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Informist, Thursday, Apr. 9, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

MUMBAI – The rupee recouped majority of its losses and ended off its day's low against the dollar as banks continued to unwind their remaining arbitrage trades between the onshore and non-deliverable forwards markets ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's Friday deadline for authorised dealers to trim their onshore net open positions at $100 million, dealers said.

The rupee was weighed down by a jump in crude oil prices, a sharp fall in domestic equities, and persistent dollar purchases by banks on behalf of importers during the day, they said. After hitting a low of 92.9275 a dollar during the day, the Indian unit settled at 92.6575 on Thursday, against 92.5800 on Wednesday. 

 

"The market was swinging both ways today (Thursday). There is pressure from both ends on the rupee," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "However, I think most of the arbitrage books of banks has been squared off by now." 

Other Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.6% against the dollar, with the Philippine peso being the worst hit. The Indian unit was in a relatively better position compared to its peers and was the second-best performer Thursday after the Thai baht.

 

The Indian unit started the day lower against the dollar due to rise in crude oil prices, as the two-week US-Israel-Iran ceasefire began to show cracks. Israel attacked the Iran-aligned Hezbollah in Lebanon on Wednesday, while Tehran accused both Israel and the US of violating the agreement and said that proceeding with peace talks would be "unreasonable." The Strait of Hormuz also remained shut to vessels sailing without a permit. 

 

US President Donald Trump Thursday threatened Iran that all US ships, aircraft, and ‌military personnel will stay in and around Iran until it fully complied with the "real agreement." Brent crude futures for June delivery traded at $97.90 a barrel at 1530 IST, after settling at $94.75 a barrel Wednesday. 

 

Risk appetite among investors took a beating as uncertainty around the West Asia war continued to linger, weighing on the Indian unit. Domestic equities fell sharply Thursday, with the Sensex and Nifty 50 settling 1.2% and 0.9% lower, respectively. 

 

Further, banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, fearing further depreciation of the Indian unit, given the global uncertainty, dealers said. "Importers are booking at these levels, maybe not that actively since rupee has been trading in this range for quite some time now," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

However, the Indian currency recovered most of its losses as banks continued to unwind their remaining arbitrage trades between the onshore and offshore markets, dealers said. Banks have likely cut down on a majority of their abritrage positions to meet the RBI's directions which aim to curb speculative bets and volatility in the exchange rate. "I think the big PSUs (state-owned banks) who were holding back their positions have also unwound now," a dealer at another state-owned bank said. "Most of the arbitrage has been closed now."

 

Meanwhile, some dealers speculated that the RBI likely intervened through dollar sales in the last leg of trade, which supported the Indian unit and prevented it from falling past the 93-per-dollar mark.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.6575	92.6600	92.5300	92.9275	92.5800
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	296.95	284.88	298.33	284.88	288.55

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended higher as banks bought forward dollars for importers, who fear the rupee will depreciate further, the dealers said. The rupee has fallen over 2% against the dollar since the war in West Asia began on Feb. 28.

 

However, the rise in premiums was limited as banks sold forward dollars to unwind their arbitrage positions between the onshore and non-deliverable forward markets. 

 

Dealers see technical support for the one-year forward premium at 3.30%. The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.20% at 1530 IST, up from Wednesday's close of 3.10%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 296.95 paise, against 288.55 paise Wednesday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Friday, the rupee will take cues from movement of crude oil prices in view of further developments related to the war in West Asia, dealers said. The Indian unit may also take cues from movement in the dollar index, they said. Iranian negotiators are due to meet a delegation led by US Vice President J.D. Vance on Saturday for the first peace talks of the war, as per media reports.

 

"Tomorrow (Friday) is the day of RBI's deadline. After this, the market is going to be completely taking cues from the war," a dealer at another state-owned bank said. "Every move in crude will be looked at closely." 

 

The rupee will continue to be supported by banks' unwinding of remaining arbitrage positions between the onshore and offshore markets, they said. "I think the market will be choppy going ahead as after the RBI directions we will see thin liquidity in the market, there will be no speculative positions as well," the dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

However, importers are likely to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee rate, exerting pressure on the Indian unit, dealers said. Sustained FPI outflows are also likely to be a pain point for the Indian unit, they said. 

 

Dealers see immediate technical support for the Indian currency at 93.00 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 92.50-93.00 against the dollar Friday. A breach of 93.00 a dollar may gradually push the Indian unit towards 93.50, dealers said. 

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India Rupee - World FX:Dlr index steady amid West Asia ceasefire uncertainty

 

	AT 1616 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3403	1.3414	1.3381	1.3396
EUR/USD	1.1676	1.1680	1.1651	1.1664
NZD/USD	0.5832	0.5838	0.5817	0.5817
AUD/USD	0.7031	0.7048	0.7022	0.7046
USD/JPY	159.0050	159.1090	158.5160	158.4460
USD/CAD	1.3855	1.3860	1.3845	1.3836
EUR/JPY	185.6300	185.6846	184.9020	184.9010
CHF/USD	1.2637	1.2650	1.2622	1.2638
EUR/CHF	0.9239	0.9241	0.9221	0.9228

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index was broadly steady as investors remained uncertain over the continuance of the ceasefire agreed to by the US, Iran and Israel. At 1500 IST, the dollar index was 99.01, almost flat compared to Wednesday's level.

 

Israel on Wednesday launched one of its largest strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which killed more than 200 people and injured over thousands. Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz again, triggering a sharp rise in oil prices. At 1500 IST, Brent crude prices jumped to $97.64 a barrel Thursday from $94.75 a barrel Wednesday. US President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran "bigger, better, like never before" if it fails to comply with the ceasefire. 

 

The euro fell 0.3% against the dollar after rising 1% Wednesday as uncertainty about the ceasefire dampened investors' sentiment. The pound sterling fell 0.5% against the dollar. The Canadian dollar was 0.1% lower against the greenback. 

 

The Japanese yen fell 0.3% against the US unit as oil prices rose after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and attacked Saudi Arabia's key oil pipeline. Changes in oil prices impact Japan as it relies heavily on imports. The Swiss franc fell 0.4% and the Swedish krona fell 1% against the dollar.

 

Meanwhile, in the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's March policy meeting released Wednesday, Fed officials' comments signalled that a prolonged conflict in West Asia could force them to raise interest rates. Policymakers broadly agreed that holding rates steady for now was the right call, with almost all of them backing no change in rates in March. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premium up as importers buy fwd dlr on fear rupee may fall more

 

	AT 1505 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.7150	92.6600	92.5300	92.9275	92.5800
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	297.45	284.87	298.33	284.87	288.55

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose as banks bought forward dollars for importers, who fear the rupee will depreciate further, the dealers said. "Right now, there are no factors supporting the rupee. The ceasefire was breached and oil is rising, so the importers are on buying side," said a dealer at a foreign bank.

 

The rupee has fallen over 2% against the dollar since the war in West Asia began on Feb. 28. Dealers expect further depreciation of the Indian unit amid uncertainties related to the war in West Asia. Israel attacked Lebanon just a day after the ceasefire was agreed to by the US and Iran on Wednesday. In retaliation, Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz and attacked Saudi Arabia's key oil pipeline. On Thursday, the rupee fell to a low of 92.9275 a dollar compared to its previous close of 92.5800.

 

"The global factor are driving the rupee now. Any announcement or change in the current scenario will change the direction of the rupee," the dealer said. At 1505 IST, the June futures of Brent crude was $98.16 a barrel, up from $94.75 a barrel Wednesday.

 

Dealers expect the rupee to also depreciate after the RBI's deadline for banks to limit the onshore net open positions to $100 million expires Friday. The RBI recently issued measures to curb volatility in the exchange rate.

 

However, the rise in premiums was limited as banks sold forward dollars to unwind their arbitrage positions between the onshore and non-deliverable forward markets. "Banks have almost unwound all their positions, so the rupee is likely to stay in the current range of 92.60-93.00 for this week," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

Dealers see technical support for the one-year forward premium at 3.30%. The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.21% at 1505 IST, up from Wednesday's close of 3.10%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 297.45 paise, against 288.55 paise Wednesday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Falls as crude oil prices rise, banks buy dollars for importers

 

	AT 1240 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.7200	92.6600	92.5300	92.7800	92.5800

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell against the dollar as crude oil prices rose over 2% and risk sentiment among investors dampened after Israel launched wave of attacks on Lebanon and breached the ceasefire agreement, dealers said. In retaliation, Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz again, according to media reports. At 1120 IST, Brent crude June futures were $97.11 a barrel, up from $94.75 a barrel Wednesday. 

 

Further, banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, who fear further depreciation of the rupee, dealers said. However, the purchases were not aggressive in nature, they said. "The demand (for dollars) from importers is there... Since the liquidity is thin now, a bid as small as $50 million could also move the market. But as the day advances, we may see more demand from importers," a dealer from a private sector bank said.

 

A fall in domestic equity indices also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. At 1240 IST, Nifty 50 and Sensex fell were down 0.6% and 0.9%, respectively. 

 

However, losses for the Indian unit were limited as banks sold dollars to unwind arbitrage positions to meet the Reserve Bank of India's new norm that mandates banks to limit onshore net open positions to $100 million by Friday. "The rupee is likely to stay at 92.80 levels as banks are looking to close positions and importers are also buying dollar. A movement of 20 paise is not really much," a dealer at a public sector bank said.  

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 92.50 and 92.85 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.80 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Apr 9

 

MUMBAI – At 1115 IST, the rupee was at 92.6875 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 92.6600 a dollar, against the previous close of 92.5800 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	93.10	93.00	92.40	92.20
Private-sector bank	93.00	92.95	92.45	92.15
Private-sector bank	93.00	92.80	92.45	92.35
Foreign bank	93.00	92.80	92.40	92.20
Brokerage firm	93.10	92.95	92.20	92.00
Brokerage firm	93.50	92.90	92.20	91.80

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Erases most opening losses as banks unwind arbitrage trades

 

	AT 1000 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.6075	92.6600	92.5300	92.7125	92.5800

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased most of its opening losses and was broadly steady against the dollar as banks continued to unwind their arbitrage positions between the onshore and non-deliverable forward markets as the Reserve Bank of India's Friday deadline to ensure onshore net open positions at $100 million nears, dealers said. 

 

"Banks will square up their positions today, but not aggressively. A major chunk of unwinding is done. Now there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the ceasefire. The market will see the direction of oil and indicies today," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

The Indian unit opened lower as crude oil prices rose after Israel and Iran breached the ceasefire just a day after they agreed to it. "The market will be mostly range bound today (Thursday) unless there is a major announcement or shift in the geopolitical factors," the dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

Israel claimed it launched 100 strikes on Lebanon in 10 minutes. The strike killed 112 people and injured 837, according to the Lebanese health ministry. While Israel said the ceasefire deal did not extend to Lebanon, Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz after the ceasefire deal was breached, media reports said. At 1000 IST, Brent crude June futures was at $96.77 a barrel, up from $94.75 a barrel Wednesday. 

 

Dealers expect importers to buy dollars, fearing depreciation of the rupee amid the uncertainty related to the war in West Asia, weighing on the rupee. "Importers are likely to come in aggressively in the second-half of the day after they assess the whole geopolitical situation," a dealer at a brokerage firm said. 

 

Dealers also expect foreign portfolio outflows from Indian markets, weighing on the Indian unit. Foreign portfolio investors have pulled out around $3.78 billion from the Indian market so far in April. The Nifty and Sensex fell Thursday after gaining nearly 4?ch Wednesday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 92.30 and 92.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.80 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as crude up after breach of West Asia truce

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar in early trade Thursday as the two-week ceasefire was breached just a day after the US, Israel, and Iran agreed to it. Israel Wednesday launched a wave of attacks on Lebanon that killed over 180 people and injured more than a thousand, saying the ceasefire deal did not include Lebanon. 

 

According to Iranian media reports, Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz again after the truce was violated. At 0910 IST, Brent crude June futures were up over 2% at $96.70 a barrel, against $94.75 a barrel Wednesday. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the terms were clear regarding Lebanon, and the US must choose between "ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both." 

 

The Philippine peso fell 0.4% against the dollar, after it hit a one-month high Wednesday. The peso was the worst hit among its Asian peers. 

 

The South Korean won fell 0.1% against the greenback, after surging 1.5% on Wednesday, due to a rise in oil prices Thursday. South Korea is vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices as it is the world's fourth-largest importer of oil, with around 70% coming from the Gulf. 

 

The Malaysian ringgit and the Taiwan dollar fell 0.2% against the dollar. Taiwan's foreign exchange monthly reserves dropped to $596.9 billion in March, the lowest level in 15 years, according to Taiwan's central bank data released Tuesday.

 

The Hong Kong dollar, the Thai baht, the Chinese yuan, and the Singapore dollar were broadly stable against the dollar as investors remained cautious owing to growing doubts about whether the war in West Asia would end anytime soon. (Divya Moolayattil) 

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Apr 9

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	93.00	92.20
Private-sector bank	92.80	92.40
Private-sector bank	92.80	92.30
Private-sector bank	92.95	92.45
Foreign bank	93.00	92.20
Foreign bank	92.75	92.35
Brokerage firm	93.00	92.00
Brokerage firm	92.95	92.14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil and Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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