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Informist, Friday, Apr. 10, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased all early gains and settled lower against the dollar for the second consecutive trading day Friday as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and importers amid uncertainties related to the durability of the two-week West Asia ceasfire, dealers said. A rise in crude oil prices also weighed on the Indian unit, they said.   

 

The Indian unit rose sharply in early trade as banks unwound their residual arbitrage trades between the non-deliverable forwards and onshore markets, with Friday marking the last day to comply with the Reserve Bank of India's direction, they said. 

 

After hitting a high of 92.4050 a dollar earlier in the day, the rupee settled at 92.7275 on Friday, lower than 92.6575 on Thursday. The Indian unit appreciated 0.4% against the dollar this week owing to the RBI's recent regulatory measures in the foreign exchange segment. 

 

While banks had already cut down on a majority of their abritrage positions, the Indian unit started the day slightly higher against the greenback as banks looked to trim the rest of their positions. "I think 90% of the arbitrage was already unwound, rest of it got squared off today," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

The Indian unit found support from the unwinding throughout the day, as it rose sharply to 92.4050, dealers said. On Mar. 27, the RBI directed authorised dealers to ensure their net open rupee positions in the onshore market do not exceed $100 ‌million at the end of each business day, latest by Apr. 10.

 

However, banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, weighing on the local unit, they said. Investors expect the rupee to weaken further going ahead, especially now that the stream of dollar supply on the back of central bank's rules will come to a halt. 

 

"There is no source of dollar inflow in the market currently and with the unwinding also done, market will practically return to old demand-supply dynamics," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

Risk sentiment among investors remains dampened as the US accused Iran of breaching promises on the Strait of Hormuz and Israel struck Lebanon with attacks that Iran has ‌claimed violate the truce. This has jeopardised the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, struck on Wednesday. So far in April, FPIs have withdrawn around $3.96 billion worth of funds from the Indian market. 

 

Crude oil prices inched up on Friday, weighing on the local unit, according to dealers. Brent crude futures for June delivery traded at $96.69 a barrel at 1530 IST, after settling at $95.92 a barrel Thursday. 

 

Meanwhile, a sharp rise in domestic equities provided some respite to the local currency, they said. On Friday, the Sensex and Nifty 50 ended 1.2% higher each.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.7275	92.5700	92.4050	92.7625	92.6575
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	296.30	294.91	302.86	293.23	296.95

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended off its day's high Friday as banks sold forward dollars during the last leg of trade to unwind their residual arbitrage positions to comply with the RBI's onshore net open position norms, dealers said. Premiums had risen during the day as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing further weakness of the rupee, they said. 

 

Dealers said importers also bought forward dollars, noting the relatively lower forward premium levels. The one-year forward premium has fallen almost 70 bps from the near four-year high of 3.94% it hit on Monday.

 

After hitting a high of 3.27% during the day, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium ended at 3.20% at 1530 IST, unchanged from Thursday's close. On an absolute basis, the premium was 296.30 paise, against 296.95 paise Thursday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Monday, the rupee will take cues from movement in crude oil prices after the proposed talks between Iran and the US on Saturday, dealers said. Iranian negotiators are due to meet a delegation led by US Vice President J.D. Vance on Saturday for the first peace talks of the war, as per media reports.

 

Market participants will closely monitor developments related to the war in West Asia over the weekend, dealers said. The Indian unit may also take cues from movement in the dollar index after the release of the US inflation data later in the day. 

 

With the deadline for RBI's foreign exchange position norms coming to an end on Friday, dealers expect the rupee to track overseas developments more actively from next week. "I think the impact of global cues will become a bit more pronounced from next week," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Liquidity in the market will thin considerably. This may lead to more sharp moves." 

 

Amid the lingering uncertainties related to the West Asia war, importers are likely to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee rate, exerting pressure on the Indian unit, dealers said. Sustained FPI outflows are also likely to be a pain point for the Indian unit, they said. 

 

"The rupee will remain in the range of 92-93 on Monday with market awaiting ceasefire talks and RBI's next steps in the coming days," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 93.00 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 92.50-93.00 against the dollar Monday. A breach of 93.00 a dollar may gradually push the Indian unit towards 93.50, dealers said. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index inches up amid West Asia uncertainty

 

	AT 1519 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3434	1.3437	1.3411	1.3430
EUR/USD	1.1701	1.1710	1.1678	1.1701
NZD/USD	0.5841	0.5863	0.5833	0.5859
AUD/USD	0.7064	0.7086	0.7054	0.7080
USD/JPY	159.2630	159.3730	158.9740	159.0080
USD/CAD	1.3837	1.3844	1.3816	1.3810
EUR/JPY	186.3600	186.4410	185.9480	186.0500
CHF/USD	1.2658	1.2678	1.2636	1.2656
EUR/CHF	0.9244	0.9252	0.9228	0.9244

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose marginally on Friday and remained firm near 99, as investors were cautious amid uncertainty over the ceasefire talks between the US and Iran. Iran said it will not participate in the negotiations with the US if Israel does not halt strikes on Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to strike Hezbollah in Lebanon, hours after he said his country would start negotiations with the Lebanese government to disarm the group. At 1424 IST, the dollar index was 98.92, marginally up from 98.79 Thursday.

 

Data from the US showed consumer spending barely rose in February amid fears of persistent inflation due to the war in West Asia. The number of Americans applying for jobless claims in the week ended Apr. 4 jumped by 16,000 to 219,000 from the previous week's 203,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

 

The euro rose nearly 1% on Friday before erasing gains, as investors awaited developments in the US-Iran ceasefire talks. The inflation rate in Germany, the bloc's largest economy, was over 2.7% in March, the highest since January 2024 and above the 1.9% recorded in February, according to data released by the German Federal Statistical Office on Friday. 

 

The Japanese yen fell 0.1% against the US dollar. The pound sterling and Swiss franc were broadly flat against the dollar. Bucking the trend, the Swedish krona was down 0.1% against the greenback. Investors await the US core CPI data for March, due later in the day. (Divya Moolayattil) 

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India Rupee: Premium inches up as banks buy forward dollars for importers

 

	AT 1422 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.7050	92.5700	92.4050	92.7625	92.6575
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	299.91	294.91	302.86	294.18	296.95

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose Friday as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, dealers said. "Since today is the last day for unwinding arbitrage positions, importers are rushing to hedge their payables and paying in forwards," a dealer from a public sector bank said. 

 

With the dollar supply in the currency market on the back of the Reserve Bank of India's recent foreign exchange norms coming to a halt after Friday, dealers expect the rupee to weaken in the near term as the impact of developments related to the war in West Asia will take centre stage. Dealers said importers also bought forward dollars, noting the relatively lower forward premium levels. The one-year forward premium has fallen almost 70 bps from the near four-year high of 3.94% it hit on Monday.

 

The rise in premiums was limited as banks sold forward dollars to unwind their residual arbitrage positions to comply with the RBI's norms that direct banks to cap onshore net open rupee position at $100 million by Friday, dealers said. They see technical support for the one-year forward premium at 3.40%.

 

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.23% at 1422 IST, up from Thursday's close of 3.20%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 299.91 paise, against 296.95 paise Thursday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Falls, erases gains as banks heavily buy dollars for importers

 

	AT 1250 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.7475	92.5700	92.4050	92.7625	92.6575

 

MUMBAI – The rupee shed all early gains and fell against the dollar as banks heavily bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, dealers said. The Indian unit had risen sharply earlier in the day as banks sold dollars to unwind remaining arbitrage positions between non-deliverable forwards and the onshore market, they said.

 

"In the morning we saw a lot of selling (of dollars), banks are almost done (unwinding). There are oilers (oil marketing companies) and corporate bids (dollar buying) in the market now," a dealer at a public sector bank said. The Indian unit rose to a high of 92.4050 a dollar earlier in the day, but fell to 92.7500 as at 1250 IST. 

 

Importers bought dollars to make the most of the rupee's rise earlier in the day, as they fear the Indian currency may weaken sharply going ahead, dealers said. 

 

With the dollar supply in the market on the back of the Reserve Bank of India's recent foreign exchange norms coming to a halt after Friday, market participants expect geopolitical factors to drive the rupee's direction now. The central bank's latest rule mandates all authorised dealers to trim their onshore net open positions to $100 million by Friday. 

 

Risk sentiment among investors remains dampened as Israel continues to attack Lebanon, putting the ceasefire talks between the US and Iran at risk. Israel said it will strike Iran until north security is restored. The US and Iran are set to meet in Pakistan for negotiations on Saturday. However, Iran said it will not participate until Israel halts attacks in Lebanon. According to media reports, Iran's senior officials have not travelled to Pakistan to negotiate with the US. 

 

A rise in crude oil prices also exerted downward pressure on the Indian unit, dealers said. At 1224 IST, Brent crude June futures were $97.75 a barrel, up from $95.92 a barrel Thursday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 92.30 and 92.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.80 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Apr 10

 

MUMBAI – At 1045 IST, the rupee was at 92.7050 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 92.5700 a dollar, against the previous close of 92.6575 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	93.00	92.80	92.30	92.20
Private-sector bank	93.00	92.70	92.40	92.30
Private-sector bank	-	92.80	92.30	-
Foreign bank	93.00	92.80	92.50	92.30
Brokerage firm	93.15	92.95	92.25	92.15
Brokerage firm	92.90	92.75	92.40	92.20

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Rises sharply as banks unwind remaining arbitrage positions

 

	AT 1000 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.5075	92.5700	92.4150	92.5925	92.6575

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply in early trade as banks continued to sell dollars to unwind their remaining arbitrage positions between non-deliverable forwards and onshore market to meet the Reserve Bank of India's Friday deadline. "Most of the banks have squared their positions. The last few will be sold today, most likely by foreign banks," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

The central bank's latest rule, which mandates all authorised dealers to trim their onshore net open positions to $100 million by Friday, has been a major source of support to the rupee this week. Dealers said banks have likely cut down on a majority of their abritrage positions to adhere to the RBI's directions. 

 

However, dealers said gains for the Indian currency are expected to be limited due to uncertainty over the durability of the US-Iran ceasefire. Israel called the Lebanese government for direct negotiation Thursday even as they continued to strike Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel's strikes killed more than 300 people and injured thousands. "The rupee has risen now, but we will see where the rupee stands after we see results of the RBI's deadline and negotiations between the US and Iran," said a dealer at a foreign bank. 

 

A slight rise in crude oil prices also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. At 0949 IST, Brent crude June futures were $96.29 a barrel, up from $95.92 a barrel. However, a sharp rise in domestic equities provided support to the Indian unit, they said. At 1015 IST, the Sensex and Nifty 50 were up 0.9?ch.  

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 92.30 and 92.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 92.30 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed amid W Asia ceasefire concerns; Thai baht down

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note against the dollar Friday as investors were uncertain about the durability of the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, struck on Wednesday, after Israel continued to strike Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the country will continue to strike Hezbollah even as he called the Lebanese government for negotiations. "We will continue to hit Hezbollah wherever necessary, until we fully restore security to the residents of the north," he said in a post on X.  

 

The US and Iran are set to meet Saturday for negotiations on a peace deal, but Iran said it will not participate in the talks unless Israel calls for a truce in Lebanon. US President Donald Trump called out Iran for not opening the Strait of Hormuz fully. "Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable, some would say, of allowing oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have!" he said in a post on Truth Social. According to media reports, only 7 ships passed through the key waterway compared to 135 before the war in West Asia began. 

 

The Thai baht fell 0.6% against the dollar, the most among its Asian peers. The surge in crude oil prices continues to weigh on the currency. The South Korean won fell 0.4% against the dollar after South Korea's central bank kept its policy interest rate steady ‌on Friday and said the war in West Asia could slow down growth and worsen inflation. The Singapore dollar fell 0.1% against the dollar.

 

The Hong Kong dollar, Taiwan dollar, and Chinese yuan were mostly stable against the greenback. Bucking the trend, the Malaysian ringgit rose 0.3% against the dollar. (Divya Moolayattil) 

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Apr 10

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	92.70	92.30
Private-sector bank	93.00	92.40
Foreign bank	92.80	92.50
Foreign bank	93.00	92.30
Brokerage firm	92.90	92.40
Brokerage firm	92.95	92.25
Brokerage firm	93.00	92.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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