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Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 8, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended at a three-week high against the dollar Wednesday as crude oil prices slumped and domestic equities surged after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, dealers said. A fall in the dollar index to nearly a month's low also supported the Indian unit, they said.  

 

However, gains for the Indian unit were limited as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, they said. "Market has turned positive, but there is still some caution in the air," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Things can change anytime, anything can happen overnight."

 

The rupee settled at 92.5800 a dollar on Wednesday, almost 0.5% higher than its previous close of 93.0075. Other Asian currencies gained 0.5-1.7% against the dollar, with the Thai baht being the best performer. The Indian currency was one of the worst performers amongst peers. 

 

Brent crude oil prices slipped almost 14% Wednesday after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire to negotiate a definitive peace agreement between the warring parties. Brent crude futures for June delivery traded at $94.96 a barrel at 1530 IST, against $109.27 a barrel at close Tuesday. Prices hit a low of $91.70 a barrel during the day, its lowest since Mar. 11.  

 

Israel also supported US President Donald Trump's decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said on Wednesday that the country backed the US move, provided Tehran immediately opened the Strait of Hormuz and stopped attacks against the US, Israel and countries in the region.

 

Following the ceasefire announcement, risk appetite among investors also improved, further supporting the Indian unit, dealers said. Domestic equities surged Wednesday, with the Nifty 50 and Sensex ending 3.8% and 4.0% higher, respectively. 

 

The dollar index declined as demand for the safe-haven currency slowed after the news of the truce, aiding the Indian unit, dealers said. The dollar index was at 98.80 at 1530 IST, against 99.52 on Tuesday and 99.99 on Monday.

 

The Indian unit also found support as banks continued to sell dollars to unwind arbitrage positions between offshore and onshore markets, dealers said, as the Reserve Bank of India's Friday deadline to ensure onshore net open positions of $100 million nears.

 

Meanwhile, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said on Wednesday that the central bank's recent regulatory measures in the foreign exchange segment are neither permanent nor structural. "In the last few weeks of March, there was heightened volatility in the forex market. We saw that positions were being built up leading to arbitrage positions between the non-deliverable forward market and deliverable market," he said at the post-policy press conference. 

 

While some market participants cheered Malhotra's statement, most said that the clarification does not change anything for the market since the damage has already been done. "I think the norms may stay in place till the Iran war continues to be a pain," a dealer at a foreign bank said. "But these things are not that simple. They can't be undone so easily. People have already cut down on their NDF exposure." 

 

Meanwhile, some banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to take advantage of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. This limited gains for the Indian unit. "The market is waiting for more clarity and some time to pass after the ceasefire. So, the dips (in dollar-rupee) are being bought," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.5800	92.6400	92.4750	92.6875	93.0075
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	288.55	282.18	292.36	280.27	303.27

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums ended lower as banks continued to sell dollars for forward delivery to unwind arbitrage positions and meet the RBI's deadline to limit onshore net open positions to $100 million by Friday, dealers said. The one-year dollar-rupee premium fell nearly 25 basis points to a low of 3.01%. 

 

A sharp fall in US Treasury yields after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire also supported the premiums, they said. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.26% Wednesday from 4.34% Tuesday.

 

Meanwhile, losses on forward premiums were limited as importers bought dollars for forward delivery, noting the relatively lower levels, dealers said. The one-year forward premium has fallen nearly 90 bps from the near four-year high of 3.94% it hit on Monday. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.10%, down from Tuesday's close of 3.26%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 288.55 paise, against 303.27 paise Tuesday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Thursday, the rupee will take cues from crude oil price movements amid further developments related to the war in West Asia, dealers said. The Indian unit may also take cues from movement in the dollar index, they said. 

 

"This easing in oil prices has provided significant relief to the rupee, as lower energy costs improve macro stability. However, the sustainability of the move depends on how long the ceasefire holds and the normalisation of supply through the Strait of Hormuz," said Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst - commodity and currency at LKP Securities. "Near-term, support is seen around 93.25, while resistance is placed near 92.10."

 

The rupee will continue to be supported by banks' continued unwinding of arbitrage positions between the onshore and offshore markets, they said. However, importers are likely to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee rate, weighing on the Indian unit, dealers said. 

 

Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the Indian currency at 92.30 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 92.30-93.00 against the dollar Thursday. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index hits 1-mo low after US-Iran ceasefire

 

	AT 1530 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3429	1.3446	1.3289	1.3295
EUR/USD	1.1683	1.1709	1.1590	1.1592
NZD/USD	0.5819	0.5850	0.5726	0.5729
AUD/USD	0.7037	0.7085	0.6967	0.6963
USD/JPY	158.4440	159.7400	158.0500	159.5030
USD/CAD	1.3867	1.3900	1.3825	1.3888
EUR/JPY	185.1100	185.5530	184.8000	185.0500
CHF/USD	1.2680	1.2703	1.2529	1.2530
EUR/CHF	0.9213	0.9257	0.9207	0.9253

MUMBAI – The dollar index fell to a near one-month low Wednesday as demand for the safe-haven asset reduced after the US, Israel, and Iran agreed to pause military strikes on each other for two weeks. Iran also agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage of ships for two weeks. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was 98.84, down from 99.52 Tuesday.

Crude oil prices slumped after the announcement of the ceasefire late Tuesday, supporting the currencies. Brent crude futures for June delivery traded at $94.33 a barrel at 1530 IST, after settling at $109.27 a barrel Tuesday.

 

The euro rose nearly 1% against the dollar as risk sentiment improved after the ceasefire was announced. Data released Wednesday showed Eurozone's retail sales edged lower by 0.2% on month in February and were in line with market expectations. The pound sterling rose 1.2% against the dollar.   

 

The Japanese yen surged nearly 1% against the dollar. Japan is highly vulnerable to changes in oil prices as it is heavily dependent on oil imports. The Swiss franc and the Swedish krona rose 1.2% and nearly 2% against the dollar, respectively. The Canadian dollar rose 0.5% against the dollar. (Divya Moolayattil) 

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India Rupee: Fwd premiums sharply down as banks unwind arbitrage positions

 

	AT 1450 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.6150	92.6400	92.4700	92.6875	93.0075
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	285.50	282.18	292.36	280.27	303.27

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell sharply as banks continued to sell dollars for forward delivery to unwind arbitrage positions, to meet the Reserve Bank of India's deadline to limit the onshore net open positions at $100 million by Friday, dealers said. The one-year dollar-rupee premium fell nearly 25 basis points to a low of 3.01%. 

 

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said Wednesday that the latest foreign exchange measures were taken as the central bank noticed high volatility in the market and a build-up of arbitrage positions. However, he added that these norms are not permanent. 

 

Meanwhile, losses for forward premiums were limited as importers bought dollars for forward delivery, noting the relatively lower levels, dealers said. "The premiums were very high earlier. It has fallen from a near 4% to around 3%, so the importers are finding this an attractive level to re-enter," said a dealer at a private sector bank. The one-year forward premium has fallen almost 90 bps from the near four-year high of 3.94% it hit on Monday. 

 

At 1450 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.06%, lower than Tuesday's close of 3.26%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 285.50 paise, against 303.27 paise Tuesday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Falls a bit from day's high; no impact of RBI governor's comments

 

	AT 1313 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.6000	92.6400	92.4850	92.6875	93.0075

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained range-bound and fell 10 paise from the day's high after the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee kept the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25%. "There isn't much impact on the rupee from the comments of governor (RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra), the situation is okay now," a dealer at a private sector bank said. At 1115 IST, the rupee was 92.6250 to a dollar, almost back to its opening level of 92.6400 a dollar and down from its intraday high of 92.4700 before the RBI governor's statement. 

 

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the central bank's exchange rate policy was unchanged and that its intervention in the foreign exchange market was to control undue volatility in the market. The RBI had asked banks to limit their onshore net open positions to $100 million by Apr. 10. The rupee has risen over 2% since RBI announced this measure. 

 

Malhotra said foreign exchange reserves were at $697.1 billion as on Apr. 3 and that these were adequate to cover imports for 11 months. India's foreign exchange reserves were at a record level of $728.49 billion on Feb. 27. 

 

"RBI's deadline to comply with the new norms is nearing, so the banks will continue to sell the dollar," a dealer at a brokerage firm said. Dealers said that foreign fund inflows in equities also supported the Indian currency. At 1154 IST, the Nifty and Sensex were up nearly 4%. Both indices have fallen around 9% since the war began.

 

"All the factors are positive today...indices and oil are in favour due to the ceasefire deal," the dealer at the brokerage firm said. The US, Israel, and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Iran also agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks and allow safe passage of ships through the waterway in coordination with the Iranian revolutionary guards. At 1311 IST, Brent crude June futures were at $94.97 a barrel, sharply down from $109.27 a barrel Tuesday. 

 

The recent US-Iran ceasefire agreement has cooled risk-off sentiment, weakening the dollar index and supporting the rupee. At 1312 IST, the dollar index was at 98.80, down sharply from 99.51 Tuesday. The index was at 97.64 on Feb. 27, before the war began. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 92.50 and 92.75 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 92.50 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Apr 8

 

MUMBAI – At 1131 IST, the rupee was at 92.5700 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 92.6400 a dollar, against the previous close of 93.0075 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private-sector bank	93.00	92.80	92.18	91.95
Private-sector bank	92.80	92.70	92.40	92.20
Foreign bank	93.85	92.75	92.50	92.40
Brokerage firm	93.10	92.95	92.50	92.14
Brokerage firm	93.80	93.20	92.50	92.10

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Up sharply as oil falls on ceasefire; exporters sell dollars

 

	AT 1000 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.5600	92.6400	92.5400	92.6875	93.0075

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar as oil prices fell sharply after the US, Israel, and Iran agreed to a ceasefire for two weeks, dealers said. "Iran opening the strait passage has increased the hope of more positive developments in West Asia war," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

Market participants said exporters would sell dollars, fearing further appreciation of the rupee. "We will see very significant dollar sales by exporters today. At 92.55 (against the dollar), there was a lot of selling," the dealer said. 

 

Banks will continue to unwind their arbitrage positions between non-deliverable forwards and onshore markets, further supporting the rupee, dealers said. "The RBI's deadline is just two days away now, so we will see the banks selling dollars," a dealer at a private bank said. The RBI's new rule mandates all authorised dealers to trim their onshore net open positions to $100 million by Friday.

 

Dealers expect dollar demand to be subdued today as importers are in a wait-and-watch mode. "The buying won't be much today. Around 92.50-92.75 a dollar, the importers are likely to come," the dealer said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 92.50 and 92.75 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 92.50 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

 

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Up sharply on ceasefire; South Korean won gains most

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies rose sharply against the dollar after the US, Israel, and Iran agreed to a ceasefire for two weeks. Iran said it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage of ships for two weeks. The ceasefire deal heightened investors' hopes that the war would end soon. The South Korean won and Thai baht gained the most among their peers. 

 

The dollar index fell significantly in early trade Wednesday, which further supported Asian currencies. At 0840 IST, the dollar index was at 98.96, down from 99.51 Tuesday and 99.99 Monday. 

 

The South Korean won rose 1.5% against the greenback. South Korea is the world's fourth-largest importer of oil, with around 70% coming from the Gulf. Investors expect Iran's decision to open the Hormuz strait for two weeks to provide huge relief to the country. The Thai baht rose 1.4% against the dollar early Wednesday. 

 

The Philippine peso rose 1.09% against the dollar. The Philippines' headline inflation rose to 4.1% in March, sharply higher than 2.4% in February and above the central bank's target of 4%. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' said Tuesday that risks to inflation had tilted sharply to the upside as the war in West Asia drove costs higher. The Malaysian ringgit rose 0.9% against the dollar. The Singapore dollar rose 0.5% against the dollar.

 

Bucking the trend, the Hong Kong dollar was broadly stable against the dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Apr 8

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	93.10	92.00
Private-sector bank	93.00	92.20
Private-sector bank	93.20	91.90
Private-sector bank	93.20	92.70
Foreign bank	93.30	92.70
Brokerage firm	92.95	92.14
Brokerage firm	93.00	92.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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