as hopes of a US-Iran peace deal grew. This also supported the Asian units. The dollar index fell to an over six-week low Thursday. It was at 97.85 at 0850 IST, against 98.05 on Wednesday and 98.11 on Tuesday.
The Thai Baht rose 0.4% against the US unit, marking the third straight session of gains, on improved risk sentiment among investors. The baht gained most among its Asian peers Thursday and has risen nearly 1% against the dollar since the ceasefire between US and Iran was announced.
The South Korean won and Taiwan dollar rose 0.2?ch against the dollar. The won hit its strongest level in more than a month Thursday as the US dollar edged lower.
The Singapore dollar, Malayasia ringgit, and Philippine peso rose 0.1% against the greenback each. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong dollar and Chinese yuan were broadly flat against the dollar Thursday.
The yuan was flat despite data Thursday showing China's economy grew 5.0% on year in Jan-Mar, beating analysts' expectations. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast the Jan-Mar quarter GDP growth to expand 4.8% on year, compared with a three-year low of 4.5% in Oct-Dec. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Apr 16
MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| Public-sector bank | 93.50 | 93.00 |
| Private-sector bank | 93.50 | 92.70 |
| Private-sector bank | 93.40 | 93.10 |
| Foreign bank | 93.50 | 92.80 |
| Brokerage firm | 93.22 | 93.00 |
| Brokerage firm | 93.50 | 93.00 |
| Brokerage firm | 93.55 | 92.95 |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Saji George Titus
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