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Informist, Monday, Apr. 13, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended at a two-week low against the dollar Monday as crude oil prices jumped and risk sentiment among investors soured after peace talks between the US and Iran failed and as the US Navy prepared a blockade of Iranian ports, dealers said. 

 

"The market was taking cues from the global happenings. There was nothing else going on," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "However, volumes were a bit thin today."

 

The Indian currency declined for the third consecutive trading day and settled at 93.3750 a dollar on Monday, 0.7% lower than its previous close of 92.7275 on Friday. The Indian unit emerged as the worst performer amongst its Asian peers, which fell 0.3-0.6% against the dollar.

 

The rupee began the day on a weaker note as crude oil prices were back above $100 a barrel on Monday as the US Navy prepared ‌to block ships to and from Iran through the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could halt Iranian oil exports, after Washington and Tehran failed to reach a deal over the weekend to end the war.

 

US President Donald Trump said Sunday the US Navy would start blockading the Strait of Hormuz, after negotiators failed to reach a peace deal with Iran. The US Central Command forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on Monday at 1930 IST. Brent crude futures for June delivery rose to $102.40 a barrel at 1530 IST, after settling at $95.20 a barrel Friday.

 

Risk appetite among investors also took a beating amid growing uncertainty as hopes of an early settlement of the war and opening of the Strait of Hormuz faded. Banks likely bought dollars on behalf of foreign portfolio investors, looking to pull out funds from Indian markets, which weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. On Monday, the Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 0.9% lower each. So far in April, FPIs have withdrawn around $4.32 billion worth of funds from the Indian market.

 

However, volume in the currency market was lower than usual as traders avoided placing fresh bets, waiting for further developments related to the West Asia war. Some market participants also avoided large bets fearing further regulatory actions by the Reserve Bank of India in the foreign exchange market to control the Indian unit's slide.     

 

"Markets are avoiding large positions because there is a fear of more regulatory actions by RBI," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "The last time market had gone too long (on dollar), the outcome was not very good. Everybody remembers."

 

The Indian unit had appreciated over 2% in the last two weeks as the RBI issued directions for the foreign exchange segment to curb heightened volatility and build-up of arbitrage positions. On Mar. 27, the RBI directed banks to ensure that net open rupee positions in the onshore market do not exceed $100 ‌million at the end of each business day, latest by Apr. 10.

 

As banks scrambled to unwind arbitrage positions in the offshore market, the Indian unit recieved a boost due to a stream of dollar supply in the onshore market. However, with the deadline of Apr. 10 passing, the Indian unit was back to tracking global cues from Monday, they said, 

 

A rise in the dollar index and weakness in other Asian currencies also weighed on the local unit, they said. The dollar index was at 98.99 at 1530 IST, against 98.70 on Friday and 98.79 on Thursday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.3750	93.2800	93.2525	93.4075	92.7275
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	294.14	310.38	310.38	293.39	296.30

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar rupee forward premium ended lower Monday due to a rise in US Treasury yields and reduced demand for forward dollars from importers, as they had booked sufficient forward dollars in the previous week, dealers said. Importers actively bought forward dollars last two weeks as the rupee appreciated sharply. 

 

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields edged higher on Monday as the breakdown of negotiations between Iran and the US clouded the inflation outlook once again. The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.15% at 1530 IST, down from Friday's close of 3.20%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 294.14 paise, against 296.30 paise Friday.

 

OUTLOOK

The currency market is closed Tuesday for Babasaheb Ambedkar Jayanti. On Wednesday, the rupee will take cues from movement in crude oil prices in view of evolving developments related to the West Asia war, dealers said. The Indian unit may also take cues from movement in the dollar index, they said.  

 

"I think the market will continue to track what is happening on the war front but we may see most of the impact on the opening levels only," a dealer at another state-owned bank said. "During the day volumes may remain dull as people are treading with caution after the RBI actions." 

 

Amid the looming uncertainties related to the West Asia war, importers are likely to continue buying dollars, fearing further depreciation of the Indian unit, exerting pressure on the Indian unit, dealers said. Sustained FPI outflows are also likely to be a pain point for the Indian unit, they said. 

 

"With NOP (net open position)-related flows now behind us and global uncertainties rising, the room for further rupee appreciation appears limited," Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex, said in a note. "USD/INR is likely to find a base in the 92.20–92.50 range, with a gradual move towards 93.50–94.00 levels."

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 93.50 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 93.00-93.60 against the dollar Wednesday. 

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India Rupee – World FX: Dollar up on safe-haven demand as US-Iran talks fail

 

	AT 1526 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3430	1.3434	1.3381	1.3455
EUR/USD	1.1688	1.1701	1.1662	1.1730
NZD/USD	0.5828	0.5841	0.5796	0.5832
AUD/USD	0.7047	0.7059	0.6988	0.7065
USD/JPY	159.7320	159.8520	159.5570	159.2500
USD/CAD	1.3842	1.3877	1.3841	1.3841
EUR/JPY	186.6900	186.8106	185.9850	186.7988
CHF/USD	1.2654	1.2708	1.2604	1.2664
EUR/CHF	0.9236	0.9265	0.9229	0.9258

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index recovered Monday as investors returned to the safe-haven asset after the 21-hour negotiation between the US and Iran concluded without an agreement on ending the war. At 1500 IST, the dollar index was at 99.00, up from 98.69 Friday. 

 

The surge in oil prices also continued to fuel fears of rising inflation. Crude oil prices jumped over 8% Monday after US President Donald Trump said the US Navy would block the Strait of Hormuz and destroy mines that the Iranians had laid in the strait. At 1453 IST, Brent crude May futures were $102.95 a barrel, up from $95.20 a barrel Friday. 

 

The euro fell 0.2% against the dollar from a six-week high on Friday as risk-off sentiment gained traction after hopes of a near-term end to the war diminished. The pound sterling and Japanese yen fell 0.3% against the dollar.

 

The Canadian dollar fell 0.3% against the US unit. The Swiss franc and Swedish krona rose 0.4 and 0.7% against the dollar, respectively. 

 

Investors await the US Producer Price Index data for March, which will be released on Tuesday. The US consumer price index increased 0.9% in March, hitting a four-year high from 0.3% rise in February, according to US Labor Department data released on Friday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: 1-yr premium tad down due to reduced demand from importers

 

	AT 1415 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.3775	93.2800	93.2800	93.4075	92.7275
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	293.39	310.38	310.38	293.39	296.29

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar rupee forward premium fell Monday due to reduced demand for forward dollars from importers, as they had booked sufficient forward dollars in the previous week, dealers said. "Last week, importers got the rupee at a good level. Now they are mostly absent in the market, that is why the forward premiums are down," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

Dealers said premiums were down as the spread between the spot market and near-term premiums was too high. The spread between spot and two-month forward premium forwards rose to 60 paise earlier in the session, before falling to 56 paise at 1436 IST. 

 

Foreign portfolio investors were selling shares amid uncertainty over the ceasefire of two weeks agreed upon by the US and Iran last week, dealers said, which also exerted pressure on the rupee and weighed on forward premiums. So far in April, foreign investors have withdrawn around $4.32 billion worth of funds from the Indian market. The Nifty 50 and Sensex fell around 1% Monday, which continued to weigh on the rupee. "In the renewed uncertain situation, FPIs (Foreign portfolio investors) are again likely to continue selling in India in the near term," said Geojit Investments Ltd.

 

The rupee plunged in the spot market and remained firm around 93.30 a dollar throughout the day. "The volumes are down today. There was importers' demand earlier, now that has also subsided," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.14% at 1414 IST, down from Friday's close of 3.20%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 293.39 paise, against 296.30 paise Friday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Stays sharply down as crude up; trader cautious amid W Asia war

 

	AT 1300 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.3025	93.2800	93.2800	93.4075	92.7275

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained sharply lower against the dollar as crude oil prices surged Monday after peace talks between the US and Iran failed to end in an agreement, the dealers said. "Market sentiment has turned cautious after the peace deal failed and after Trump's comments," a dealer at a foreign bank said. The Indian unit fell over 0.6% against the dollar Monday. 

 

US President Donald Trump Sunday said the US navy will block ships transiting through Iranian ports. "No one who pays illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas...Any Iranian who fires at us or at peaceful vessel, will be blown to hell," Trump said in a post on Truth Social. Brent crude May futures rose over 8% to $103.64 a barrel at 1230 IST.

 

The rupee reverted to being on a weaker footing after appreciating for the past two weeks. The Indian unit had appreciated over 2% in the past two weeks as banks unwound arbitrage positions between non-deliverable forwards and onshore markets to meet the Reserve Bank of India's new onshore net open position norms. "RBI's new norms supported the rupee. Now, there is no support factor, so the rupee is exposed to global tensions," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

Traders exercised caution and remained in a "wait-and-watch mode" amid growing uncertainties related to the war in West Asia, dealers said. "There aren't many major deals happening right now. Both importers and exporters are assessing the developments of the West Asia war", the dealer quoted above said. 

 

A sharp fall in domestic equities put pressure on the rupee, they said. At 1200 IST, the Sensex and the Nifty were down over 1%. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 93.20 and 93.60 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 93.50 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Slumps as oil jumps after Trump vows to block Strait of Hormuz

 

--Rupee slumps as crude prices jump after US-Iran peace talks fail  

 

	AT 1009 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.3825	93.2800	93.2800	93.4075	92.7275

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply against the dollar in early trade as crude oil prices surged after US President Donald Trump Sunday threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz after the peace talks between the US and Iran failed to reach a deal to end the war. "The rupee will follow the global factors today. We will see around 93.60 (a dollar) today. 94.00 (a dollar) is unlikely as the RBI would not want that," said a dealer at a foreign bank. The rupee fell 68 paise from the previous day to a low of 93.4075.   

 

Crude oil prices jumped over 7% Monday after Trump's comments. At 0910 IST, Brent crude May futures were at $102.20 a barrel, sharply up from $95.20 a barrel Friday. A rise in the dollar index also put pressure on the rupee, they said. At 0910 IST, the dollar index was at 99.03, up from 98.69 Friday.

 

However, dealers expect importers to buy dollars, fearing more depreciation of the Indian unit from the current levels, putting further downward pressure on the rupee. "This is a good level for importers. They may come in as the day advances," said a dealer at a public sector bank. 

 

Domestic equity indices opened sharply lower Monday, weighing on the rupee, dealers said. At 0907 IST, the Sensex and Nifty were down 2%. Foreign portfolio investors are expected to continue selling shares amid uncertainty over the ceasefire of two weeks agreed upon by the US and Iran last week. So far in April, FPIs have withdrawn around $4.32 billion worth of funds from the Indian market.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 93.20 and 93.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 93.50 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as oil jumps after US-Iran peace talks fail

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies fell against the dollar in early trade Monday as oil prices soared after US President Donald Trump Sunday said the US will block ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, after negotiations between the US and Iran failed to reach a deal to end the war. Investors were worried that that failed negotiations could jeopardise a fragile two-week ceasefire between the two countries.

 

Trump said in a post on Truth Social, "Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz...Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!" Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said the country will not bow to any threats." If you fight, we will fight, and if you come forward with logic, we will deal with logic. We will not bow to any threats, let them test our will once again so that we can teach them a bigger lesson." 

 

Most Asian countries are vulnerable to the changes in oil prices as they rely heavily on imports. The crude oil prices rose over 7% in early trade Monday. At 0910 IST, Brent crude was at $102.20 a barrel, sharply up from $95.20 a barrel.

 

A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Asian currencies. Asian stocks fell in early trade Monday after investors' hopes of the war ending soon diminished after Trump and Iran officials exchanged threats to strike and escalate the war further. 

 

The Thai baht and Philippine peso slumped 0.8% against the dollar, the most amongst their peers. The Singapore dollar, Malayasia ringgit, and Taiwan dollar fell 0.2% against the US unit. Taiwan's central bank said Saturday the country's inflation remains under control, despite rising global energy prices due to war in West Asia.

 

The South Korean won was down 0.3% against the dollar while the Indonesian rupiah was down 0.1%. Bucking the trend, the Chinese yuan and Hong Kong dollar were broadly stable against the greenback. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Apr 13

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	93.30	92.90
Public-sector bank	93.60	92.80
Private-sector bank	93.30	92.80
Private-sector bank	93.30	92.80
Private-sector bank	93.40	92.85
Foreign bank	93.50	92.60
Brokerage firm	93.60	93.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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