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Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 15, 2026

By Pratiksha

MUMBAI – The rupee gave up all its early gains and settled broadly unchanged against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India's likely active intervention through dollar sales ensured the Indian unit did not depreciate against the greenback, they said. 

The Indian unit hit a high of 93.1275 a dollar earlier in the day but went on to settle at 93.3725 a dollar on Wednesday, almost flat against 93.3750 on Monday. The currency market was closed on Tuesday.

Other Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.4% against the dollar Wednesday, with the Philippine peso being the worst hit. The Indian unit emerged better placed compared with its peers. 

"In the second half, the market was moving sideways with no clear direction. There were both offers (dollar sales) and bids (dollar buying) in the market," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "I think 93.50 will hold for sometime, unless something major happens overnight."

The Indian unit started the day on a strong footing, boosted by improved risk sentiment among investors as crude oil prices declined on hopes of another round of peace talks between the US and Iran, dealers said. 

US President Donald Trump Tuesday said talks to end the war with Iran could resume in Pakistan over the next two days. His statement came after the failure of negotiations over the weekend led to Washington imposing a blockade on Iranian ports. Brent crude futures for June delivery was at $95.17 a barrel at 1530 IST, after settling at $94.79 a barrel Tuesday and $99.36 a barrel Monday. The dollar index was at 98.20 at 1530 IST, against 98.11 on Tuesday and 98.37 on Monday. The index hit a six-week low of 97.97 on Tuesday.

A sharp rise in domestic equities also supported the rupee, dealers said. On Wednesday, both the Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 1.6% higher each. A fall in the dollar index also provided support to the Indian unit, they said. 

However, shortly after the market opened, banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of oil and other importers, in order to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, which helped the Indian unit erase gains, they said. "There is no scarcity of dollar demand in the market. Obviously," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "I think people are taking Trump's statements with a pinch of salt."

Meanwhile, state-owned banks stepped in to sell dollars around 93.40 a dollar, likely on behalf of the central bank, which supported the Indian unit, they said. However, the RBI's likely dollar sales were not aggressive in nature, they said. 

Volume in the currency market was lower than usual as traders avoided placing large bets owing to lingering uncertainty related to the war in West Asia, as per dealers. "Volumes have in general thinned after RBI's (FX) directions. People are also avoiding holding large positions as no one knows which direction the war will go anytime," a dealer at a brokerage firm said.

On Mar. 27, the RBI directed authorised dealers to ensure their net open rupee positions in the onshore market do not exceed $100 ‌million at the end of each business day, latest by Apr. 10. It issued more directions on Apr. 1, prohibiting banks from offering rupee non-deliverable derivative contracts to resident or non-resident clients, effective immediately. 

Meanwhile, data released Wednesday showed India's trade deficit surprisingly fell to $20.67 billion in March from $21.69 billion a year ago, despite the ongoing war in West Asia disrupting trade across the region. This supported the Indian unit, dealers said. 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended lower Wednesday as banks sold dollars for forward delivery, noting the relatively higher levels, dealers said. So far this month, the one-year forward premium has risen almost 20 basis points as on Wednesday.  

"Banks are doing interest rate arbitrage, I guess. Forwards are much higher than implied by OIS (Overnight Indexed Swap) and SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) interest rates," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

The one-year forward premium hit a near four-year high last week as banks persistently bought forward dollars on behalf of importers after the rupee appreciated sharply in the spot market. This was after the RBI announced measures to curb volatility in the market, prompting banks to unwind arbitrage trade between the onshore market and the non-deliverable forward market. The rupee has appreciated over 1.5% against the dollar since the central bank issued directions for the foreign exchange segment.  

Meanwhile, a fall in US Treasury yields after a softer-than-expected producer price index print and a decline in crude oil prices supported premiums, they said. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.26% Tuesday from 4.30% Monday.

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.06% at 1530 IST, down from Monday's close of 3.15%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 287.74 paise, against 294.14 paise Monday.

OUTLOOK

On Thursday, the rupee will take cues from movement in crude oil prices in view of evolving developments related to the West Asia war, dealers said. Most expect the Indian unit to remain under pressure till the time Brent crude prices remain above $90 per barrel. 

"Oil prices need to come back to $80 (a barrel) something levels for market to calm down," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Till the time that doesn't happen, buy (dollars) on dips (in dollar-rupee) sentiment will continue."

Meanwhile, Associated Press Wednesday reported citing regional officials that mediators have moved closer to extending the ceasefire between the US and Iran and restarting negotiations to salvage the fragile truce before it expires next week. The US and Iran have given an "in principle agreement" to extend the ceasefire to allow for more diplomacy, it said. This is expected to support the Indian unit. 

The Indian unit may also take cues from movement in the dollar index, they said. Amid the looming uncertainties related to the West Asia war, importers are likely to continue buying dollars, fearing depreciation of the Indian unit, exerting pressure on the Indian unit, dealers said. Sustained FPI outflows are also likely to be a pain point for the Indian unit, they said. 

However, the central bank is expected to continue stepping in through dollar sales, in case the Indian unit is headed for sharp depreciation, especially after looking at its intervention on Wednesday. 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 93.50 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 93.00-93.50 against the dollar Thursday. 

India Rupee: Premiums fall as banks sell fwd dollars noting higher levels

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell sharply Wednesday as banks sold dollars for forward delivery, noting the relatively higher levels, dealers said. So far this month, the one-year forward premium has risen almost 20 basis points as on Wednesday.  

"It is good that levels are cooling off now. Banks had overpaid their positions," a dealer at a foreign bank said. "Levels seem to be correcting now. They have been elevated for a long time now."  

The one-year forward premium hit a near four-year high last week as banks persistently bought forward dollars on behalf of importers after the rupee appreciated sharply in the spot market. This was after the Reserve Bank of India announced measures to curb volatility in the market, prompting banks to unwind arbitrage trade between the onshore market and the non-deliverable forward market. The rupee has appreciated over 1.5% against the dollar since the central bank issued directions for the foreign exchange segment.  

Meanwhile, a fall in US Treasury yields after a softer-than-expected producer price index print and a decline in crude oil prices supported premiums, they said. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.26% Tuesday from 4.30% Monday.

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.05% at 1430 IST, down from Monday's close of 3.15%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 286.53 paise, against 294.14 paise Monday. (Pratiksha) 

India Rupee: Erases gains as oil cos buy dlrs; RBI's dollar sales support

MUMBAI – The rupee erased all early gains against the dollar as banks bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India likely intervened through dollar sales, which supported the Indian unit, they said.

"There's buying (of dollars) from oilers (oil marketing companies) across levels," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "This was very much expected. But we are seeing offers (dollar selling) from other side as well."

The central bank likely intervened through dollar sales around 93.40 a dollar, which kept the Indian unit from falling, dealers said. "93.40 is being held for the second day now. It looks like RBI is holding that level," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.

The rupee rose to 93.1275 a dollar earlier in the day as risk sentiment among investors improved after crude oil prices declined on hopes of another round of peace talks between the US and Iran, they said. Brent crude futures for June delivery was $94.86 a barrel at 1340 IST, after settling at $94.79 a barrel Tuesday and $99.36 a barrel Monday.

A sharp rise in domestic equities also supported the rupee, dealers said. At 1340 IST, the Nifty 50 and Sensex were up 1.6% each. However, volume in the currency market was lower than usual as traders avoided placing large bets owing to lingering uncertainty related to the war in West Asia.

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 93.20 and 93.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 93.40 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Apr 15

MUMBAI - At 1155 IST, the rupee was at 93.3800 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 93.1700 a dollar, against the previous close of 93.3750 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

(Divya Moolayattil)

India Rupee: Sharply up as oil prices fall on hopes of US-Iran peace talks

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar early Wednesday as risk appetite among investors improved and oil prices fell after US President Donald Trump Tuesday said a second round of negotiations with Iran could begin in a couple of days, dealers said. 

"The rupee has risen around 21 paise from Monday due to the positive developments in West Asia war," a dealer at a public-sector bank said. "Going ahead, the rupee will remain range-bound unless a major announcement from the US or Iran comes in." 

Brent crude June futures fell over 4% Tuesday. At 0900 IST, Brent crude June futures were $95.09 a barrel, slightly up from $94.79 a barrel but sharply down from $99.36 a barrel on Monday.

However, dealers expect importers to step in to buy dollars, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, which could limit the gains for the Indian unit. "Importers will flock in to buy dollars if there is any significant progress on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Otherwise, importer demand will be as expected," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.

The Indian unit was also supported by a sharp rise in domestic indices, they said. The Nifty 50 and Sensex opened sharply higher and were up 1.6%, as on 1000 IST. Asian equities also rose, tracking gains on the Wall Street. 

The dollar index fell to a six-week low Tuesday, which supported the Indian unit, they said. At 1000 IST, the dollar index was at 98.15, slightly up from 98.11 Tuesday but down from 98.37 Monday. The index hit a low of 97.97 on Tuesday.

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 93.00 and 93.40 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 93.00 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed amid hopes of fresh US-Iran peace talks

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded mixed against the dollar amid looming uncertainty related to the war in West Asia. However, risk sentiment among investors improved after US President Donald Trump said peace talks with Iran could resume in "next two days."

Brent crude oil prices fell as supply disruption fears eased on hopes of diplomatic progress in the war, even though supply concerns persisted as the US continued to block ships passing through Iranian ports. Tuesday, over 20 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, but a few tankers, including Chinese ships blacklisted by the US, were forced to take a U-turn and enter through Gulf of Oman, reports said. At 0915 IST, Brent crude futures for June delivery were at $95.05 a barrel, slightly up from $94.79 a barrel Tuesday but sharply down from $99.36 a barrel Monday. 

Most Asian countries are vulnerable to a rise in oil prices as they rely heavily on imports, fuelling concerns over inflation and a potential economic slowdown. The South Korean won fell 0.2% against the dollar after hitting a one-month high Tuesday. South Korea is one of the top oil importers in the world, with over 70% of its crude oil imports coming from the Gulf. The Taiwan dollar fell 0.3% against the dollar. 

The Chinese yuan, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah and Hong Kong dollar were broadly stable against the greenback. Data released Tuesday showed China's export growth fell to a six-month low in March as the West Asia war hit global demand outlook, while imports posted their strongest growth in more than four years.

However, the Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit rose nearly 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively, against the US unit. The International Monetary Fund, in its latest forecast, projected Malayasia's GDP growth to slow to 3.1% in 2026 after rising to 3.4% in 2025. (Divya Moolayattil) 

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Apr 15

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

(Divya Moolayattil)

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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